Richard Sharp’s research while affiliated with World Wildlife Fund and other places

Existing approaches to evaluating companies on sustainability-related issues include limited accounting of impacts on nature and its contributions to human well-being. Here we present an approach for quantifying the direct impacts of companies’ physical assets on nature based on global maps for eight ecosystem service and biodiversity metrics. We apply this approach to a set of over 2000 global, publicly traded companies with 580,000 mapped physical assets and find that companies in utility, real estate, materials, and financial sectors have the largest impacts on average, with substantial variation within all sectors. Using high-spatial-resolution satellite imagery to map individual mine footprints, we compare a set of active lithium mines and find that impacts vary substantially among mines and change over time. By using open-source models and drawing on the growing availability of high-spatial-resolution satellite imagery, this approach could provide more transparent measures of corporate impacts to nature for nature-related reporting.

Understanding the cooling service provided by vegetation in cities is important to inform urban policy and planning. However, the performance of decision-support tools estimating heat mitigation for urban greening strategies has not been evaluated systematically. Here, we further develop a calibration algorithm and evaluate the performance of the urban cooling model developed within the open-source InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) software. The urban cooling model estimates air temperature reduction due to vegetation based on four predictors, shade, evapotranspiration, albedo, and building density, and was designed for data-rich and data-scarce situations. We apply the calibration algorithm and evaluate the model in two case studies (Paris, France, and Minneapolis–St Paul, USA) by examining the spatial correlation between InVEST predictions and reference temperature data at a 1 km horizontal resolution. In both case studies, model performance was high for nighttime air temperatures, which are an important indicator of human wellbeing. After calibration, we found medium performance for surface temperatures during daytime but low performance for daytime air temperatures in both case studies, which may be due to model and data limitations. We illustrate the model adequacy for urban planning by testing its ability to simulate a green infrastructure scenario in the Paris case study. The predicted air temperature change compared well to that of an alternative physics-based model (r2=0.55 and r2=0.85 for daytime and nighttime air temperatures, respectively). Finally, we discuss opportunities and challenges for the use of such parsimonious decision-support tools, highlighting their importance to mainstream ecosystem services information for urban planning.

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Meeting global commitments to conservation, climate, and sustainable development requires consideration of synergies and tradeoffs among targets. We evaluate the spatial congruence of ecosystems providing globally high levels of nature’s contributions to people, biodiversity, and areas with high development potential across several sectors. We find that conserving approximately half of global land area through protection or sustainable management could provide 90% of the current levels of ten of nature’s contributions to people and meet minimum representation targets for 26,709 terrestrial vertebrate species. This finding supports recent commitments by national governments under the Global Biodiversity Framework to conserve at least 30% of global lands and waters, and proposals to conserve half of the Earth. More than one-third of areas required for conserving nature’s contributions to people and species are also highly suitable for agriculture, renewable energy, oil and gas, mining, or urban expansion. This indicates potential conflicts among conservation, climate and development goals.

Coastal ecosystems have the potential to contribute to disaster risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. While previous studies have estimated the value of current coastal ecosystems for reducing coastal risk, there have been relatively few studies that look at changes in ecosystem service provision, in the past and under climate change. We employ the probabilistic, event-based CLImate ADAptation platform (CLIMADA) to quantify the protection from tropical cyclones (TCs) provided by coastal ecosystems, modeling the number of beneficiaries in the past and under future climate change. We also investigate the potential of nature-based solutions (NbS), such as mangrove restoration. We find that currently, one in five (21%) of all people impacted annually by TCs in the global low-elevation coastal zone is within the protection distance of coastal ecosystems. Over the last 30 years, the share of protected people has decreased by approximately 2%, due to ecosystem loss. With climate change, the average annual number of people impacted will increase by 40%. Simultaneously, the proportion of people protected by coastal ecosystems with climate change decreases due to changes in TC distribution (−1%). The importance of current coastal protection, and the potential for increasing protection by NbS, varies widely between countries. While the number of people protected globally only increases slightly with mangrove restoration, the share of people protected in individual countries can increase by up to 39%. Our findings provide a basis for NbS planning and adaptation policy, by highlighting areas which will be crucial for coastal protection services in a world altered by climate change.

Understanding the cooling service provided by vegetation in cities is important to inform urban policy and planning. However, the performance of decision-support tools estimating heat mitigation for urban greening strategies is not systematically evaluated. Here, we develop a calibration algorithm and evaluate the performance of the Urban Cooling model developed within the open-source InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) software. The Urban Cooling model estimates air temperature reduction due to vegetation based on four predictors: shade provision, evapotranspiration, albedo, and building density and was designed for data-rich and data-scarce situations. We apply the calibration algorithm and evaluate the model in two case studies (Paris, France, and Minneapolis-St Paul, USA) by examining the spatial correlation between InVEST predictions and reference temperature data at 1-km horizontal resolution. In both case studies, model performance was high for nighttime air temperatures, which is an important indicator of human wellbeing. After calibration, we found a medium performance for surface temperatures during daytime but a low performance for daytime air temperatures in both case studies, which may be due to model and data limitations. We illustrate the model adequacy for urban planning by testing its ability to simulate a green infrastructure scenario in the Paris case study. The predicted air temperature change compared well with that of an alternative physics-based model (r2=0.55 and r2=0.85, for air daytime and nighttime temperatures, respectively). Finally, we discuss opportunities and challenges for the use of such parsimonious decision-support tools, highlighting their importance to mainstream ecosystem services information in urban planning.

Coastal ecosystems have the potential to contribute to disaster risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. While previous studies have estimated the value of current coastal ecosystems for reducing coastal risk, there have been relatively few studies that look at changes in ecosystem service provision, in the past and under climate change. We employ the probabilistic, event-based CLIMADA platform to quantify the protection from tropical cyclones provided by coastal ecosystems, modeling the number of beneficiaries in the past and under future climate change. We also investigate the potential of Nature-based Solutions (NbS), such as mangrove restoration. We find that currently, one in five (21%) of all people impacted annually by tropical cyclones in the global low-elevation coastal zone is within the protection distance of coastal ecosystems. Over the last 30 years, the share of protected people has decreased by approximately 2%, due to ecosystem loss. With climate change, the average annual number of people impacted will increase by 40%. Simultaneously, the proportion of people protected by coastal ecosystems with climate change decreases due to changes in tropical cyclone distribution (-1%). The importance of current coastal protection, and the potential for increasing protection by NbS, varies widely between countries. While the number of people protected globally only increases slightly with mangrove restoration, protection in individual countries can increase by up to 39%. Our findings provide a basis for NbS planning and adaptation policy, by highlighting areas which will be crucial for coastal protection services in a world altered by climate change.

The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework is a worldwide plan to urgently address and reverse biodiversity loss, intending to achieve a harmonious relationship between humanity and nature by 2050. This paper seeks to contribute to operationalising the framework, specifically concerning biodiversity conservation and nature's contributions to people. Using a global analytical approach, we identify optimised areas for conservation, restoration and agriculture, considering food production, urban expansion, population growth, and climate change projections. By formulating scenarios for increasing natural areas enabled by improvements in agricultural productivity and trade, and considering local and global constraints on restoration actions, we analyse potential outcomes for biodiversity and people. Our findings demonstrate that an optimised spatial allocation of land use could substantially mitigate projected negative impacts and even surpass the current situation, leading to significant socio-environmental gains. However, the best global scenarios for nature and people require integrated planning that considers mitigating climate change, reducing human pressure on natural habitats, increasing trade, and changing human behaviour. Aligning efforts to protect and restore nature with broader sustainability goals through coordinated and transformative action is central to implement the Global Biodiversity Framework and delivery of a more sustainable future.