Rebecca Ray’s research while affiliated with Boston University and other places

Rapid coastal development continues to jeopardize the integrity of marine socio-ecological systems. China is now the largest bilateral creditor of overseas development finance, and there are growing concerns over the impacts of this boom in Chinese development finance on marine systems. Here, we quantify the risks of coastal development projects financed by China to marine biodiversity and coastal Indigenous communities. Ports present the greatest impact risks to marine systems, with power plants, roads, and other facilities presenting relatively high localized risks. Risks are most prominent in Africa and the Caribbean, with coastal Indigenous communities in Western Africa at greatest risk from development. All projects present some risk to threatened marine species and potential critical habitats, but few present high risks to nearby protected areas. Mitigating these risks will require more social and environmental safeguards, higher standards for host country impact assessments, and greater integration of land-sea risk mitigation and management approaches.

In 2009, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reformed its lending arrangements and conditionality. Thereafter, it has pursued “parsimony,” emphasizing headline fiscal adjustments rather than detailed budgetary changes. This paper analyzes the extent to which these reforms have resulted in changes to the overall austerity required by IMF agreements. We create a new variable measuring the level of fiscal consolidation required in each IMF program from 2001 through 2021 the IMF Fiscal Adjustment Indicator (IMF FAI). We explore whether IMF austerity eased after the financial crisis and the later COVID-19 pandemic. We also estimate the economic and political determinants that help explain varying levels of IMF austerity across IMF programs during this period. We find that IMF conditions were less austere for the years of 2009 and 2020, but quickly returned to their previous levels, echoing the IMF’s advice to “keep the receipts” during crises. However, these temporary relaxations were not statistically significant, pointing to overarching continuity. We find that countries that were granted relatively more lenient conditionality were found to be those with closer relations with major shareholders of the IMF: Western Europe and the United States. In contrast, countries with close diplomatic relations with China face higher IMF austerity.

Despite the importance of preserving contiguous tropical forest areas to maintain biodiversity and terrestrial carbon stocks, methodological challenges continue to hinder broad-scale analysis of threats to these forests. Emerging Hot Spot Analysis (EHSA) is a spatial-statistical method that conveys complex information about the temporal dynamics of deforestation across a range of moderate to coarse spatial scales. Using Global Forest Change (GFC) data as inputs, EHSA produces spatially comprehensive, gridded outputs that represent a standardized, reproduceable way to instantiate contiguous forest tracts as spatial objects. Doing so allows aggregation of other GFC-derived values and analysis of alternative geographic configurations besides sub-national jurisdictions or protected areas, which can limit observation of finer scale variations. This paper illustrates the method’s utility to comprehensively characterize the magnitude and temporality of pressures facing the Selva Maya, a transboundary forest region with extensive areas under conservation that covers portions of Mexico, Guatemala, and Belize.

Rapid coastal development continues to jeopardize the integrity of marine socio-ecological systems. China is now the largest bilateral creditor in the world, committing nearly half a trillion US dollars to overseas development finance since 2008. Meanwhile, there are growing concerns over the impacts of this boom in Chinese development finance on marine systems. Here, we quantify the risks of coastal development projects financed by China to marine biodiversity and coastal Indigenous communities. Ports present the greatest impact risks to marine systems, in terms of both magnitude and area at risk, with power plants, roads, and other facilities presenting relatively high localized risks. Risks are most prominent in Africa and the Caribbean, with coastal Indigenous communities in Western and Central Africa particularly vulnerable to the potential negative impacts of development. All projects present some risk to threatened marine species and potential critical habitats, but few present high risks to nearby marine protected areas. Most projects present additional risks to ecosystems that are already under increasing human pressures, but some are likely to introduce new risks to relatively intact ecosystems. “Bluing” future coastal development projects in China’s overseas development finance portfolio will require more social and environmental safeguards, higher standards for host-country impact assessments, and greater integration of land-sea risk mitigation and management approaches.

Rapid development has become a global priority as countries strive to meet the UN Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. Sustainable development is crucial for increasing human well-being in emerging economies while avoiding perverse outcomes on livelihoods, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) promises to help countries reach their national goals for economic growth, trade, and development, but there remain widespread concerns over how this boom in Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) will impact social-ecological systems. Here, we discuss the risks implicit in BRI-related FDI projects to ecosystems and local communities, and how these risks can be mitigated or exacerbated by national governance of BRI projects and national development policies. We frame our discussion around Indonesia, where convoluted governance of some of the largest Chinese FDI projects may reduce accountability, and a recent job creation law brings risks of rapid unsustainable development practices across this biodiversity hotspot.

Among the drivers of socio-economic development, this article focuses on an important yet insufficiently understood international-level determinant: the spread of austerity policies to the developing world by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In offering loans to developing countries in exchange for policy reforms, the IMF typically sets the fiscal parameters within which development occurs. Using an original dataset of IMF-mandated austerity targets, we examine how policy reforms prescribed in IMF programs affect inequality and poverty. Our empirical analyses span a panel of up to 79 countries for the period 2002–2018. Using instrumentation techniques, we control for the possibility that these relationships are driven by the IMF imposing harsher austerity measures precisely in countries with more problematic economies. Our findings show that stricter austerity is associated with greater income inequality for up to two years, and that this effect is driven by concentrating income to the top 10% of earners while all other deciles lose out. We also find that stricter austerity is associated with higher poverty headcounts and poverty gaps. Taken together, our findings suggest that the IMF neglects the multiple ways its own policy advice contributed to social inequity in the developing world.

Pressure to facilitate the flow of commodities and capital across global and national markets has translated into narratives and programs prioritizing integration and development of forested regions. The 2009 World Bank Development Report argues that to reduce distance, infrastructure development is crucial. The infrastructure imperative, however, reworks a broader array of investment flows, property regimes, forest cover, and socio-political rights across scales as it drives increases in the speed of commodity extraction, production, mobility, and consumption. With illustrations from Amazonia and Selva Maya, the paper proposes ‘tradescapes’ as a useful framework to analyze infrastructure projects as part of multi-scalar mega-corridor networks and financial flows. Tradescapes transform relations between society, territory, and environment, with implications for infrastructure governance, resilience, and sustainability.

China has become one of the world’s largest lenders in overseas development finance. Development projects, such as roads, railways and power plants, often drive biodiversity loss and infringe on Indigenous lands, yet the risks implicit in China’s overseas development finance are poorly understood. Here we examine the extent to which projects financed by China’s policy banks between 2008 and 2019 occur within and adjacent to areas where large-scale investment can present considerable risks to biodiversity and Indigenous peoples. Further, we compare these risks with those posed by similar projects financed by the World Bank, previously the world’s largest source of development finance. We found that 63% of China-financed projects overlap with critical habitats, protected areas or Indigenous lands, with up to 24% of the world’s threatened birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians potentially impacted by the projects. Hotspots of the risks are primarily distributed in northern sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia and parts of South America. Overall, China’s development projects pose greater risks than those of the World Bank, particularly within the energy sector. These results provide an important global outlook of socio-ecological risks that can guide strategies for greening China’s development finance around the world. The authors assess the risks to global biodiversity and Indigenous lands arising from projects financed by China’s policy banks between 2008 and 2019, and compare that with the risks associated with similar projects financed by the World Bank.

China is now the world’s largest source of bilateral development finance and will likely continue to play a prominent role in sovereign lending through its multi-billion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative. This paper introduces major methodological enhancements in tracking this finance: the use of an original application programming interface (API) to gathers news in multiple languages; double-verification of every record to ensure every finance commitment has been formalized; and visual geo-location to trace the precise footprint of every project. The resulting dataset enables economic, environmental, and social analyses with high-precision spatial accuracy, as well as spatiotemporal monitoring by project stakeholders and enhanced planning by project managers. It covers the years 2008–2019 to enable analysis before and after the announcement of the Belt and Road Initiative. It includes 862 finance commitments, 669 of which have geographic location, to 94 countries across the world.