Randall J. Jones's research while affiliated with University of Central Oklahoma and other places

Publications (19)

Article
Full-text available
A Recap of the 2016 Election Forecasts - Volume 50 Issue 2 - James E. Campbell, Helmut Norpoth, Alan I. Abramowitz, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Charles Tien, James E. Campbell, Robert S. Erikson, Christopher Wlezien, Brad Lockerbie, Thomas M. Holbrook, Bruno Jerôme, Véronique Jerôme-Speziari, Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong, Randall J. Jones, Alfred...
Article
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The PollyVote Forecast for the 2016 American Presidential Election - Volume 49 Issue 4 - Andreas Graefe, Randall J. Jones, J. Scott Armstrong, Alfred G. Cuzán
Article
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We review the performance of the PollyVote, which combined forecasts from polls, prediction markets, experts’ judgment, political economy models, and index models to forecast the two-party popular vote in the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election. Throughout the election year the PollyVote provided highly accurate forecasts, outperforming each of its com...
Article
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We summarize the literature on the effectiveness of combining forecasts by assessing the conditions under which combining is most valuable. Using data on the six US presidential elections from 1992 to 2012, we report the reductions in error obtained by averaging forecasts within and across four election forecasting methods: poll projections, expert...
Data
We summarize the literature on the effectiveness of combining forecasts by assessing the conditions under which combining is most valuable. Using data on the six US presidential elections from 1992 to 2012, we report the reductions in error obtained by averaging forecasts within and across four election forecasting methods: poll projections, expert...
Article
Full-text available
The present study reviews the accuracy of four methods for forecasting the 2013 German election: polls, prediction markets, expert judgment, and quantitative models. On average, across the two months prior to the election, polls were most accurate, with a mean absolute error of 1.4 percentage points, followed by quantitative models (1.6), expert ju...
Article
Forecasting is of value not only because it may tell us something about the political future. It also contributes to the development of theories of politics in several ways: First, the lag structure in forecasting models, necessary in generating predictions, is appropriate in causal models as well, linking cause to effect. Second, forecasting model...
Article
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Prior research found that people’s assessments of relative competence predicted the outcome of Senate and Congressional races. We hypothesized that snap judgments of "facial competence" would provide useful forecasts of the popular vote in presidential primaries before the candidates become well known to the voters. We obtained facial competence ra...
Article
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In the PollyVote, we evaluated the combination principle to forecast the five U.S. presidential elections between 1992 and 2008. We combined forecasts from three or four different component methods: trial heat polls, the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), quantitative models and, in the 2004 and 2008 contests, periodic surveys of experts on American po...
Conference Paper
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Prior research offers a mixed view of the value of expert surveys for long-term election forecasts. On the positive side, experts have more information about the candidates and issues than voters do. On the negative side, experts all have access to the same information. Based on prior literature and on our experiences with the 2004 presidential ele...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The outcome of the 2004 presidential election was forecast by applying the combination principle, a procedure which in other contexts has been shown to reduce forecast error. This forecasting technique involved averaging within and across four categories of methods (polls, Iowa Electronic Market quotes, quantitative models, and a Delphi survey of e...
Article
Full-text available
The outcome of the 2004 presidential election was forecast by applying the combination principle, a procedure which in other contexts has been shown to reduce forecast error. This forecasting technique involved averaging within and across four categories of methods (polls, Iowa Electronic Market quotes, quantitative models, and a Delphi survey of e...
Article
Even though the U.S. presidential election is still several months away, we now have early forecasts of considerable reliability. In this article, Randy Jones discusses the methods used, presents the latest forecasts they provide, and suggests Internet links to follow for updates during the remaining campaign.
Article
Abstract The outcome of the 2004 presidential election was forecast by applying the combination principle, aprocedure,which in other contexts has been shown ,to reduce ,forecast error. This forecasting technique involved averaging within and across fourcategories of methods (polls, Iowa Electronic Market quotes, quantitative models, and a Delphi su...
Article
Full-text available
In this year's presidential election, as in 2004, the Pollyvote applied the evidence-based principle of combining all credible forecasts (Armstrong 2001) to predict the election outcome. Pollyvote is calculated by averaging within and across four components for forecasting the incumbent's share of the two-party vote, weighting them all equally. The...

Citations

... Here V i shows i-th variable such as economy, past party position, etc., and i shows ith hyper-parameter to weight these variables. Campbell et al. (2017) looks at ten similar models for prediction of 2016 USA presidential election forecasting and Tien and Lewis-Beck (2016) reports that these models were better in forecasting than polls. These models can be divided into three categories: structural, aggregations and synthetic models (Dassonneville and Lewis-Beck 2014). ...
... This is not trivial, because when raters recognize the candidates their ratings might no longer rely on appearance alone but also depend on the candidate's person or party. Different strategies have been adopted as solutions, such as using only the shapes of the candidates' faces (Little, Apicella, & Marlowe, 2007), manipulating the photos (Armstrong et al., 2010), or assuring that raters do not know the politicians shown in the photos, for example, by recruiting raters from abroad. 9 We follow the latter approach and have opted to sample raters from Germany to evaluate pictures of U.S. politicians as these are not generally familiar to German citizens. ...
... International Journal of Applied Forecasting (Cuzán et al., 2005;Graefe et al., 2009Graefe et al., , 2013 A more sophisticated approach to increasing poll accuracy is to calculate "poll projections", as we term them. Poll projections take into account the historical record of the polls when making predictions of the election outcome. ...
... That said, it is nothing short of remarkable that as presently constituted it performs so accurately at retrodiction. It remains to be seen, however, whether this time it will pass the acid test that comes with forecasting (Jones 2011), a test that the previous version of the model failed in 2012. That year the bar was a relatively low one, since less than a handful of all presidents in the first term of a party reign have failed to win reelection, and most forecasting models made the right call (Campbell 2013). ...
... The possibility to gain large-scale rents also opens up the opportunity for corruption and misallocation of resources on a scale unmatched by most other types of state enterprise (Coronel, 1983; Aron, 1992). This makes the conventional wisdom regarding the virtues of joint public-private ventures, service contracts and management contracts much more problematic. ...
... s the days before election date, also called the forecast horizon. Due to the irregular time series structure, H * is the number of polls to be averaged.The average weights every poll equally and provides a forecast which puts equal weight on polls, irrespective of the sample size and recentness (also suggested byHyndman and Athanasopoulos (2013)).Cuzan, Armstrong and Jones (2005) calculate in their popular PollyVote approach the average of Delphi, experts, polls and quantitative models with equal weights. Also "wahlumfrage.de", compare Graefe (2015) computes the simple unweighted average the last 20 days before election of six pollsters in Germany (Forsa, FGW, Allensbach, GMS, Emnid and Infratest). ...
... Following this rule, the PollyVote has accurately forecast the outcome of the last three presidential elections by as much as a year in advance of Election Day. Updated twice a week in 2004(Cuzán, Armstrong and Jones, 2005a, 2005b) and in subsequent elections at least once daily, at no time has the PollyVote called the election for any other than the winner. Moreover, in every one of the 100 days prior to Election Day, the PollyVote forecast was more accurate than any of its component methods ( Graefe et. ...
... Economics and managerial articles focused on targets like: the number of tourist arrivals, defects in programming code, and monthly demand of products (Song et al., 2013;Kabak andÜlengin, 2008;Huang et al., 2016;Failing et al., 2004;Shin et al., 2013). Political articles focused on predicting presidential outcomes, a categorical target (Hurley and Lior, 2002;Graefe et al., 2014a;Morgan, 2014;Graefe, 2015Graefe, , 2018Graefe et al., 2014b). Risk-related targets were continuous and categorical: the probability of structural damage, nuclear fallout, occupational hazards, and balancing power load Zio and Apostolakis, 1997;Cabello et al., 2012;Adams et al., 2009;Neves and Frangopol, 2008;Jana et al., 2019;Wang et al., 2008;Ren-jun and Xian-zhong, 2002;Zio, 1996b;Baecke et al., 2017;Brito and Griffiths, 2016b;Craig et al., 2001;Mu and Xianming, 1999;. ...
... This is not the first study that uses model averaging. Indeed, this strategy has been used extensively in data-heavy domains such as weather forecasting (Gneiting and Raftery, 2005;Smith et al., 2009) and in fields where forecasts come from diverse methods and datasets, such as election polls (Armstrong, 2001;Graefe et al., 2014). ...