Rajeev Pillay’s research while affiliated with University of Northern British Columbia and other places

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Publications (28)


Global comparison of habitat intactness models for predicting extinction risk in terrestrial mammals
  • Preprint

April 2025

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32 Reads

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Fig. 1. Structural condition and integrity of tropical rainforests worldwide for forest-dependent terrestrial vertebrates. (A) Tropical rainforest structural condition (SCI) and (B) integrity (FSII) maps (10, 11). The SCI is a remotely sensed measure combining data on canopy cover, tree height, and time since disturbance to distinguish taller, older, more structurally complex closed-canopy forests from degraded forests. The FSII is a cumulative measure of structural condition and major human pressures as captured by the global human footprint (13). Tropical rainforests largely span the latitudes between 23.5° N and 23.5° S (indicated by the horizontal dashed lines on each map) but extend into subtropical latitudes in some areas. Bar plots in each panel show the proportion of humid tropical range for forest-dependent mammals, birds, reptiles, and amphibians encompassed by rainforest in high, moderate, and low structural condition and integrity. Proportions are averaged across the species in each taxonomic group; SI Appendix, Table S1 for sample sizes.
Fig. 2. Variation in the proportion of tropical rainforest with low, moderate, and high integrity in the ranges of forest-dependent terrestrial vertebrate groups in relation to their IUCN threatened status and population trend. Points denote the proportion of forest in each forest integrity and threat or population trend category for individual species and are jittered horizontally to limit overlap. Box plots show the median, 25th, and 75th percentiles. Filled circles represent the mean proportion of forest predicted by the linear mixed models fitted to the data and the associated black error bars are the predicted 95% credible intervals (CRIs). Horizontal dotted lines show the median proportion forest cover (i.e., without considering forest integrity) calculated across all species in each panel. SI Appendix, Table S2 for model estimates.
Fig. 3. Variation in the proportion of tropical rainforest with low, moderate, and high integrity in the ranges of forest-dependent terrestrial vertebrate groups in relation to the various IUCN Red List categories (in order of decreasing species conservation concern): Critically Endangered (CR), Endangered (EN), Vulnerable (VU), Near Threatened (NT), and Least Concern (LC). Points denote the proportion of forest in each forest integrity and threat category for individual species and are jittered horizontally to limit overlap. Box plots show the median, 25th, and 75th percentiles. Filled circles represent the mean proportion of forest predicted by the linear mixed models fitted to the data and the associated black error bars are the predicted 95% CRIs. Horizontal dotted lines show the median proportion forest cover calculated across all species in each panel. SI Appendix, Table S3 for model estimates.
Fig. 4. Comparisons across biogeographic realms: variation in the proportion of tropical rainforest with low (L), moderate (M), and high (H) integrity in the ranges of forest-dependent terrestrial vertebrate groups in relation to their IUCN threatened status and population trend. Orange, yellow, and green areas on the maps of each realm show the distribution of low-, moderate-, and high-integrity rainforest respectively. Points denote the proportion of forest in each integrity and threat or population trend category for individual species and are jittered horizontally to limit overlap. Box plots show the median, 25th, and 75th percentiles. Filled circles represent the mean proportion of forest predicted by the linear mixed models fitted to the data and the associated black error bars are the predicted 95% CRIs. SI Appendix, Table S5 A-D for model estimates.
Fig. 5. Relationships between forest integrity, geographic range size of forest-dependent terrestrial vertebrate groups, and their threatened status or population trend. (A) Species with larger ranges had a greater proportion of moderate-(dashed lines) and especially high-integrity forest (solid lines), and a lower proportion of low-integrity forest (dotted lines) than species with smaller ranges. (B) Larger-ranged species that are not threatened and not declining had greater proportions of high-integrity forest and lower proportions of low-integrity forest within their ranges than threatened or declining species. Points represent the proportion of forest for species as a function of range size and threat status or population trend and are jittered vertically and horizontally to reduce overlap. Circle, triangle, and square point types denote low-, moderate-, and high-integrity forest respectively. The lines show the mean relationships between the forest integrity gradient, range size, and threat or population trend predicted by the linear mixed models fitted to the data and the shaded areas of the lines are the predicted 95% CRIs. Dotted, dashed, and solid line types denote predicted relationships for low-, moderate-, and high-integrity forest respectively. SI Appendix, Tables S6 and S7 for model estimates.
Global rarity of high-integrity tropical rainforests for threatened and declining terrestrial vertebrates
  • Article
  • Full-text available

December 2024

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426 Reads

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1 Citation

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Structurally intact native forests free from major human pressures are vitally important habitats for the persistence of forest biodiversity. However, the extent of such high-integrity forest habitats remaining for biodiversity is unknown. Here, we quantify the amount of high-integrity tropical rainforests, as a fraction of total forest cover, within the geographic ranges of 16,396 species of terrestrial vertebrates worldwide. We found up to 90% of the humid tropical ranges of forest-dependent vertebrates was encompassed by forest cover. Concerningly, however, merely 25% of these remaining rainforests are of high integrity. Forest-dependent species that are threatened and declining and species with small geographic ranges have disproportionately low proportions of high-integrity forest habitat left. Our work brings much needed attention to the poor quality of much of the forest estate remaining for biodiversity across the humid tropics. The targeted preservation of the world’s remaining high-integrity tropical rainforests that are currently unprotected is a critical conservation priority that may help alleviate the biodiversity crisis in these hyperdiverse and irreplaceable ecosystems. Enhanced efforts worldwide to preserve tropical rainforest integrity are essential to meet the targets of the Convention on Biological Diversity’s 2022 Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework which aims to achieve near zero loss of high biodiversity importance areas (including ecosystems of high integrity) by 2030.

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Global forest cover (A) and the gradient of integrity or quality of this forest cover (B) ranging from high-integrity forests (dark green) to heavily degraded forests (red). Adapted from Grantham et al (2020). CC BY 4.0.
A comparison of what forest cover, forest integrity, and the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems (RLE) datasets can measure with respect to ecosystem integrity components of the Kunming-Montreal GBF goals and targets. Forest integrity from the FLII and/or FSII datasets (Grantham et al 2020, Hansen et al 2020) enables spatially-explicit tracking of both change in forest cover and change in integrity over time within specified units (e.g. pixels on a map) of a given forest ecosystem (A). In contrast, the RLE would classify the same changes in integrity shown in A by uplisting that forest ecosystem from a lower threat category to a higher one (B). Thus, the RLE would classify all pixels in that ecosystem into the same category (signifying increased risk of collapse) as opposed to the gradient shown in (A). The RLE categories are: Collapsed (CO), Critically Endangered (CR), Endangered (EN), Vulnerable (VU), Near Threatened (NT), Least Concern (LC), Data Deficient (DD), and Not Evaluated (NE).
The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework needs headline indicators that can actually monitor forest integrity

September 2024

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399 Reads

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4 Citations

Intact native forests under negligible large-scale human pressures (i.e. high-integrity forests) are critical for biodiversity conservation. However, high-integrity forests are declining worldwide due to deforestation and forest degradation. Recognizing the importance of high-integrity ecosystems (including forests), the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) has directly included the maintenance and restoration of ecosystem integrity, in addition to ecosystem extent, in its goals and targets. Yet, the headline indicators identified to help nations monitor forest ecosystems and their integrity can currently track changes only in (1) forest cover or extent, and (2) the risk of ecosystem collapse using the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems (RLE). These headline indicators are unlikely to facilitate the monitoring of forest integrity for two reasons. First, focusing on forest cover not only misses the impacts of anthropogenic degradation on forests but can also fail to detect the effect of positive management actions in enhancing forest integrity. Second, the risk of ecosystem collapse as measured by the ordinal RLE index (from Least Concern to Critically Endangered) makes it unlikely that changes to the continuum of forest integrity over space and time would be reported by nations. Importantly, forest ecosystems in many biodiverse African and Asian nations remain unassessed with the RLE. As such, many nations will likely resort to monitoring forest cover alone and therefore inadequately report progress against forest integrity goals and targets. We concur that monitoring changes in forest cover and the risk of ecosystem collapse are indeed vital aspects of conservation monitoring. Yet, they are insufficient for the specific purpose of tracking progress against crucial ecosystem integrity components of the GBF’s goals. We discuss the pitfalls of merely monitoring forest cover, a likely outcome with the current headline indicators. Augmenting forest cover monitoring with indicators that capture change in absolute area along the continuum of forest integrity would help monitor progress toward achieving area-based targets related to both integrity and extent of global forests.



Thresholds for adding degraded tropical forest to the conservation estate

July 2024

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1,106 Reads

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11 Citations

Nature

Logged and disturbed forests are often viewed as degraded and depauperate environments compared with primary forest. However, they are dynamic ecosystems¹ that provide refugia for large amounts of biodiversity2,3, so we cannot afford to underestimate their conservation value⁴. Here we present empirically defined thresholds for categorizing the conservation value of logged forests, using one of the most comprehensive assessments of taxon responses to habitat degradation in any tropical forest environment. We analysed the impact of logging intensity on the individual occurrence patterns of 1,681 taxa belonging to 86 taxonomic orders and 126 functional groups in Sabah, Malaysia. Our results demonstrate the existence of two conservation-relevant thresholds. First, lightly logged forests (<29% biomass removal) retain high conservation value and a largely intact functional composition, and are therefore likely to recover their pre-logging values if allowed to undergo natural regeneration. Second, the most extreme impacts occur in heavily degraded forests with more than two-thirds (>68%) of their biomass removed, and these are likely to require more expensive measures to recover their biodiversity value. Overall, our data confirm that primary forests are irreplaceable⁵, but they also reinforce the message that logged forests retain considerable conservation value that should not be overlooked.


Figure 2. Broad taxonomic patterns in the replicability of single-year biodiversity surveys. (A) Number
Figure 3. The probability of an analysis returning the correct sign (direction) of a taxon's response to forest degradation as a function of the number of single-year surveys in which that taxon was detected. (A) Each grey line represents an analysis for one taxon (n = 494). (B) Violin plots showing the distribution of probabilities of a single-year survey returning the correct sign for seven taxonomic groups. Points indicate the probability for individual taxa within each group.
Figure S3. Bootstrapped estimates of the proportion of taxa with invariant response patterns with respect to (A) year of survey, (B) El Niño events and (C) logging events. Thick line represents the median, boxes the 1 st and 3 rd quantiles, and whiskers the range. In panels (B) and (C), data were categorised into pairwise comparisons of taxon responses to forest degradation in which both surveys were conducted in years during which the event occurred (within), when one survey occurred during an event and the other occurred outside of the event (straddling), and when both surveys occurred outside of the event (outside).
Variable responses of individual species to tropical forest degradation

February 2024

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931 Reads

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1 Citation

The functional stability of ecosystems depends greatly on interspecific differences in responses to environmental perturbation. However, responses to perturbation are not necessarily invariant among populations of the same species, so intraspecific variation in responses might also contribute. Such inter-population response diversity has recently been shown to occur spatially across species ranges, but we lack estimates of the extent to which individual populations across an entire community might have perturbation responses that vary through time. We assess this using 524 taxa that have been repeatedly surveyed for the effects of tropical forest logging at a focal landscape in Sabah, Malaysia. Just 39 % of taxa - all with non-significant responses to forest degradation - had invariant responses. All other taxa (61 %) showed significantly different responses to the same forest degradation gradient across surveys, with 6 % of taxa responding to forest degradation in opposite directions across multiple surveys. Individual surveys had low power (< 80 %) to determine the correct direction of response to forest degradation for one-fifth of all taxa. Recurrent rounds of logging disturbance increased the prevalence of intra-population response diversity, while uncontrollable environmental variation and/or turnover of intraspecific phenotypes generated variable responses in at least 44 % of taxa. Our results show that the responses of individual species to local environmental perturbations are remarkably flexible, likely providing an unrealised boost to the stability of disturbed habitats such as logged tropical forests.


Mapping Industrial Influences on Earth's Ecology

November 2023

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407 Reads

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20 Citations

Annual Review of Environment and Resources

As anthropogenic transformation of Earth's ecology accelerates, and its impacts on the sustainability of humanity and the rest of nature become more obvious, geographers and other researchers are leveraging an abundance of spatial data to map how industrialization is transforming the biosphere. This review examines the methodologies used to create such maps and how they have enhanced our understanding of how societies can abate biodiversity loss, mitigate climate change, and achieve global sustainability goals. Although there have been great advances over the past two decades in mapping industrial transformations of ecology across the planet, the field is still in its infancy. We outline future research directions to better understand anthropogenic transformation of the biosphere and the utility of integrating global maps of socioeconomic, ecological, biodiversity, and climate data to explore and inform potential pathways of human-driven social-ecological change.


The relative importance of forest integrity, structural condition and forest cover on the odds of mammals, birds, reptiles and amphibians being threatened and having declining population trends
Forest integrity tended to be associated with a beneficial effect on biodiversity (lower odds of species being threatened and having declining population trends), relative to forest cover. For sample sizes, see Supplementary Table 1a. Point estimates represent median standardized odds ratios of species being threatened (circles) or having a declining population (squares), generated by exponentiating standardized coefficients (log odds) of 100 phylogenetic logistic regressions (Supplementary Table 2). The vertical dotted line represents an odds ratio of 1, denoting statistical non-significance. Error bars represent median 95% CIs generated with 2,000 parametric bootstraps in each regression. Each regression was performed with one phylogenetic tree randomly drawn from 10,000 available trees for each taxonomic group. Separate models were parameterized for rainforest-obligate and rainforest-associated species for each response variable. Illustration credits: S. Traver, F. Sayol, B. Szabo and J. C. Arenas-Monroy.
Predicted probabilities of tropical rainforest-obligate and rainforest-associated mammal, bird, reptile and amphibian species being threatened and having declining population trends
a,b, Predicted probabilities are shown as a function of two-way interactions between forest cover and structural condition (a) and forest cover and integrity (b). Species tended to be at higher risk of being threatened and having declining populations when their ranges contained high proportions of forest cover but low structural condition and integrity (that is, large extents of degraded forest) than when their ranges contained lower proportions of forest cover but high condition and integrity. Median predicted probabilities were generated from 100 phylogenetic logistic regressions. See Supplementary Table 1a and Tables 4 and 5 for sample sizes and model estimates, respectively. Illustration credits: S. Traver, F. Sayol, B. Szabo and J. C. Arenas-Monroy.
Predicted probabilites of rainforest-obligate mammals, birds, reptiles and amphibians being threatened and having declining population trends across the four biogeographic realms within the tropical rainforest biome
The bar plots show the baseline probabilities in each realm estimated without consideration of either forest cover or integrity. The adjacent line plots show the probability of being threatened and having a declining population with increasing forest integrity after statistically controlling for the effects of forest cover (among species with average area of forest cover within their ranges). Data points (1, threatened/declining; 0, not threatened/not declining) are vertically and horizontally jittered to reduce overlap. The bars and lines represent median predicted probabilities from 100 phylogenetic logistic regressions. Each regression was performed with one phylogenetic tree randomly drawn from 10,000 available trees for each taxonomic group. Error bars and the shaded areas of the lines represent median 95% CIs generated with 2,000 parametric bootstraps in each regression. These results were mirrored in rainforest-associated vertebrates (Extended Data Fig. 3). See Supplementary Table 1b and Table 7 for sample sizes and model estimates, respectively. AF, Afrotropic; AU, Australasia; IN, Indomalayan; NE, Neotropic. Illustration credits: S. Traver, F. Sayol, B. Szabo and J. C. Arenas-Monroy.
Humid tropical vertebrates are at lower risk of extinction and population decline in forests with higher structural integrity

November 2022

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931 Reads

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22 Citations

Nature Ecology & Evolution

Reducing deforestation underpins global biodiversity conservation efforts. However, this focus on retaining forest cover overlooks the multitude of anthropogenic pressures that can degrade forest quality and imperil biodiversity. We use remotely sensed indices of tropical rainforest structural condition and associated human pressures to quantify the relative importance of forest cover, structural condition and integrity (the cumulative effect of condition and pressures) on vertebrate species extinction risk and population trends across the global humid tropics. We found that tropical rainforests of high integrity (structurally intact and under low pressures) were associated with lower likelihood of species being threatened and having declining populations, compared with forest cover alone (without consideration of condition and pressures). Further, species were more likely to be threatened or have declining populations if their geographic ranges contained high proportions of degraded forest than if their ranges contained lower proportions of forest cover but of high quality. Our work suggests that biodiversity conservation policies to preserve forest integrity are now urgently required alongside ongoing efforts to halt deforestation in the hyperdiverse humid tropics.


Humans pressure wetland multifunctionality

August 2022

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201 Reads

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7 Citations

Nature Ecology & Evolution

A large dataset of aquatic biodiversity across multiple trophic levels from several wetlands in Brazil reveals that biodiversity–multifunctionality relationships break down with human pressures.


Conserving alpha and beta diversity in wood‐production landscapes

February 2022

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565 Reads

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14 Citations

International demand for wood and other forest products continues to grow rapidly, and uncertainties remain about how animal communities will respond to intensifying resource extraction associated with woody bioenergy production. We examined changes in alpha and beta diversity of bats, bees, birds, and reptiles across wood production landscapes in the southeastern United States, a biodiversity hotspot that is one of the principal sources of woody biomass globally. We sampled across a spatial gradient of paired forest land‐uses (representing pre and postharvest) that allowed us to evaluate biological community changes resulting from several types of biomass harvest. Short‐rotation practices and residue removal following clearcuts were associated with reduced alpha diversity (−14.1 and −13.9 species, respectively) and lower beta diversity (i.e., Jaccard dissimilarity) between land‐use pairs (0.46 and 0.50, respectively), whereas midrotation thinning increased alpha (+3.5 species) and beta diversity (0.59). Over the course of a stand rotation in a single location, biomass harvesting generally led to less biodiversity. Cross‐taxa responses to resource extraction were poorly predicted by alpha diversity: correlations in responses between taxonomic groups were highly variable (−0.2 to 0.4) with large uncertainties. In contrast, beta diversity patterns were highly consistent and predictable across taxa, where correlations in responses between taxonomic groups were all positive (0.05–0.4) with more narrow uncertainties. Beta diversity may, therefore, be a more reliable and information‐rich indicator than alpha diversity in understanding animal community response to landscape change. Patterns in beta diversity were primarily driven by turnover instead of species loss or gain, indicating that wood extraction generates habitats that support different biological communities.


Citations (25)


... Tropical regions, characterized by their warm climates and high precipitation, harbor some of the most biodiverse ecosystems on Earth. These ecosystems include rainforests, which cover about 7 % of the Earth's surface and are home to more than 50 % of terrestrial species (López-Carr, 2021;Pillay et al., 2024;Dinerstein et al., 2024). Within these biomes, forests play a critical role in regulating climate, storing carbon, and maintaining ecological stability. ...

Reference:

The tree species diversity – Soil macrofauna nexus in cocoa-based agroforests in Cameroon: A biophysical assessment
Global rarity of high-integrity tropical rainforests for threatened and declining terrestrial vertebrates

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

... Our estimate of degraded and disturbed forests in the breeding range (22.2%/ 20 years) likely underestimates the true extent by omitting other indicators of forest integrity, such as connectivity and edge effects. To meet global targets (i.e., the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework), future tracking of forest degradation will benefit from nuanced temporal global datasets that account for a broad range of indicators 67,70 . ...

The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework needs headline indicators that can actually monitor forest integrity

... pnas.org from logging is too low to have zero impact on biodiversity, recent work in Southeast Asia suggests low intensity logging (<29% biomass removal) is associated with largely intact functional composition ( 32 ). Given logged structurally degraded forests under high human pressures can still harbor considerable biodiversity and maintain ecosystem functioning ( 33 -35 ), it would be worth restoring logged forests of lower integrity wherever feasible as opposed to converting them into agricultural lands or monoculture plantations. ...

Thresholds for adding degraded tropical forest to the conservation estate

Nature

... We summarized taxon responses from 8,130 combinations of surveys and taxa. We compiled biodiversity data from 55 published data sources (Supplementary Table 1), from which we extracted presence-absence data following the methods of ref. 123. Previous analyses of multi-taxa biodiversity data have demonstrated that comparisons of presence-absence data among taxa are more robust than analyses of abundance data 23,124 . ...

Variable responses of individual species to tropical forest degradation

... To combine the degree of human modification for each individual threat t, we calculated H using a fuzzy sum statistic 7,32,33 , (aka "increasive mean"): (2025) 12:606 | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-04892-2 www.nature.com/scientificdata ...

Mapping Industrial Influences on Earth's Ecology

Annual Review of Environment and Resources

... The term "degradation" has been defined and measured in various ways in global forest literature, often extending beyond stand and tree size dynamics to incorporate metrics such as edge effects, landscape connectivity, and industrial pressures 13,67 . These broader definitions are vital for assessing biodiversity impacts, particularly for forest-dependent species 14,15,68 . Global datasets like the Forest Landscape Integrity Index (FLII) (Grantham et al., 2020), which has previously demonstrated the importance of high integrity forest for swift parrot nest survival 25 , and the Forest Structural Condition or Integrity Index (FSCI/FSII) 69 incorporate such factors but are temporally static. ...

Humid tropical vertebrates are at lower risk of extinction and population decline in forests with higher structural integrity

Nature Ecology & Evolution

... Meanwhile, with the frequency of global climate events, the alternations of temperature and precipitation patterns would impact the structures and functions of local aquatic ecosystems by disrupting the status of hydrology and water quality [21]. Changes in physical and chemical factors transform aquatic habitats, ultimately acting on aquatic communities' absolute and relative compositions, affecting the biological integrity of lakes [22]. ...

Humans pressure wetland multifunctionality
  • Citing Article
  • August 2022

Nature Ecology & Evolution

... Furthermore, natural resource management has not traditionally targeted biodiversity conservation as an intervention goal, thus there is limited empirical evidence of how varying levels of management intensity may affect spatiotemporal patterns in species assemblages in a climate change-driven system. Using beta diversity metrics to monitor compositional variability can help elucidate how ecosystem function and resilience may be changing in response to multiple stressors, including management activity (Dell et al. 2019;Jones et al. 2021). Concurrently, uncovering how management activities may or may not buffer ecological communities from species gains, losses, and compositional homogenization can help managers better decide when, where, and how much-if any-management is needed to support stability in transforming landscapes. ...

Conserving alpha and beta diversity in wood‐production landscapes

... Forests constitute the primary terrestrial carbon pools globally (Tebeje 2020;Wang et al. 2023), with the majority of carbon sequestered in the soil (Sharma et al. 2023), significantly affecting the carbon cycle (Anderson-Teixeira et al. 2021). In forest ecosystems, the tropics cover less than 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface (Pillay et al. 2022) but harbor a substantial fraction of non-atmospheric landbased carbon, storing up to 324 Pg (Mackey et al. 2020). In tropical forests, approximately 32% of carbon is stored in the soil under organic form (Pan et al. 2024) and considered a potential sink for elevated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emission, making it necessary to maintain and enhance these significant soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks at high levels in order to address climate change effectively (Md. ...

Tropical forests are home to over half of the world’s vertebrate species

... Abundance and distribution data are fundamental in the fields of ecology and conservation biology [1]. These data provide valuable insights into the spatial patterns of species occurrence and help to identify areas of high conservation significance [2,3]. ...

Using interview surveys and multispecies occupancy models to inform vertebrate conservation