January 2025
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4 Reads
Regional Research of Russia
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January 2025
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4 Reads
Regional Research of Russia
November 2024
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9 Reads
InterCarto InterGIS
The paper examines the dynamics of the population of the city of Moscow from the point of view of the formation of various cyclical fluctuations. To analyze the phenomena, an extensive data set is used on the position of subscribers of mobile operators in the city with a time frame of 30 minutes for 2018–2019. The availability of data on the population of the city with such a high frequency of updating allowed us to obtain unique information about the patterns of movement of the city’s population, numerically characterize the qualitative results of chronogeography and the concept of social time. Based on the analysis, a model of the movement of the city’s population is developed, consisting of a trend around which fluctuations of various types occur. The quasi-cycle associated with the change of seasons, the daily cycle, the weekly cycle, as well as the cyclicity of the daily gradient associated with the seasons are revealed. At the same time, there are disturbances in cycles associated with the presence of holidays. The methodology used is based on the method of empirical mode decomposition EMD, nonlinear regression analysis. The decomposition of the daily pulsation series into gradients and trends of changes between night and daytime hours on the example of Moscow districts allowed us to identify eight chronotypes of districts: “classic attractors”, “plateaued attractors”, “lark attractors”, “owl attractors”, “classic bedrooms”, “transit bedrooms”, “sporadic attractors” and “bedroom-attractors” reflecting the functional roles of municipalities and the peculiarities of their position in the system of intra-urban mobility.
September 2024
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31 Reads
Regional Research of Russia
Using mobile network operator data, the study analyzes the modern ethnic landscape of the Moscow agglomeration formed by foreign migrants. Their total number and monthly dynamics from October 2021 to October 2022 were analyzed. Foreigners’ main areas of residence were identified, the ethnic diversity of municipalities was assessed, and the main types of settlement pattern of national-ethnic communities were identified. The study showed that the total number of foreign migrants in the agglomeration reaches 1.8 mln people, or 9% of the total population, remaining almost unchanged against the backdrop of the events of 2022, including the special military operation. The share of foreigners is minimal in closed administrative-territorial units (below 3%), and it is also small in the remote parts of Moscow Region, as well as in expensive areas of the capital. At the same time, eight municipalities in the agglomeration have crossed the 17% mark, the so-called tipping point, reflecting a sharp increase in the risks of interethnic conflicts and ghettoization of the urban space. The two most noticeable areas of increased concentration of foreign migrants have been identified in the southeast at the junction of Moscow and Moscow oblast (Lublino–Kotelniki) and in New Moscow (Mosrentgen–Sosenskoe). Calculation of the Ekkel’ ethnic mosaic index has confirmed the presence of pronounced interethnic contact zones here. Elevated index values were also noted in most areas of the center and southwest of the capital, which, with a lower share of foreign residents, is associated with a high density of office buildings, diplomatic institutions, and universities. Analysis of the settlement patterns of national-ethnic groups of migrants revealed three types determined in accordance with the adaptive capabilities of ethnic communities. A diffuse, relatively uniform settlement pattern is characteristic of both the largest ethnic groups (citizens of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan) and those most culturally close to the local population (immigrants from Ukraine and Belarus). A concentric settlement pattern (in residential areas of Moscow and satellite cities) is typical of relatively large ethnic groups from post-Soviet countries (citizens of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia). The local type is characteristic of small ethnic communities that gravitate towards certain areas of the capital.
July 2024
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20 Reads
Federalism
Due to the scale of population and economic concentration, Moscow is a mega-polis forming a vast zone of influence around itself. The accumulated economic and financial potential of the capital, as well as its huge consumer demand, consistently act as the most important factors in the development of the surrounding regions of the Non-Chernozem region. These regions can be considered as the periphery of the Moscow Metropolis, a supra-agglomeration spatial structure developing around Moscow. During the post-Soviet period, there has been a steady trend towards the centralization of demographic, economic and investment resources in Moscow and the Moscow region. Active population growth, investment penetration and active suburbanization in the 50-60-kilometer zone closest to Moscow are taking place against the background of socio-economic depression in rural areas, small and medium-sized urban centers in areas more remote from the capital. Today, Moscow and the 60-kilometer zone around it concentrate 65% of the metropolitan population, as well as over 80% of its gross product and investments in fixed assets. This is also the zone of active daily pendulum labor migrations to Moscow (up to 1.5 million people daily), which are carried out by 15 to 60% of the total able-bodied population living here. Along with this, there are prerequisites for promising development as part of the metropolis and more remote territories. In particular, there is an integration of regional labor markets with Moscow, through alternative work formats – over a million residents of the periphery are othodniki (shift workers), remote and hybrid employment is widespread. An important factor in the socio-economic development of the “bloodless” rural area of the peripheral metropolis is the filling of its 4 million summer residents in the summer season. Thus, joining the Moscow Metropolis of the regions surrounding the capital, along with risks, creates unique integration opportunities for them and sets a strategic vector for their spatial development.
June 2024
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1 Read
Regional Research of Russia
April 2024
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2 Reads
Regional Research of Russia
February 2024
Lomonosov Geography Journal
Using the example of the Moscow region and based on the analysis of various information, including data from cellular operators, we studied a poorly explored phenomenon of absorption of some cities (towns) by others. The objectives of the article included the development of an approach to the study of united cities (towns), including an assessment of the preservation of their self-sufficiency as autonomous centers, as well as the identification of factors and stages of integration.It is revealed that in the Soviet period the unification of cities (towns) in the Moscow region occurred as a result of the evolutionary development of neighboring centers and their merger. In recent decades the inclusion of cities (towns) into neighboring centers is mainly the result of artificial amalgamation during the current stage of municipal reform. Based on the example of the three largest takeover cases of recent times (Khimki - Skhodnya, Balashikha - Zheleznodorozhny, Podolsk - Klimovsk), and using the data of cellular operators, we analysed the borders, population numbers and the system of external relations of the population. It is shown that all united cities (towns) under consideration continue to be independent centers (in terms of population size and density, and their role as local centers of labor gravity).The study of the absorbed cities (towns) of the Moscow region made it possible to identify the stages of their integration. It is revealed that after formal administrative subordination, the united center goes through the stages of infrastructural and socio-cultural merger, ending with the stage of complete absorption. It is shown that under the influence of a number of factors (geographical proximity, population size, economic structure, etc.), merger processes can accelerate or slow down.A methodology proposed in the article is aimed at forming an approach to the study of absorbed cities (towns). The latter disappear from the field of view of official statistics and specialists, despite their continued functioning as independent centers for a long time.
May 2023
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23 Reads
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1 Citation
The assessment of the vulnerability of urban population to potential natural and man-made hazards is hampered by the high intensity of intracity movements of residents and the uneven daily distribution of the population across the urbanized territory. This factor of uncertainty creates a problem with the allocation of funds and resources needed to mitigate risks. Different urban areas have different daily profile of changes in their population. This paper presents an original methodological approach to the dynamic assessment of the population of urban areas based on the fragmentation of the day into temporary elements of “social time” - pacemakers: determining the functional affiliation of “day” and “night”, and the nature of intraday dynamics - “morning start” and “evening finish”. Reliance on a highly detailed array of anonymized data from mobile operators on the localization of subscribers and an analysis of the urban space of Moscow through the prism of social time made it possible to improve the accuracy of estimates of the actual population of intracity territories, linking them to objectively existing time intervals. The authors identify 14 types of municipalities and formulate recommendations to reduce the population’s vulnerability to emergency situations.Keywordsdata of mobile operatorspopulation vulnerabilityurban mobilitymunicipalitiesMoscownatural and man-made hazardspopulation dynamics“social time”pacemakerstypology of urban territories
January 2023
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7 Reads
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3 Citations
Regional Research of Russia
January 2023
Regional nye issledovaniya
Based on the results of a review of a number of selected domestic studies of commuting, the article systematizes and critically evaluates approaches to studying this phenomenon in Russia. The consideration of approaches is accompanied by an analysis of statistical sources based on the relevance criteria identified by the author: depth and detail of data, spatial coverage, regularity of collection, accessibility, spatial resolution. It was shown that there are four main areas of commuting research in Russian practice, each of which is based on relevant data sources. The first approach uses official statistics (census data, sample surveys of the labor force) covering demographic and macroeconomic indicators of employment. The second approach operates with departmental statistics, usually affecting certain characteristics of the sphere of labor (tax revenues, registration of migrants, etc.), through which researchers approach the interpretation of commuting. The third approach is based on selective socio- logical research (opinion polls and in-depth interviews). The works based on sociological surveys focus on the motives and factors of citizens' mobility, while they differ in the locality of the research object and the limited sample. Finally, the fourth approach is related to the use of big data: information from mobile operators, banking transactions and GIS applications. These sources better offset the traditional weakness of domestic statistics of сommuting, allowing research to be carried out on an array of solid and detailed alternative statistics. In addition, special attention is paid in the article to the consideration of approaches to the synthesis of heterogeneous sources by creating balance models with various socio- economic factors embedded in them.
... Спустя век ревизия «истинных» городов была проведена в работе «Город и деревня в Европейской России: сто лет перемен» [Город…, 2001]. В наше время вопрос соответствия реального статуса населенных пунктов официальному рассматривается в ряде работ и по столичному региону [Бабурин и др., 2003;Махрова и др., 2008;Makhrova, Babkin, 2022]. Отдельная группа работ затрагивает факторы, влияющие в том числе и на процессы объединения и поглощения городов [Перцик, Питерский, 2000; Махрова, Голубчиков, 2012; Голубчиков, Махрова, 2013]. ...
January 2023
Regional Research of Russia
... Новые вызовы современности обуславливают необходимость применения более совершенных методов их решения, которые невозможны без привлечения новых видов данных. Широкие возможности открывает использование в географических исследованиях Больших данных (Петросян и др., 2020), в частности -данных операторов сотовой связи, позволяющих получать наиболее достоверную информацию о местонахождении определенного количества людей в заданных локациях и промежутках времени, что особенно актуально в исследованиях природного и техногенного риска (Babkin et al., 2022a). Трагические последствия катастрофического землетрясения, произошедшего в Турции в феврале 2023 года, в очередной раз подтверждают факт необходимости строжайшего соблюдения специфических строительных норм и правил, установленных в зонах распространения опасных природных процессов и явлений, а также повышения информированности о количестве наличного населения в зонах жилой застройки в целях осуществления эффективных превентивных и ликвидационных мероприятий. ...
November 2022
Encyclopedia
... The speed of public life and citizens mobility, which have greatly increased in recent decades, lead to significant fluctuations in the population size and a high degree of uncertainty in the state of urban settlement systems at a certain point in time. However, the movement of the population is subject to cyclic patterns: daily, weekly, and seasonal cycles (Makhrova et al 2022). ...
March 2022
Regional Research of Russia
... Nevertheless, disaster risk management and adaptation concentrate on minimizing exposure and vulnerability while enhancing resilience to the potential adverse effects of both natural and manmade hazards. Although it is acknowledged that risks cannot be entirely eradicated, these efforts enable assets to better withstand and cope with such challenges [9]. ...
June 2022
City and Environment Interactions
... Studies devoted to the typologization of municipalities, as a rule, reveal contrasts and asymmetry in the development of socio-economic processes at the municipal level (Voroshilov 2019;Romashina 2019). O.V. Kuznetsova notes (Kuznetsova 2021) that the existing typologies of municipalities are actually the result of development of municipalities monitoring and not the basis for such monitoring, since they are based on an assessment of the current socio-economic situation of municipalities. This observation is also true in relation to environmental assessments at the municipal level. ...
December 2021
Federalism
... В 2016 г. были опубликованы и первые статьи, посвященные оценке потоков трудовых маятниковых миграций в столичном регионе с использованием подобных данных (Махрова, Кириллов, Бочкарев, 2016; Махрова, Бочкарев, 2017). В дальнейшем группой этих ученых были апробированы разные подходы к изучению маятниковой трудовой и других видов мобильности (Махрова, Бабкин, 2018;Махрова и др., 2022;Makhrova et al., 2021). В данной статье представлены результаты исследований этого коллектива -изучения пространственно-временных особенностей маятниковых миграций в Московском регионе, основанных на таком относительно новом источнике информации, как данные сотовых операторов. ...
October 2021
Regional Research of Russia
... New scientific approaches and methods for assessing the risks and vulnerabilities of citizens are needed to cope with an increase in natural and human emergency frequency, as well as a larger scale of their consequences such as fatalities, injuries or long-term negative effects on society's development. Due to the large population concentration, major cities and metropolitan areas are at increased risk (Badina et al., 2022). Therefore, in this research, the effect of natural and man-made hazards on the city's assets is studied and the effective consequences on the city's assets are determined. ...
January 2022
... 2. Variation from Rosstat data is higher, because in Russian practice, the organization of preventive measures to protect the Source: compiled by the authors based on mobile operators' data population from emergencies and measures to eliminate the consequences (including population evacuation) are carried out based on official statistics, which, as shown by our previous studies (Badina and Babkin 2021), significantly differ from reality. 3. Dynamic component is higher, since the intensive population movement in the daily cycle on the urban territory increases the uncertainty. ...
January 2021
InterCarto InterGIS
... Indicators for level assessment of social marginalization. Source:[7]. ...
March 2021
Federalism
... Significant experience has been gained in assessing monocentric agglomerations in Russia with cores in regional centers, for example: Moscow [27], Belgorod [28], and Yekaterinburg [29]. [30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37] have significantly contributed to the formation of the theoretical and methodological approaches to understanding and assessing the growth dynamics of agglomerated territories. ...
July 2020
Regional Research of Russia