Piers K. Dunstan’s research while affiliated with The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation and other places

By March 2020 coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was anticipated to present a major challenge to the work undertaken by scientists. This pandemic could be considered just one of the shocks that human society has had and will be likely to confront again in the future. As strategic thinking about the future can assist performance and planning of scientific research in the face of change, the pandemic presented an opportunity to evaluate the performance of marine researchers in prediction of future outcomes. In March 2020, two groups of researchers predicted outcomes for the Australian marine research sector, and then evaluated these predictions after 18 months. The self-assessed coping ability of a group experienced in ‘futures studies’ was not higher than the less-experienced group, suggesting that scientists in general may be well placed to cope with shocks. A range of changes to scientific endeavours (e.g., travel, fieldwork) and to marine sectors (e.g., fisheries, biodiversity) were predicted over the first 12–18 months of COVID-19 disruption. The predicted direction of change was generally correct (56%) or neutral (25%) for predictions related to the scientific endeavour, and correct (73%) or mixed (9%) for predictions related to sectors that are the focus of marine research. The success of this foresighting experiment suggests that the collective wisdom of scientists can be used by their organisations to consider the impact of shocks and disruptions and to better prepare for and cope with shocks. Graphical abstract Word cloud analysis of free text responses to questions about expected impact of COVID-19 on the activities associated with marine science

Interest in deep seafloor mineral exploitation has been developing over the last few decades, and especially recently as the potential application of metals and elements in these mineral deposits has become more relevant for clean energy technology. The mineral resources located in areas beyond national jurisdiction ("the Area") are under the regulatory control of the International Seabed Authority (ISA), which is required to protect the marine environment from the harmful effects of seabed mining activities and make recommendations to avoid serious harm to the marine environment. However, there is currently no agreed operational definition of serious harm for the Area. Noting that we neither support or disapprove of deep-sea mining, we propose a scientifically-focused risk framework approach for defining serious harm in the context of polymetallic nodule mining based on ISA documentation, as well as international and national criteria, and approaches developed for managing deep-sea resources. A three-tier "traffic light" scheme is proposed, with a threshold level between detectable (green) and significant harm (orange), and a further limit beyond which significant harm becomes serious harm (red). The green, orange and red sectors are associated with no additional management, additional management required, and stopping mining operations, respectively. We further provide illustrations of the type of criteria that could be used in defining levels of harmful effects, and further discuss aspects related to ensuring definitions and their application are fit-for-purpose. The framework proposed here provides a blueprint of an adaptive process that can be applied to the management of any mineral resource, although we focus in some specifics on polymetallic nodule mining. The work bridges the gap between earlier attempts at defining serious harm in the context of deep-sea mining and the need for a clear and consistent approach to operationalise the concept of serious harm.

The Salas y Gómez and Nazca ridges are two adjacent seamount chains of volcanic origin located in thesoutheastern Pacific, which collectively stretch across over 2,900 km of seafloor. Ecosystems in thisregion are isolated from the South American Continent by the Atacama Trench and the Humboldt CurrentSystem. This isolation has produced a unique biodiversity that is marked by one of the highest levels ofmarine endemism known on Earth. For many taxonomic groups, nearly half of the species are endemic tothe region and found nowhere else on the planet. These areas also provide important habitats for bluewhales, leatherback turtles, corals, and a multitude of other ecologically important species, including 93species that are threatened or endangered. Recent explorations in this region have documented the deepestlight-dependent marine ecosystems on Earth, as well as numerous species that are new to science,highlighting that it represents an enormous opportunity for future scientific explorations and conservation.Waters surrounding the Salas y Gómez and Nazca ridges mostly fall within areas beyond nationaljurisdiction (ABNJ), with smaller portions located in the national waters of Chile and Peru. Chile hasalready protected all the seamounts that fall within its jurisdiction, and Peru is evaluating a proposal toprotect most of the seamounts that fall within its national waters. However, ABNJ seamounts, whichrepresent the majority of seamounts of the Salas y Gómez and Nazca ridges, and over 40% of allseamounts found in the southeastern Pacific, are still unprotected and under threat from a variety ofstressors, including climate change, plastic pollution, and potential deep-sea mining in the future. Fishingoperations targeting species managed by the South Pacific Regional Fishery Management Organization(SPRFMO) have been minimal to nonexistent in this region in recent years. Consequently, there is aunique opportunity to protect the extraordinary cultural and natural resources of this region, withoutsignificantly impacting the fishing industry. This report provides a summary of the relevant science thathas been conducted in the region as a foundation to propose a fishing closure to species managed bySPRFMO. Specifically, the proposed fishing closure would encompass an area of 1,097,846 km 2 that islocated in international waters of the Salas y Gómez and Nazca Ridges Ecologically or BiologicallySignificant Marine Area (EBSA). The proposed regulations would have little to no impact on fishingoperations, however, they would provide enormous advances in safeguarding the unique biodiversity ofthis region, as well as showcase the global leadership of SPRFMO and its member countries.

Human activity puts our oceans under multiple stresses, whose impacts are already significantly affecting biodiversity and physicochemical properties. Consequently, there is an increased international focus on the conservation and sustainable use of oceans, including the protection of fragile benthic biodiversity hotspots in the deep sea, identified as vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs). International VME risk assessment and conservation efforts are hampered because we largely do not know where VMEs are located. VME distribution modelling has increasingly been recommended to extend our knowledge beyond sparse observations. Nevertheless, the adoption of VME distribution models in spatial management planning and conservation remains limited. This work critically reviews VME distribution modelling studies, and recommends promising avenues to make VME models more relevant and impactful for policy and management decision making. First, there is an important interplay between the type of VME data used to build models and how the generated maps can be used in making management decisions, which is often ignored by model-builders. Overall, there is a need for more precise VME data for production of reliable models. We provide specific guidelines for seven common applications of VME distribution modelling to improve the matching between the modelling and the user need. Second, the current criteria to identify VME often rely on subjective thresholds, which limits the transparency, transferability and effective applicability of distribution models in protection measures. We encourage scientists towards founding their models on: (i) specific and quantitative definitions of what constitute a VME, (ii) site conservation value assessment in relation to VME multi-taxon spatial predictions, and (iii) explicitly mapping vulnerability. Along with the recent increase in both deep-sea biological and environmental data quality and quantity, these modelling recommendations can lead towards more cohesive summaries of VME’s spatial distributions and their relative vulnerability, which should facilitate a more effective protection of these ecosystems, as has been mandated by numerous international agreements.

View-only version accessible here: https://rdcu.be/cNqCu

Adaptation pathways are decision-making processes which sequence actions over time to account for rapid change and future uncertainty. In developing economies pathways practice can guide climate-resilient development (CRD) but is hampered by complex political dynamics, intensified by ‘resource curses’ of abundant natural resources. We tested an adaptation pathways approach for large-scale natural resource development in Papua New Guinea’s Bismarck Sea. We engaged with five contested development proposals for deep sea mining, oil palm and tourism to integrate CRD principles into decision-making. The process involved three steps: mapping decision-making and power, participatory pathways planning, and evaluation and learning. CRD-relevant information was fed into decision-making about the proposals. ‘Political spaces’ were created through participatory planning that levelled power asymmetries, enabled common interests to emerge, democratised knowledge co-production, enhanced networks and coordination, and galvanised collective action to re-design the proposals with CRD considerations. The common political interests formed leverage points for conflict transformation and collaboration. Evaluation revealed the suspension of an oil palm development to allow a landuse plan to be formulated to account for food security, conservation and climate adaptation. The study highlighted three learnings: the importance of analysing politics and power in decision-making and identifying leverage points; the challenges for researchers wishing to create political spaces; and the necessity for capacity-building amongst local knowledge brokers to continue this role. We conclude by assessing the feasibility of mainstreaming this approach into decision-making in resource curses, dubbed by one decision-maker as ‘walking along with development’.

Human activity puts our oceans under multiple stresses, whose impacts are already significantly affecting biodiversity and physicochemical properties. Consequently, there is an increased international focus on the conservation and sustainable use of oceans, including the protection of fragile benthic biodiversity hotspots in the deep sea, identified as vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs). International VME risk assessment and conservation efforts are hampered because we largely do not know where VMEs are located. VME distribution modelling has increasingly been recommended to extend our knowledge beyond sparse observations. Nevertheless, the adoption of VME distribution models in spatial management planning and conservation remains limited. This work critically reviews VME distribution modelling studies, and recommends promising avenues to make VME models more relevant and impactful for policy and management decision making. First, there is an important interplay between the type of VME data used to build models and how the generated maps can be used in making management decisions, which is often ignored by model-builders. We encourage scientists towards founding their models on: (i) specific and quantitative definitions of what constitute a VME, (ii) site conservation value assessment in relation to VME multi-taxon spatial predictions, and (iii) explicitly mapping vulnerability. Along with the recent increase in both deep-sea biological and environmental data quality and quantity, these modelling recommendations can lead towards more cohesive summaries of VME’s spatial distributions and their relative vulnerability, which should facilitate a more effective protection of these ecosystems, as has been mandated by numerous international agreements.

Mapping the various anthropogenic threats to species is a key tool to support and guide effective decisions for management of these threats. While there are a range of approaches to mapping threats, the extent to which these provide consistent or differing results has not been investigated. The overall aim of this study was to address this gap by explicitly testing how threat mapping methods vary. To achieve this, we examined the extent to which conservation management priorities change depending on the method used to map threats. This includes methods with increasing levels of spatial and species-specific information: (1) cumulative threats; (2) cumulative threats restricted to species distributions; (3) threat-species hotspots; and, (4) cumulative impacts. We used Australia’s North Marine Region as a case study and focused on 16 species deemed the highest priority for threat management due to their heightened vulnerability to these threats. Visual and tabulated comparisons of these four maps reveal how refining the underlying detail transforms the spatial footprint of each map and therefore, the management implications. Across all four methods there was consistent identification of the coastal zone as the area with highest threats. We found that the cumulative impact method required the greatest data inputs, but in return provided the greatest level of detail in terms of where to act and which threats to manage for vulnerable species.

The Salas y Gómez and Nazca ridges are two seamount chains of volcanic origin, which include over 110 seamounts that collectively stretch across over 2,900 km in the southeastern Pacific. Ecosystems in this region are isolated by the Atacama Trench, the Humboldt Current System, and an extreme oxygen minimum zone. This isolation has produced a unique biodiversity that is marked by one of the highest levels of marine endemism on Earth. These areas also provide important habitats and ecological stepping stones for whales, sea turtles, corals, and a multitude of other ecologically important species, including 82 species that are threatened or endangered. Recent explorations in this region have documented one of the deepest light-dependent marine ecosystems on Earth, as well as numerous species that are new to science. Waters surrounding the Salas y Gómez and Nazca ridges are mostly located in areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ), with smaller portions located in the national waters of Chile and Peru. Within this region, Chile has already protected all the ridge features that fall within its jurisdiction, and Peru is evaluating a proposal that would protect the seafloor that falls within its national waters. However, all of the ABNJ in the region, which cover over 73% of the Salas y Gómez and Nazca ridges, are unprotected and under threat from a variety of stressors, including climate change, plastic pollution, overfishing, and potential deep-sea mining in the future. Importantly, fishing and other commercial activities are at low levels in international waters of this region, so there is a time-sensitive opportunity to protect its unique natural and cultural resources before they are degraded. This study provides a synthesis of the relevant science that has been conducted on the Salas y Gómez and Nazca ridges, and discusses the opportunities and challenges for protecting this unique region via existing sectoral organizations and through the emerging international agreement on biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction (BBNJ). Given its exceptional natural and cultural significance, the Salas y Gómez and Nazca ridges should be comprehensively protected from exploitation, pollution and other anthropogenic threats using the best available conservation measures. See: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X20310289