Philip D Hutcherson's scientific contributions

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Article
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Role-playing and unaided opinions were used to forecast the outcome of three negotiations. Consistent with prior research, role-playing yielded more accurate predictions. In two studies on marketing negotiations, the predictions based on role-playing were correct for 53% of the predictions while unaided opinions were correct for only 7% (p < 0.001)...

Citations

... Evidence that is available tends to be indirect and incomplete, typically comparing game-theoretic predictions with the outcomes of context-poor experiments using role players rather than with real-world conflicts. In a search for evidence on the accuracy of game-theoretic predictions, Armstrong and Hutcherson (1989) found two studies (Eliashberg, LaTour, Rangaswamy, and Stern, 1986;and Neslin and Greenhalgh, 1983) that used game theory to predict the outcomes of negotiations. In both studies role-play negotiations, rather than actual negotiations, were the benchmark -the implication being that the outcomes of the role-play experiments (which were imperfectly predicted by game theory) were equivalent to actual negotiation outcomes. ...