Petri Ahlers’s research while affiliated with Stellenbosch University and other places

Six months of chemotherapy using current agents is standard of care for pulmonary, drug-sensitive tuberculosis (TB), even though some are believed to be cured more rapidly and others require longer therapy. Understanding what factors determine the length of treatment required for durable cure in individual patients would allow individualization of treatment durations, provide better clinical tools to determine the of appropriate duration of new regimens, as well as reduce the cost of large Phase III studies to determine the optimal combinations to use in TB control programs. We conducted a randomized clinical trial in South Africa and China that recruited 704 participants with newly diagnosed, drug-sensitive pulmonary tuberculosis and stratified them based on radiographic disease characteristics as assessed by FDG PET/CT scan readers. Participants with less extensive disease (N=273) were randomly assigned to complete therapy after four months or continue receiving treatment for six months. Amongst participants who received four months of therapy, 17 of 141 (12.1%) experienced unfavorable outcomes compared to only 2 of 132 (1.5%) who completed six months of treatment (treatment success 98.4% in B, 86.7% in C (difference -11.7%, 95% CI, -18.2%, -5.3%)). In the non-randomized arm that included participants with more extensive disease, only 8 of 248 (3.2%) experienced unfavorable outcomes. Total cavity volume and total lesion glycolysis at week 16 were significantly associated with risk of unfavorable outcome in the randomized participants. Based on PET/CT scans at TB recurrence, bacteriological relapses (confirmed by whole genome sequencing) predominantly occurred in the same active cavities originally present at baseline. Automated segmentation of the serial PET/CT scans was later performed, and machine-learning was used to classify participants according to their likelihood of relapse, allowing the development of predictive models with good performance based on CT, PET, microbiological and clinical characteristics. These results open the possibility for more efficient studies of future TB treatment regimens.

Background The evolution of tuberculosis (TB) disease during the clinical latency period remains incompletely understood. Methods HIV-uninfected, adult household contacts of rifampicin-resistant TB with a negative symptom screen underwent baseline 18F-Fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission and computed tomography (PET/CT), repeated in 112 after 5-15 months. Following South African and WHO guidelines, participants did not receive preventive therapy. All participants had intensive baseline screening with spontaneous, followed by induced, sputum sampling and were then observed for an average of 4.7 years for culture-positive disease. Baseline PET/CT abnormalities were evaluated in relation to culture-positive disease. Results At baseline, 59 (23.6%) participants had lung PET/CT findings consistent with TB of which 29 (11.6%) were defined as Subclinical TB, and 30 (12%) Subclinical TB-inactive. A further 83 (33.2%) had other lung parenchymal abnormalities and 108 (43.2%) had normal lungs. Over 1107-person years of follow-up 14 cases of culture-positive TB were diagnosed. Six cases were detected by intensive baseline screening, all would have been missed by the South African symptom-based screening strategy and only one detected by a WHO-recommended chest X-Ray screening strategy. Those with baseline Subclinical TB lesions on PET/CT were significantly more likely to be diagnosed with culture-positive TB over the study period, compared to those with normal lung parenchyma (10/29 [34.5%] vs 2/108 [1.9%], Hazard Ratio 22.37 [4.89-102.47, p<0.001]). Conclusions These findings challenge the latent/active TB paradigm demonstrating that subclinical disease exists up to 4 years prior to microbiological detection and/or symptom onset. There are important implications for screening and management of TB.

Background: A high incidence of thromboembolic phenomena has been widely reported in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia. There is, however, a paucity of data detailing the incidence and characteristics of pulmonary emboli (PE) in COVID-19 patients in the South African setting. Objectives: To describe the incidence and characteristics of PE confirmed by CT pulmonary angiogram (CTPA) in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia admitted to a tertiary hospital in the Western Cape, South Africa. Methods: This was a retrospective-, descriptive study of all adult patients with COVID-19 pneumonia confirmed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) undergoing CTPA for suspected PE while admitted to Groote Schuur Hospital. The study period was from 01 April 2020 to 30 September 2020. Results: The study cohort consisted of 116 patients, 59% being female, of whom 29% were pregnant or in the postpartum period. The median age for both genders combined was 49.5 years. The overall incidence of PE was 19%, with 20% in our subset of pregnant and postpartum patients. The majority (64%) of PE’s were reported as being segmental in anatomical location. Conclusion: The noteworthy cohort included patients with pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB), HIV as well as pregnant and postpartum patients. The overall incidence of PE was 19% with no significant differences in demographics, comorbidities or D-dimer levels between patients with or without PE. The importance of a high clinical index of suspicion together with the role of CTPA in diagnosing PE in hospitalised COVID-19 patients is emphasised.

Background A rapid, blood-based triage test that allows targeted investigation for tuberculosis at the point of care could shorten the time to tuberculosis treatment and reduce mortality. We aimed to test the performance of a host blood transcriptomic signature (RISK11) in diagnosing tuberculosis and predicting progression to active pulmonary disease (prognosis) in people with HIV in a community setting. Methods In this prospective diagnostic and prognostic accuracy study, adults (aged 18–59 years) with HIV were recruited from five communities in South Africa. Individuals with a history of tuberculosis or household exposure to multidrug-resistant tuberculosis within the past 3 years, comorbid risk factors for tuberculosis, or any condition that would interfere with the study were excluded. RISK11 status was assessed at baseline by real-time PCR; participants and study staff were masked to the result. Participants underwent active surveillance for microbiologically confirmed tuberculosis by providing spontaneously expectorated sputum samples at baseline, if symptomatic during 15 months of follow-up, and at 15 months (the end of the study). The coprimary outcomes were the prevalence and cumulative incidence of tuberculosis disease confirmed by a positive Xpert MTB/RIF, Xpert Ultra, or Mycobacteria Growth Indicator Tube culture, or a combination of such, on at least two separate sputum samples collected within any 30-day period. Findings Between March 22, 2017, and May 15, 2018, 963 participants were assessed for eligibility and 861 were enrolled. Among 820 participants with valid RISK11 results, eight (1%) had prevalent tuberculosis at baseline: seven (2·5%; 95% CI 1·2–5·0) of 285 RISK11-positive participants and one (0·2%; 0·0–1·1) of 535 RISK11-negative participants. The relative risk (RR) of prevalent tuberculosis was 13·1 times (95% CI 2·1–81·6) greater in RISK11-positive participants than in RISK11-negative participants. RISK11 had a diagnostic area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 88·2% (95% CI 77·6–96·7), and a sensitivity of 87·5% (58·3–100·0) and specificity of 65·8% (62·5–69·0) at a predefined score threshold (60%). Of those with RISK11 results, eight had primary endpoint incident tuberculosis during 15 months of follow-up. Tuberculosis incidence was 2·5 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0·7–4·4) in the RISK11-positive group and 0·2 per 100 person-years (0·0–0·5) in the RISK11-negative group. The probability of primary endpoint incident tuberculosis was greater in the RISK11-positive group than in the RISK11-negative group (cumulative incidence ratio 16·0 [95% CI 2·0–129·5]). RISK11 had a prognostic AUC of 80·0% (95% CI 70·6–86·9), and a sensitivity of 88·6% (43·5–98·7) and a specificity of 68·9% (65·3–72·3) for incident tuberculosis at the 60% threshold. Interpretation RISK11 identified prevalent tuberculosis and predicted risk of progression to incident tuberculosis within 15 months in ambulant people living with HIV. RISK11's performance approached, but did not meet, WHO's target product profile benchmarks for screening and prognostic tests for tuberculosis. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the South African Medical Research Council.

Background Targeted preventive therapy for individuals at highest risk of incident tuberculosis might impact the epidemic by interrupting transmission. We tested performance of a transcriptomic signature of tuberculosis (RISK11) and efficacy of signature-guided preventive therapy in parallel, using a hybrid three-group study design. Methods Adult volunteers aged 18–59 years were recruited at five geographically distinct communities in South Africa. Whole blood was sampled for RISK11 by quantitative RT-PCR assay from eligible volunteers without HIV, recent previous tuberculosis (ie, <3 years before screening), or comorbidities at screening. RISK11-positive participants were block randomised (1:2; block size 15) to once-weekly, directly-observed, open-label isoniazid and rifapentine for 12 weeks (ie, RISK11 positive and 3HP positive), or no treatment (ie, RISK11 positive and 3HP negative). A subset of eligible RISK11-negative volunteers were randomly assigned to no treatment (ie, RISK11 negative and 3HP negative). Diagnostic discrimination of prevalent tuberculosis was tested in all participants at baseline. Thereafter, prognostic discrimination of incident tuberculosis was tested in the untreated RISK11-positive versus RISK11-negative groups, and treatment efficacy in the 3HP-treated versus untreated RISK11-positive groups, during active surveillance through 15 months. The primary endpoint was microbiologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis. The primary outcome measures were risk ratio [RR] for tuberculosis of RISK11-positive to RISK11-negative participants, and treatment efficacy. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02735590. Findings 20 207 volunteers were screened, and 2923 participants were enrolled, including RISK11-positive participants randomly assigned to 3HP (n=375) or no 3HP (n=764), and 1784 RISK11-negative participants. Cumulative probability of prevalent or incident tuberculosis disease was 0·066 (95% CI 0·049 to 0·084) in RISK11-positive (3HP negative) participants and 0·018 (0·011 to 0·025) in RISK11-negative participants (RR 3·69, 95% CI 2·25–6·05) over 15 months. Tuberculosis prevalence was 47 (4·1%) of 1139 versus 14 (0·78%) of 1984 in RISK11-positive compared with RISK11-negative participants, respectively (diagnostic RR 5·13, 95% CI 2·93 to 9·43). Tuberculosis incidence over 15 months was 2·09 (95% CI 0·97 to 3·19) vs 0·80 (0·30 to 1·30) per 100 person years in RISK11-positive (3HP-negative) participants compared with RISK11-negative participants (cumulative incidence ratio 2·6, 95% CI 1·2 to 5·9). Serious adverse events related to 3HP included one hospitalisation for seizures (unintentional isoniazid overdose) and one death of unknown cause (possibly temporally related). Tuberculosis incidence over 15 months was 1·94 (95% CI 0·35 to 3·50) versus 2·09 (95% CI 0·97 to 3·19) per 100 person-years in 3HP-treated RISK11-positive participants compared with untreated RISK11-positive participants (efficacy 7·0%, 95% CI −145 to 65). Interpretation The RISK11 signature discriminated between individuals with prevalent tuberculosis, or progression to incident tuberculosis, and individuals who remained healthy, but provision of 3HP to signature-positive individuals after exclusion of baseline disease did not reduce progression to tuberculosis over 15 months. Funding Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, South African Medical Research Council.

Improved tuberculosis diagnostics and tools for monitoring treatment response are urgently needed. We developed a robust and simple, PCR-based host-blood transcriptomic signature, RISK6, for multiple applications: identifying individuals at risk of incident disease, as a screening test for subclinical or clinical tuberculosis, and for monitoring tuberculosis treatment. RISK6 utility was validated by blind prediction using quantitative real-time (qRT) PCR in seven independent cohorts. Prognostic performance significantly exceeded that of previous signatures discovered in the same cohort. Performance for diagnosing subclinical and clinical disease in HIV-uninfected and HIV-infected persons, assessed by area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, exceeded 85%. As a screening test for tuberculosis, the sensitivity at 90% specificity met or approached the benchmarks set out in World Health Organization target product profiles for non-sputum-based tests. RISK6 scores correlated with lung immunopathology activity, measured by positron emission tomography, and tracked treatment response, demonstrating utility as treatment response biomarker, while predicting treatment failure prior to treatment initiation. Performance of the test in capillary blood samples collected by finger-prick was noninferior to venous blood collected in PAXgene tubes. These results support incorporation of RISK6 into rapid, capillary blood-based point-of-care PCR devices for prospective assessment in field studies.

Background: There is an urgent need for new tools for the diagnosis of TB. We evaluated the usefulness recently described host biomarkers in supernatants from the newest generation of the QuantiFERON test (QuantiFERON Plus) as tools for the diagnosis of active TB. Methods: We recruited individuals presenting at primary health care clinics in Cape Town, South Africa with symptoms requiring investigation for TB disease, prior to the establishment of a clinical diagnosis. Participants were later classified as TB or other respiratory diseases (ORD) based on the results of clinical and laboratory tests. Using a multiplex platform, we evaluated the concentrations of 37 host biomarkers in QuantiFERON Plus supernatants from study participants as tools for the diagnosis of TB. Results: Out of 120 study participants, 35(29.2%) were diagnosed with active TB, 69(57.5%) with ORD whereas 16(13.3%) were excluded. 14(11.6%) of the study participants were HIV infected. Although individual host markers showed potential as diagnostic candidates, the main finding of the study was the identification of a six-marker biosignature in unstimulated supernatants (Apo-ACIII, CXCL1, CXCL9, CCL8, CCL-1, CD56) which diagnosed TB with sensitivity and specificity of 73.9%(95% CI; 51.6-87.8) and 87.6%(95% CI; 77.2-94.5), respectively, after leave-one-out cross validation. Combinations between TB-antigen specific biomarkers also showed potential (sensitivity of 77.3% and specificity of 69.2%, respectively), with multiple biomarkers being significantly different between TB patients, Quantiferon Plus Positive and Quantiferon Plus negative individuals with ORD, regardless of HIV status. Conclusions: Biomarkers detected in QuantiFERON Plus supernatants may contribute to adjunctive diagnosis of TB.

Background Tuberculosis (TB) remains a debilitating, deadly disease that warrants innovative research tools to fully understand the pathogenesis and host immune responses, particularly at the site of infection and disease. In this regard, bronchoscopies with bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) serve as a valuable technique for site of disease sample retrieval for further clinical- and basic research. Here we investigate the feasibility of research bronchoscopies in a low/middle-income area, where TB remains rife, and assess the value of retrieved BAL cells (BALC) for downstream fluorescent-based cellular evaluations. Methods Using quantitative and qualitative methods, we evaluate the outcomes, safety, tolerability, participant -perception and -experience, while also providing insight into participant recruitment and screening processes of our study. Using light microscopy differential counting for BALC analysis, we evaluate the cellular composition of BAL fluid (BALF) from TB patients, healthy community controls and patients with other lung diseases. We also use flow cytometry to describe the challenges associated with fluorescence-based phenotypic analysis of autofluorescent BALC. Results Our findings suggest that research bronchoscopies are safe, acceptable procedures for research participants and are indeed a feasible technique for future study design. We also suggest that the majority of participants are receptive to the proposition of a second research bronchoscopy. This poses an important avenue for research entailing follow-up investigations of the same study participant. Furthermore, our results show that smoking is characterized by retrieval of BALC containing particulate matter, that interferes with fluorescence-based flow cytometry data analysis. Based on light microscopy differential cell counting, our findings suggest that there are differences in the cell yields and cellular composition of the BALF between TB patients, healthy community controls and patients with other lung diseases. We also report on subject characteristics and demographic factors, namely gender and age, that have the potential to affect cell yields and cellular data of BALF. Conclusions These findings will serve as a valuable reference for appropriate planning and design of studies involving clinical bronchoscopies for TB and lung disease research.

Background: There is a growing interest in the use of 18F-FDG PET-CT to monitor tuberculosis (TB) treatment response. However, TB causes complex and widespread pathology, which is challenging to segment and quantify in a reproducible manner. To address this, we developed a technique to standardise uptake (Z-score), segment and quantify tuberculous lung lesions on PET and CT concurrently, in order to track changes over time. We used open source tools and created a MATLAB script. The technique was optimised on a training set of five pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) cases after standard TB therapy and 15 control patients with lesion-free lungs. Results: We compared the proposed method to a fixed threshold (SUV > 1) and manual segmentation by two readers and piloted the technique successfully on scans of five control patients and five PTB cases (four cured and one failed treatment case), at diagnosis and after 1 and 6 months of treatment. There was a better correlation between the Z-score-based segmentation and manual segmentation than SUV > 1 and manual segmentation in terms of overall spatial overlap (measured in Dice similarity coefficient) and specificity (1 minus false positive volume fraction). However, SUV > 1 segmentation appeared more sensitive. Both the Z-score and SUV > 1 showed very low variability when measuring change over time. In addition, total glycolytic activity, calculated using segmentation by Z-score and lesion-to-background ratio, correlated well with traditional total glycolytic activity calculations. The technique quantified various PET and CT parameters, including the total glycolytic activity index, metabolic lesion volume, lesion volumes at different CT densities and combined PET and CT parameters. The quantified metrics showed a marked decrease in the cured cases, with changes already apparent at month one, but remained largely unchanged in the failed treatment case. Conclusions: Our technique is promising to segment and quantify the lung scans of pulmonary tuberculosis patients in a semi-automatic manner, appropriate for measuring treatment response. Further validation is required in larger cohorts.