Peter Urbach's research while affiliated with The London School of Economics and Political Science and other places
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Publications (6)
This is an updated, revised and enlarged edition of Howson and Urbach's account of scientific method from the Bayesian standpoint. The book offers both an introduction to probability theory and a philosophical commentary on scientific inference. This new edition includes chapter exercises and extended material on topics such as regression analysis,...
Bayesian scientific reasoning has a sound foundation in logic and provides a unified approach to the evaluation of deterministic and statistical theories, unlike its main rivals.
Mayo (1987) sought to discredit Urbach's (1985) arguments against randomization as a universal requirement in clinical and agricultural trials. The present reply rebuts Mayo's criticisms.
review the background to the development of theory of inductive inference / note [that] the apparent impossibility of determining objective prior probabilities in any non-arbitrary manner has been a powerful factor in convincing many people that a probabilistic theory of inductive inference was impossible / show [that] debates about methods for det...
Citations
... I think it presents a natural retreat for proponents of the ambiguity approach to 'evidence' and positive relevance theorists more generally (e.g. Carnap 1962: 462, Salmon 1983, Howson and Urbach 2006. If one thinks that the pregnancy test example speaks in favour of 'incremental evidence' being defined in terms of an increase in probability, then one should, I think, also take it that it speaks in favour of PRCE. ...
![[object Object]](https://i1.rgstatic.net/ii/profile.image/624761243701249-1525966096138_Q64/Colin-Howson.jpg)
... A common view in contemporary philosophy of statistics is Subjective Bayesianism, according to which statistical reasoning is based on arbitrarily chosen probabilities (Ramsey 1990;Howson and Urbach 2006). In this section, I shall explain how Tinbergen and Keynes both differed from this subjectivist position regarding statistical research. ...
... 1. E is a novel prediction of H We include the term 'novel' here to ensure that E is a genuine prediction of H (see Howson and Urbach 1991). Further, confirmation is a matter of degrees, and it is reasonable to hold that E strongly confirms H , or confirms H to a high degree, if: ...
... Other authors are less equivocal, arguing that NHST should be abandoned entirely (e.g., Cohen 1994;Gregson 1997;Howson & Urbach 1993, 1994Hunter 1997). Howson and Urbach's (1994) conclusion, for example, is that "The principles of significance testing and estimation are simply wrong, and clearly beyond repair; they are the phlogiston and alchemy of twentieth century statistics; and statisticians in the next century will look back on them in sheer wonderment" (p. 54). ...
... Comments and discussions on Formula (12) can be found in (Bradley, 1994;Diaconis and Zabell, 1982;Good, 1981;Howson and P Urbach, 1993;Jeffrey, 2004;Skyrms, 1987) and a brief historical discussion is presented in Section 6. ...
