Peter M. Robinson’s research while affiliated with London School of Economics and Political Science and other places

We study a functional version of nonstationary fractionally integrated time series, covering the functional unit root as a special case. The time series taking values in an infinite-dimensional separable Hilbert space are projected onto a finite number of sub-spaces, the level of nonstationarity allowed to vary over them. Under regularity conditions, we derive a weak convergence result for the projection of the fractionally integrated functional process onto the asymptotically dominant sub-space, which retains most of the sample information carried by the original functional time series. Through the classic functional principal component analysis of the sample variance operator, we obtain the eigenvalues and eigenfunctions which span a sample version of the dominant sub-space. Furthermore, we introduce a simple ratio criterion to consistently estimate the dimension of the dominant sub-space, and use a semiparametric local Whittle method to estimate the memory parameter. Monte-Carlo simulation studies are given to examine the finite-sample performance of the developed techniques.

We develop refined inference for spatial regression models with predetermined regressors. The ordinary least squares estimate of the spatial parameter is neither consistent nor asymptotically normal, unless the elements of the spatial weight matrix uniformly vanish as sample size diverges. We develop refined testing of the hypothesis of no spatial dependence, without requiring such negligibility of spatial weights, by formal Edgeworth expansions. We also develop such higher-order expansions for both an unstudentized and a studentized transformed estimate, where the studentized one can be used to provide refined interval estimates. A Monte Carlo study of finite sample performance is included.

In this paper, we consider efficiency improvement in a nonparametric panel data model with cross-sectional dependence. A Generalized Least Squares (GLS)-type estimator is proposed by taking into account this dependence structure. Parameterizing the cross-sectional dependence, a local linear estimator is shown to be dominated by this type of GLS estimator. Also, possible gains in terms of rate of convergence are studied. Asymptotically optimal bandwidth choice is justified. To assess the finite sample performance of the proposed estimators, a Monte Carlo study is carried out. Further, some empirical applications are conducted with the aim of analyzing the implications of the European Monetary Union for its member countries.

This paper studies stationary functional time series with long‐range dependence, and estimates the memory parameter involved. Semiparametric local Whittle estimation is used, where periodogram is constructed from the approximate first score, which is an inner product of the functional observation and estimated leading eigenfunction. The latter is obtained via classical functional principal component analysis. Under the restrictive condition of constancy of the memory parameter over the function support, and other conditions which include rather unprimitive ones on the first score, the estimate is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal with asymptotic variance free of any unknown parameter, facilitating inference, as in the scalar time series case. Although the primary interest lies in long‐range dependence, our methods and theory are relevant to short‐range dependent or negative dependent functional time series. A Monte‐Carlo study of finite sample performance and an empirical example are included.

We study a functional version of fractionally integrated time series, covering the functional unit root as a special case. The functional time series are projected onto a finite number of sub-spaces, the level of nonstationarity allowed to vary over them. Under regularity conditions, we derive a weak convergence result for the projection of the fractionally integrated functional process onto the asymptotically dominant sub-space, which retains most of the sample information carried by the original functional time series. Through the classic functional principal component analysis of the sample variance operator, we obtain the eigenvalues and eigenfunctions which span a sample version of the dominant sub-space. Furthermore, we introduce a simple ratio criterion to consistently estimate the dimension of the dominant sub-space, and use a semiparametric local Whittle method to estimate the memory parameter. Monte-Carlo simulation studies and empirical applications are given to examine the finite-sample performance of the developed techniques.

The paper develops point estimation and asymptotic theory with respect to a semiparametric model for time series with moving mean and unconditional heteroscedasticity. These two features are modelled nonparametrically, whereas autocorrelations are described by a short memory stationary parametric time series model. We first study the usual least squares estimate of the coefficient of the first-order autoregressive model based on constant but unknown mean and variance. Allowing for both the latter to vary over time in a general way we establish its probability limit and a central limit theorem for a suitably normed and centred statistic, giving explicit bias and variance formulae. As expected mean variation is the main source of inconsistency and heteroscedasticity the main source of inefficiency, though we discuss circumstances in which the estimate is consistent for, and asymptotically normal about, the autoregressive coefficient, albeit inefficient. We then consider standard implicitly-defined Whittle estimates of a more general class of short memory parametric time series model, under otherwise more restrictive conditions. When the mean is correctly assumed to be constant, estimates that ignore the heteroscedasticity are again found to be asymptotically normal but inefficient. Allowing a slowly time-varying mean we resort to trimming out of low frequencies to achieve the same outcome. Returning to finite order autoregression, nonparametric estimates of the varying mean and variance are given asymptotic justification, and forecasting formulae developed. Finite sample properties are studied by a small Monte Carlo simulation, and an empirical example is also included.

This paper studies stationary functional time series with long range dependence, and estimates the self-similarity parameter involved. Semiparametric local Whittle estimation is used, where the discrete Fourier transform and periodogram are constructed for the approximate first score which is an inner product of the functional observation and estimated leading eigenfunction. The latter is obtained via the classic functional principal component analysis. The estimate is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal with asymptotic variance free of any unknown parameter, facilitating inference. Although the primary interest lies in long-range dependence, our methods and theory are relevant to short-range dependent or negative dependent functional time series. A Monte-Carlo simulation study assesses finite-sample performance.

We discuss developments and future prospects for statistical modeling and inference for spatial data that have long memory. While a number of contributons have been made, the literature is relatively small and scattered, compared to the literatures on long memory time series on the one hand, and spatial data with short memory on the other. Thus, over several topics, our discussions frequently begin by surveying relevant work in these areas that might be extended in a long memory spatial setting.

In a general class of semiparametric pure spatial models (having no explanatory variables) allowing nonlinearity in the parameter and the weight matrix, we propose adaptive tests and estimates which are asymptotically efficient in the presence of unknown, nonparametric distributional form. Feasibility of adaptive estimation is verified and its efficiency improvement over Gaussian pseudo maximum likelihood is shown to be either less than, or more than, for models with explanatory variables, depending on properties of the spatial weight matrix. An adaptive Lagrange Multiplier testing procedure for lack of spatial dependence is proposed and this, and our adaptive parameter estimate, are extended to cover regression with spatially correlated errors.