Paul Joe’s research while affiliated with Environment Canada and other places

Insights from Forecast Demonstration Projects and Research Development Projects, training workshops and symposia, conducted between 2000 and 2024 are summarized. The projects were organized by the Nowcasting and Mesoscale Research Working Group of the World Weather Research Program of the World Meteorological Organization. The objective was to advance, promote and build capacity in nowcasting and very short-range forecasting. The projects were associated with the Olympic Games, emergency management and aviation services. They brought international experts together to work in a collaborative fashion. Extensive interaction with end-users and decision-makers expanded and extended the scope of services from traditional weather hazards (heavy rain, wind, hail, lightning) to include specific user needs (e.g., visibility in complex terrain or airport runways, periods of calm winds or light rain, heat stress). Substantial progress has been made in many areas including: advanced radar nowcasting algorithms, stochastic nowcasts, kilometric and hectometric numerical weather prediction models; blending of observations and models and multi-model systems. Verification was a key and valuable component of the projects quantifying the results. Also, the types of services have expanded to include both summer and winter services, complex terrain and urban environments, air transport, air quality, hydrology and health. Insights are presented in all aspects of nowcasting and very short-range forecasting from end-user decision-making, critical role of the forecaster, forecast systems (models, heuristics, observations), to science and knowledge gaps.

The Women’s Slope Style event of 11–12 February 2018 at the PyeongChang 2018 Olympic Winter Games posed considerable challenges to the competitors and decision-makers, requiring sub-kilometer and sub-minute weather predictions in complex terrain. The gusty wind conditions were unfair and unsafe as the competitors could not achieve sufficient speed to initiate or complete their jumps. The term micro-nowcasting is used here to reflect the extreme high-resolution nature of these science and service requirements. The World Meteorological Organization has conducted several research development and forecast demonstration projects to advance, accelerate and promote the art of nowcasting. Data from compact automatic weather stations, located along the field of play, reported every minute and were post-processed using time series, Hovmöller and wavelet transforms to succinctly present the information. The analyses revealed dominant frequencies of about 20 min, presumed to be associated with vortex shedding from the mountain ridges, but were unable to directly capture the gusts that affected the competitors. The systemic challenges from this and previous projects are reviewed. They include the lack of adequate scientific knowledge of microscale processes, gaps in modeling, the need for post-processing, forecast techniques, managing ever-changing service requirements and highlights the role of observations and the critical role of the forecaster. These challenges also apply to future high-resolution operational weather and warning services.

Weather forecasts are the foundation of much of the information needed in the warnings we have been considering. To be useful, they require knowledge of the current atmospheric state as a starting point. In this chapter, we first look at the methods used to predict the weather and the resulting demands for observations. Then, we explore the wide variety of sensors and platforms used to obtain this information. There has been a long history of close working between sensor and platform designers and meteorologists that has produced spectacular advances in forecast accuracy. However, the latest high-resolution models require new approaches to obtaining observations that will require different collaborations. Examples are presented of partnerships in space observing and in aviation, a demonstration system from Canada, and the use of testbeds and observatories as environments for progress.

Strong gusty wind events were responsible for some of the poor performances of competitors and resulted in schedule changes during the PyeongChang 2018 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games. Three events at two venues were investigated to document and articulate the wind forecasting and nowcasting challenges. Upper air analysis showed that the Games were dominated by northwesterly synoptic flow. Froude and Reynolds number analyses indicated that vortex shedding or wake turbulence were the dominant mechanisms in the lee of the mountains where the free-style competitions were conducted. Three types of wind data (10 and 1 min averages plus 1 minute maximums) from automatic weather stations that were reported every minute were analyzed using advanced techniques (Hovmueller, wavelet and eigen analysis frequency estimation). For the two days of Event 1, the conditions were well mixed throughout the day and night. For the other events, diurnal variations were observed with a stable atmosphere at night, well mixed in the afternoon and with 2–4 hour transition periods in the morning and evenings. Turbulence was best portrayed using wavelet analysis and vortex shedding was best portrayed using the eigen analysis frequency estimation method. The latter revealed dominant frequencies, presumably associated with vortex shedding with periodicities of 20 to 90 minutes. Nowcast implications are discussed.

For this volume, a survey was conducted among WMO Members in 2018 to judge the level of service provision in each area, the extent to which users and providers collaborate and the status of urban services currently provided. The common hazards that require Integrated Urban Services are identified as heavy rainfall, flooding, windstorms, tropical storms, heatwaves, thunderstorms and air pollution. Meteorological services to support the needs of integrated services were reported to be more mature than the services related to hydrology and air quality. Although the responses largely reflect the perspective of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), they indicate a certain level of availability of the specific urban services and reflect a demand for more integrated approach to provision of the urban services. This Guidance also uses information gathered from 27 demonstration cities to provide examples of types of Integrated Urban Services and their placement within distinct administrative frameworks. The details from these demonstration cities are abstracted to map the level of integration across the services providers (cross-service integration) and between service providers and service users (cross-sectoral integration). The demonstration city summaries support the Member survey results in terms of the relative development of weather versus hydrological and air quality services. Examples of current Integrated Urban Services are dominated by applications for weather hazards linked with disaster management and health. According to the degree of integration, demonstration cities fall into two main categories: one provides basic data, and the other delivers city-specific tailored services to a range of users for managing and mitigating risk from hazards. This Guidance contains a set of recommendations and lessons learned for WMO Members in general and for urban stakeholders in particular.

This chapter describes a new World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) approach to the provision of science-based services to assist the planning of safe, healthy, resilient and climate-friendly cities. The approach is outlined in full in the WMO Guidance on Integrated Urban Hydrometeorological, Climate and Environmental Services. Volume I, Concepts and Methodology publication. WMO Guidance for Urban Integrated Hydrometeorological, Climate and Environmental Services. Volume I: Concept and Methodology. WMO-No: 1234, https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=9903, 2019a, which has been approved for promotion and communication to WMO Members. Highlighted here are the underlying concepts and methods that underpin the services to help manage cities on a day-to-day basis, responding to short-term hazards but also to prepare for climate change are described. Heterogeneous dense observation networks, high-resolution forecasts, multi-hazard early warning systems, long-term climate prediction and service applications all working in combination are at the heart of such services, the implementation of which will support mitigation and adaptation strategies for achieving thriving climate resilient cities and promotion of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. To meet the needs of urban areas, the concept of Integrated Urban Hydrometeorological, Climate and Environmental Services (IUS) is embedded in a multidisciplinary approach that identifies the requisite partnerships, including research agencies, city governments, international organizations, and private sector stakeholders, to establish and sustain urban services. As this is an emerging and diverse service, the requirements are broad with considerable research, development, capacity building and cross-service integrations yet to be done. In addition to providing an overview of the concept, we set out the challenges and recommended path forward to develop and implement IUS.