Panmao Zhai's research while affiliated with The State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather and other places

Publications (39)

Article
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The magnitude asymmetry between positive and negative extreme anomalies in gross primary productivity (GPP) and the underlying mechanism have been investigated based on daily records from the data-driven and in-situ datasets. Distinct magnitude asymmetries of daily GPP extreme anomalies (DGEAs) have been identified between forested and non-forested...
Article
The greening and browning of global vegetation are driven by various processes such as climate change, CO2 fertilization, and land management, etc. From the perspective of the vegetation-water-heat relationship, the above processes can be briefly summarized as two types of eco-hydrological processes: 1. dryness change; 2. usage change. We here pres...
Article
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Climate change is expected to result in more frequent and intense heat waves (HWs) in South Asia (SA). The simultaneous increases in temperature and population will exacerbate the population exposure to future HWs. Here we estimate the future population exposure to daytime and nighttime HWs in SA using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (C...
Article
This study presents the improved future projections of the climate “warming—wetting” trend and climate extremes with different return periods in Northwest China at different global warming levels. The projections are based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations constrained by the high-resolution observation dataset...
Article
The magnitude asymmetry between positive and negative extreme anomalies in gross primary productivity (GPP) and the underlying mechanism have been investigated based on daily records from the data-driven and in situ datasets. Distinct magnitude asymmetries of daily GPP extreme anomalies (DGEAs) have been identified between forested and non-forested...
Article
Northeastern China has experienced a significant increase in summer compound hot and dry events (CHDEs), posing a threat to local agricultural production and sustainable development. This study investigates the detectable anthropogenic signal in the long-term trend of CHDE and quantifies the contribution of different external forcings. A probabilit...
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Precipitation extremes, such as the record-breaking Meiyu characterized by frequent occurrences of rainstorms that resulted in severe flooding over the Yangtze—Huai River valley (YHRV) in June–July 2020, are always attracting considerable interest, highlighting the importance of improving the forecast accuracy at the medium-to-long range. To elevat...
Article
Two global experiments were carried out to investigate the effects of dynamic vegetation processes on numerical climate simulations from 1948 to 2008. The NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) was coupled with a biophysical model, the Simplified Simple Biosphere Model (SSiB) version 2 (GFS/SSiB2), and it was also coupled with a biophysical and dynamic...
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Plain Language Summary Meiyu rainfall over the middle‐lower reaches of Yangtze River (MLYR) is characterized by strong intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs, with the period of 10–90 days). While the quasi‐biweekly (10–20‐day) oscillation of MLYR rainfall has been well acknowledged, we found that significant 25–60‐day ISOs of rainfall also exist in eigh...
Article
Extremely anomalous features of Meiyu in 2020 over the Yangtze-Huai River basin (YHRB) and associated causes in perspective of the large-scale circulation are investigated in this study, based on the Meiyu operational monitoring information and daily data of precipitation, global atmospheric reanalysis, and sea surface temperature (SST). The main r...
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Plain Language Summary Policy‐makers and stakeholders have long been informed of that climate change has altered and continues to alter the profile of extremes, for example, frequency, magnitude, duration, and/or seasonality, creating unprecedented events with catastrophic consequences. But they have been seldom told that a changing climate is also...
Article
We analyzed the spatiotemporal variations in surface air temperature and key climate change indicators over the Tibetan Plateau during a common valid period from 1979 to 2018 to evaluate the performance of different datasets on various timescales. We used observations from 22 in-situ observation sites, the CRA-40/Land (CRA) reanalysis dataset, the...
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Under the background of global change,the cryosphere and atmosphere over the Tibetan Plateau (TP)are changing rapidly,which seriously affects the ecological environment of“Asian Water Tower”and“the Third Pole”. This paper reviews some issues in the research on climate change over the TP in recent years,including the change of extreme climate events...
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Wetting in the south while drying in the north during the last few decades constitutes the well-known ‘southern flood–northern drought’ (SFND) precipitation pattern over eastern China. The fingerprint of anthropogenic influence on this dipole pattern of regional precipitation trends has not been confirmed, especially for forced changes in relevant...
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China's climate has been warming since the 1950s, with surface air temperature increasing at a rate higher than the global average. Changes of the climate have exerted substantial impacts on water resources, agriculture, ecosystems, and human health. Attributing past changes to causes provides a scientific foundation for national and international...
Article
Persistence is an important property of precipitation and its related impacts. However, changes in persistent precipitation and the possible underlying mechanisms in the context of global warming have not yet been discussed in sufficient depth. In this study, the changes in persistent precipitation in summer and related atmospheric circulation patt...
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Future changes in the frequency of extreme drought events are of vital importance for risk assessment and relevant policy making. But a reliable estimation of their probability is intrinsically challenging due to limited available observations or simulations. Here, we use two large ensemble simulations, 50 members from CanESM2 and 40 members from C...
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Plain Language Summary Changes to weather and climate extremes at individual locations can be highly uncertain due to natural variability. Much of the natural variability in precipitation extremes occurs on small spatial scales, and thus analyzing changes at different locations in a region with a field significance test can help extract information...
Article
Warming amplification over the Arctic Pole (AP hereafter) and Third Pole (Tibetan Plateau, TP hereafter) can trigger a series of climate responses and have global consequences. Arctic amplification (AA) and Tibetan amplification (TA) are the most significant characteristics of climate change patterns over the two Poles. In this study, trends, mecha...
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Warming has resulted in increases in frequency, intensity and/or duration of droughts in most land regions over the globe. Nevertheless, knowledge on how ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE) responds to extreme drought stress and whether the responses are affected by drought timing is still limited. In this study, we examined the changes in ecosyst...
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Traditional univariate analysis on weather and climate extremes failed to consider temporally compounding events and the resulting cascading impacts. A case in point is a sequence of flood and heatwave within a week, which slows recovery and amplifies damages. We show that across China, floods and heatwaves seldom occurred serially within seven day...
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Compound extreme events always cause severe impacts on human society and the natural system, especially in the populated areas. However, studies on their changes depend on definitions of the related extreme events. In this study, a newly defined compound drought and hot extreme events (CDHEEs) index based on the day-night concurrent hot extreme ind...
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Detecting long-term changes in precipitation extremes over monsoon regions remains challenging, due to large observational uncertainty, high internal variability at the regional scale and climate models’ deficiency in simulating monsoon physics. This is particularly true for Eastern China, as illustrated by limited yet controversial detection resul...
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Compound drought and heat event (CDHE) causes severe impacts on agriculture, ecosystem, and human health. Based on daily maximum surface air temperature and meteorological drought composite index data in China, changing features of CDHEs in warm season from 1961 to 2018 is explored at a daily time scale based on a strict and objective definition in...
Article
Short duration extreme precipitation has devastating Impacts on city area. Local urbanization effects, superimposed upon regional climate change, complicate examination of long‐term changes in short duration precipitation extremes in urban areas. Based on high‐quality rain gauge observations of summertime hourly precipitation in Beijing Region over...
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Using data collected from a specially designed experiment at the Dunhuang Station (40°10′N, 94°31′E, 1150 m) from September 2017 to September 2018, we have characterized the influences of soil moisture and solar altitude on surface spectral albedo in an arid area. The specific settings of our experiment allowed us to minimize the influences of unde...
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Plain Language Summary The Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) provides spatially detailed climate change projections for different regions across the world. These projections are obtained through numerical models that solve the governing equations of the atmosphere over spatial domains, which typically cover continental ar...
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Climate change is not only about changes in means of climatic variables such as temperature, precipitation and wind, but also their extreme values which are of critical importance to human society and ecosystems. To inspire the Swedish climate research community and to promote assessments of international research on past and future changes in extr...
Chapter
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This is the Summary for Policy Makers of the IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, as approved by the IPCC member countries at the Plenary in Monaco, 25 September 2019.
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This is the Summary for Policy Makers of the IPCC Special Report on Land and Climate Change, as approved by the IPCC member countries at the Plenary in Geneva, Aug 2-7 2019.
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Abstract The Paris Agreement has motivated rapid analysis differentiating changes in frequency/intensity of weather and climate extremes in 1.5 versus 2 °C warmer worlds. However, implications of these global warming levels on locations, spatial scales, and emergence timings of hot spots to extremes are more relevant to policy‐making but remain str...
Book
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides regular assessments of the scientific basis of climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report is a comprehensive assessment of our...
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Weather and climate extremes impose serious impacts on natural and human systems. In its fifth assessment report (AR5) and a special report Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provided a thorough assessment of observed and projected changes in...
Article
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During the past two decades since 1997, eastern China has experienced a warming hiatus punctuated by significant cooling in daily-minimum temperature (Tmin), particularly during early–mid winter. By arbitrarily configuring start and end years, a 'vantage hiatus period' in eastern China is detected over 1998–2013, during when the domain-averaged Tmi...

Citations

... Both climate change and population can influence the population's exposure to climate extremes (Jones et al., 2015). Many researchers have investigated population exposure to different types of extreme climate events, including population exposure to extreme precipitation (Chen and Sun, 2019b;Chen et al., 2020a;Shi et al., 2021), extreme rainstorms (Liao et al., 2019), floods (Tellman et al., 2021), heat events (Jones et al., 2015;Jones et al., 2018;Ullah et al., 2022;Zhang et al., 2018), and droughts (Chen and Sun, 2019a;Chen et al., 2018;Zhang et al., 2021a). For instance, Jones et al. (2015) used climate model data to project changes in population exposure into the latter half of the 21st century and found that the future population exposure to heat waves in the continental United States will increase 4-fold to 6-fold over the observed levels. ...
... During the Plum Rain season, the rain belt in eastern China hovers between the south of the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River (Fig. 1a, b), usually accompanied by persistent heavy rainfall and floods, contributing 20-50% of the annual precipitation and causing huge losses not only to the nation but also to the lives and properties of human beings (Wang and LinHo 2002;Xu et al.2003;Chen 2004;Zhou and Yu 2005;Wu et al. 2006a, b). In summer 2020, the Plum Rain season was extraordinarily longer than usual, with the accumulated precipitation anomaly ranking at the top since 1961 (Ding et al. 2021;Liu et al. 2020a;Niu et al. 2021). From June to July, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River experienced consecutive heavy rainfall (Figs. ...
... At present, the evaluation and application of CRA40 has been gradually carried out. Some scholars have argued that the CRA40 dataset is better than other datasets for calculating temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation [29][30][31] and have proven that CRA40 performs better with respect to reproducing the climate and its changing characteristics for Mainland China [32]. ...
... Although changes in HWs and HP have been investigated individually at global and regional scales, few studies have focused on sequential heatwave-heavy precipitation (HWHP) events (i.e., an HP event occurring within several days after an HW event) (Lombardo and Ayyub, 2015;Zhang and Villarini, 2020;Chen et al., 2021;Liao et al., 2021;Wu et al., 2021;You and Wang, 2021;Gu et al., 2022;Ning et al., 2022). In the last decade, rare rainstorms tightly following the record-breaking HWs have been reported in some areas. ...
... Intense research has been continuously conducted on the large-scale circulations and moisture budgets of PEPs over East Asia [3], Europe [4], North America [5], and mainland China [6][7][8][9][10][11][12]. Climatological studies on the relationship between increasing global temperatures and precipitation variability [13][14][15] have further suggested that uneven extreme floods and droughts will tend to occur more in future. Besides this uncertainty on a climate scale, mechanisms for the initiation, moisture aggregation and weakening of each individual PEP are not clear from the perspectives of synoptic and sub-synoptic scales. ...
... The efforts in these regions have mainly been to preserve heat during winter; no definite measures have been proposed to deal with heat prevention during summer. Since the middle of the 20th century, the rate of the rise in the surface temperature in China has been higher than the global average [17]. There is growing evidence of the increasing indoor temperature in these regions. ...
... The amount of precipitation and the precipitation regime (i.e., frequency or intervals among precipitation events) have changed in the past and are projected to change continuously in the future [1]. In some regions or areas such as in Europe [2] and subtropical China [3], the precipitation amount is projected to decrease and thus drought events are expected to become more frequent and severe. The drought-induced tree mortality has been observed around the world [4][5][6]. ...
... Note that the collective significance of trends in a finite number of EPI series in a region might exceed the nominal significance level (i.e. the 0.05 level in our case) due to the inter-site correlations in the precipitation field (Livezey and Chen, 1983). We take this into account by employing a spatiotemporal moving block bootstrap resampling technique (Kiktev et al., 2003;Li et al., 2018;Wang et al., 2021;Wilks, 1997) with a fixed block size of 3 for each EPI (see Li et al., 2018 for details). The fixed block size of 3 has been shown to be adequate to represent the inter-annual serial correlation in the EPIs (Kiktev et al., 2003;Li et al., 2018). ...
... Bengtsson et al., 2004;Serreze et al., 2009;Semenov et al., 2021). A warmer Arctic challenged science to establish the linkages between i.e. the Arctic Ocean surrounding the North Pole and the region encompassing the Hindu Kush Himalaya mountain range and the Tibetan Plateau, also denoted as the Third Pole (You et al., 2021). The challenges faced in the Third Pole and mid to low latitudes due to the impacts of rising temperatures are to some degree resemble those in the Arctic (Marsden, 2017). ...
... The effects of excess/lack of precipitation on WUE have been studied in various ecosystems across the planet (Liu et al., 2016;Huang et al., 2021). However, these effects differ between ecosystems and between different climatic conditions, with no consensual effect being identified in the literature. ...