Oliver Hülsewig’s research while affiliated with Munich University of Applied Sciences and other places

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Publications (67)


Macroprudential capital regulation and fiscal balances in the euro area
  • Article
  • Full-text available

April 2024

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6 Reads

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1 Citation

Journal of International Money and Finance

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Oliver Hülsewig

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Figure 2: Capital-based macroprudential policy indicator
Figure 5: Alternative unconventional monetary policy measures
Figure 9: Reactions of the primary balance for shocks from different capital-based macroprudential indicators Capital-based MPI from MaPPED
Figure 10: Alternative model specifications
Macroprudential Capital Regulation and Fiscal Balances in the Euro Area

January 2024

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1 Read

SSRN Electronic Journal

We examine the fiscal footprint of macroprudential policy in euro area countries arising through the bond market channel (Reis, 2021). Using local projections, we estimate impulse responses of the fiscal balance to an unexpected tightening in macroprudential capital regulation. Our findings suggest a dichotomy between country groups. In peripheral countries, the cyclically adjusted primary balance ratio deteriorates after a restrictive capital-based macroprudential policy shock. Since banks are important investors in domestic government debt, the shift in the public budget toward higher borrowing after the innovation might pose a threat to financial stability to the extent that sovereign risk increases. By contrast, in core countries, the cyclically adjusted primary balance ratio barely reacts to a sudden tightening in capital regulation.




Bank Capital Regulation in the Euro Area and the Sovereign-Bank Nexus

January 2023

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6 Reads


Euro Area Periphery Countries' Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy Surprises*

February 2022

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14 Reads

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8 Citations

Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics

We estimate local projections to explore how fiscal policy in euro area periphery countries responds to monetary policy shocks that lower sovereign bond yields. In particular, we assess whether the disciplining effect of financial markets on public finances is undermined by the ability of monetary policy to affect the conditions of external funds. We find that the fiscal balance, on average, improves in response to monetary policy surprises that bring down yields on sovereign bonds.





Citations (32)


... The results suggest a disciplining effect of financial markets, indicating that fiscal consolidations occur under market pressure. Furthermore, the fiscal balance in peripheral countries of the euro area seems to improve on average in response to unconventional monetary policy shocks that bring down sovereign bond yields (Hülsewig and Rottmann, 2022). We add to this literature by investigating the effects of macroprudential policy shocks. ...

Reference:

Macroprudential capital regulation and fiscal balances in the euro area
Euro Area Periphery Countries' Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy Surprises*
  • Citing Article
  • February 2022

Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics

... We note that among the literature on the existing empirical evidence, so far only a few studies have estimated the direct impact of government bond yields on lending rates in Europe. While some of these papers focus on Italian banks only (Albertazzi et al., 2014;Zoli, 2013;Bocola, 2014), there are a few cross-country papers for selected euro area countries (Neri, 2013;Neri and Ropele, 2015;Hristov et al., 2014). The European Central Bank (2013) addressed the issue whether an inclusion of a sovereign risk indicator improved the modeling of the interest rate pass-through of monetary policy decisions in the euro area. ...

Smells Like Fiscal Policy? Assessing the Potential Effectiveness of the ECB's OMT Program
  • Citing Article
  • January 2014

SSRN Electronic Journal

... Serido et al. selected nine important indicators that can affect financial risk from three aspects: solvency, operational ability, and development potential to establish a financial risk early warning indicator system in institutions of higher learning [16]. Hristov et al. introduced a deep neural network in DL for early warning of shared financial risks [17]. According to the characteristics and decision-making process of college financial data, Wang studied and analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of the clustering algorithm and classification algorithm, proposed an improved decision tree algorithm based on metrics; and established a college financial management model [18]. ...

Financial Frictions and Inflation Differentials in a Monetary Union
  • Citing Article
  • January 2010

SSRN Electronic Journal

... where is the deposit rate, ℎ and are some positive constants, and is nominal money supply (Huelsewig et al., 2005). The Blackorby-Schworm argument made in connection with market loan demand might as well apply to market loan supply in the face of identical banks. ...

Bank Loan Supply and Monetary Policy Transmission in Germany: An Assessment Based on Matching Impulse Responses
  • Citing Article
  • January 2005

SSRN Electronic Journal

... Similar to Budnik et al. (2019), we assume that the adverse macroeconomic scenario is followed by a credit supply shock. Several studies document the importance of credit supply shocks in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis, reflecting the emerging consensus according to which banks are an independent source of shocks rather than just passive players transmitting macroeconomic shocks (Bijsterbosch & Falagiarda, 2015;Fadejeva et al., 2017;Nikolay et al., 2017). These studies find that credit supply shocks have been an important driver of business cycle fluctuations in the euro area, with a negative contribution in the aftermath of the financial crisis. ...

Loan Supply Shocks During the Financial Crisis: Evidence for the Euro Area
  • Citing Article
  • January 2011

SSRN Electronic Journal

... In this study, we follow the empirical literature and impose zero and sign restrictions to identify an unconventional monetary policy shock. Our model considers more variables than the models (2013), GHP2014 refers to Gambacorta et al. (2014), WW2016 refers to Weale and Wieladek (2016), BDP2017 refers to Boeckx et al. (2017), HHW2018 refers to Hesse et al. (2018), LR2019 refers to Lewis and Roth (2019) and HHS2021 refers to Hristov et al. (2020). ...

Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks in the Euro Area and the Sovereign-Bank Nexus
  • Citing Article
  • January 2020

SSRN Electronic Journal

... However, by incentivising banks to increase their exposure to domestic government debt, macroprudential policy, for example a tightening of capital regulation, might contribute to strengthening the so-called sovereign-bank nexus (BCBS, 2017;Altavilla et al., 2017;IMF, 2014IMF, , 2018Hristov et al., 2021), which is perceived as a core problem of the European debt crisis of 2010-2012, as it triggered doom loops (Acharya et al., 2014a;Brunnermeier et al., 2016;Farhi and Tirole, 2018;Dell'Ariccia et al., 2018). Particularly, banks' solidity in peripheral countries was strained by the downgrading of governments' creditworthiness, which induced a severe drop in the market value of sovereign bonds. ...

Macroprudential Policy and the Sovereign-Bank Nexus in the Euro Area

SSRN Electronic Journal

... Our research examines the relationship between the Fed monetary policy and the contagion effect of bank failures. Some studies have examined the impact of monetary policy on bank exposure (Altunbas et al., 2010;Angeloni et al., 2015;Angeloni & Faia, 2013;Gomez et al., 2021;Hristov et al., 2020;Ioannidou et al., 2009, p. 45;Smets, 2018), but to our knowledge, none specifically explore the impact of monetary policy during the SVB crisis. Therefore, we fill this gap in the literature and shed light on the influence of the Fed monetary policy on the contagion effect of bank failure. ...

Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks in the Euro Area and the Sovereign-Bank Nexus
  • Citing Article
  • January 2020

SSRN Electronic Journal

... N. Hristov, O. Hülsewig and B. Kolb However, by incentivising banks to increase their exposure to domestic government debt, macroprudential policy, for example a tightening of capital regulation, might contribute to strengthening the so-called sovereign-bank nexus (BCBS, 2017;Altavilla et al., 2017;IMF, 2014IMF, , 2018Hristov et al., 2021), which is perceived as a core problem of the European debt crisis of 2010-2012, as it triggered doom loops (Acharya et al., 2014a;Brunnermeier et al., 2016;Farhi and Tirole, 2018;Dell'Ariccia et al., 2018). Particularly, banks' solidity in peripheral countries was strained by the downgrading of governments' creditworthiness, which induced a severe drop in the market value of sovereign bonds. ...

Macroprudential Policy and the Sovereign-Bank Nexus in the Euro Area

SSRN Electronic Journal

... Hence, cash and in-kind financing is required to implement the reform plans. [5] André Carlos's study examined the development of institutional reform as financial reforms in Brazil, by adopting a historical time frame in financial institutions to finance industrial projects within the country. According to it, the state modified the routine framework for financial transactions by reducing the time for performing services while providing sufficient support for the export trend as a hybrid framework. ...

Monetary financing and fiscal discipline
  • Citing Article
  • July 2021

International Review of Law and Economics