Olga Rakitova’s scientific contributions

Summary & Conclusions Production volumes and capacities More than 650 000 tons per of pellets were produced in Russia in 2008. We expect that more than 850 000 (and even up to 1 000 000 tons) tons of pellets could be produced per year by the end of 2009.The production capacity of pellet plants was more than 1 290 000 tons per year in 2008. We expect that the capacity will be more than 1 700 000 (and even up to 2 000 000 tons) tons per year in 2009. Belarusian pellet production is the smallest among 3 countries. They produce about 60 000 tons of pellets per year. Ukrainians could produce about 200 000 tons of pellets in 2009. The pellet plant capacities are increasing in all three countries. Internal pellet market Pellet domestic market is increasing in all 3 countries. We expect that it could be about 30% in Russia by the end of 2009. It could be the same in Ukraine. Belarus can organize it and reach at least 5-10% level.Domestic market for fuel pellets keeps growing in Russia as well as in Ukraine and Belarus. Main growth contributors are: · private boiler-house owners – production enterprises, warehouses and logistics centres switching to pellets to decrease fuel costs and improve heat supply reliability · municipal boiler houses · private house owners Boiler suppliers claim to have supplied over 1000 pellets boilers (below 200 kWth) in 2008 plus several dozens professional pellets boilers (over 200 kWth) have been installed in different regions of Russia by the end of 2008. It is important to know, that while in 2006-07 there were no more than 10 companies offering pellets heating systems, by the beginning of 2009, the number of pellet boiler suppliers is over 50 companies. And they are covering most regions of Russia – at least the regions where pellet are being produced. Internal market in Russia is growing. But it hardly gets any consequent support or even serious attention from the state – but for rare exceptions on local level. As a result the market is developing voluntarily - without any plan. Export markets The pellet export still dominates in all three countries. The prices are going up in 2009. Pellet price is up to 120 Euro per ton on FOB St.Petersburg for bulk industrial pellets in April 2009. Pellet producers were positively influenced by the world financial crises. The devaluation of Ruble increased the profits of companies which export pellets. The European prices for pellets went up again thanks to real winter and pellet producers receive double profits at the moment. The prime costs in Rubles are the same as before devaluation of Ruble which was observed in 2009. The pellet production is developing in all 3 countries and we expect the organization of serious pellet industry in Russia soon.