Olga Monina’s research while affiliated with East-Siberian Institute of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation and other places

This paper sets forth the findings of the research on the traffic accident rate in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, based upon respective regional statistical data for the four-year period from 2015 to 2018. In order to achieve the goal of the research — to identify the main factors affecting the accident rate, — the methods of correlation and regression analysis were used. We obtained regression equations relating the main indicators of the accident rate to the most relevant factors. The quality of the regression equations is characterized by means of the coefficients of correlation between actual and estimated values of the number of RTAs (road traffic accidents), the number of RTA fatalities and injuries. We assessed the role of each factor under consideration by means of confidence estimates and confidence probabilities, and determined factors that have both a positive and a negative influence on the accident rate.

A methodology for traffic management in cities provides for extensive use of computer technologies. Modern international experience shows that traffic management in the urban street and road network, first of all, requires a city-wide management system (intelligent transportation system, ITS). Development of a social process model is a complicated task that can be solved under rather severe restrictions. Therefore, most traffic management tasks are not formalized but solved empirically. Two basic approaches to development of network mathematical models of traffic flows, based on a set of analytical models and on microlevel simulation models, are considered by the authors. Capabilities of various software tools that allow performing modeling are reviewed. As a result, a method for forecasting network control actions affecting traffic flows, based on a piecewise-constant approximation of a traffic flow intensity function of time, is suggested. An example of forecasting control actions (cycle shifts) to ensure coordinated control on highways is given. The suggested approach to modeling of traffic flows in cities is rather simple and efficient. Therefore, it can be of practical interest and can be used when forecasting network control actions in intelligent transportation systems, including in real time and for congested sections of the street-and-road network.

In order to calculate traffic capacity of signaled intersections, it was suggested to apply an approach based on the concept of congestions. The paper states examples of traffic capacity calculation.

The paper gives the results of scientific research, which, being based on probabilistic and statistical modeling, identifies the relationship of certain socio-economic factors and the number of people killed in road accidents in the Russian Federation regions. It notes the identity of processes in various fields, in which there is loss of life. Scientific methods and techniques were used in the process of data processing and study findings: systematic approach, methods of system analysis (algorithmization, mathematical programming) and mathematical statistics. The scientific novelty lies in the formulation, formalization and solving problems related to the analysis of regional road traffic accidents, its modeling taking into account the factors of socio-economic impact.