Norimitsu Ishii’s research while affiliated with U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and other places

The purpose of this study is to clarify the characteristics of elderly people who consider relocation and districts with high percentage of that people in rural areas. So, we conducted investigation in Aizubange-Machi Town, Fukushima Prefecture. The result of investigation, 61.4% of elderly people consider relocation. In addition, "elderly people with the needs of living support", "elderly single and couple households", "elderly people who live with their son's households", "elderly people who enjoy the support", "elderly people who don't own farmland" tend to consider relocation. Moreover, history of districts and distance for town center influences the percentage of the elderly people who have the relocation intention. Therefore, effective measures are different depending on districts even if those districts are included in same municipality.

In recent years, the associations in which the elderly households lend real estate assets to another household to help them change their residence have appeared. Although elderly households have much savings, they require an additional 60,000 yen to live each month. In addition, since the average life span has extended, there is a risk that they might use up their savings in later years of their lives. Real estate utilization of elderly households is expected as a means to improve this situation. Suburban areas have cheap rent rate compared to the central area of the city. Therefore, if the elderly households put out their real estate assets in the market, it will be possible to find new residents of their houses. The purpose of this study is to clarify the number of elderly single and couple households who live in big detached houses located in suburban areas and the features of suburban municipalities that the percentage of those households are high. At first, we analyzed the number of elderly single and couple households who live in big detached house. The analysis revealed that about 3.7 million elderly single and couple households live in residences which are over 100 m² and about 42% of those households live in suburban areas. Then, we analyzed the features of the suburban municipalities where there is high percentage of those households by doing factor analysis. The result of analysis shows that about 38% of these municipalities are located in suburban areas and they are affected by two factors. One factor is the degree of urbanization. The other is population density of factory workers. Finally, we categorize municipalities where there is a high percentage of those households. As a result of cluster analysis, these municipalities can be classified into five types using the following parameters: households, residences, economic levels and industry. Type I is the area where progress in urbanization and percentage of factory workers are low. Municipalities of type I are located in the suburbs of metropolitan area Type II is the area where progress in urbanization and percentage of factory workers are high. Municipalities of type II are also located in the suburbs of metropolitan area. But they are far from the center of the metropolitan area than those of type I. Type III is the area where is not affected by two factors. Municipalities of type III are far from the center of the metropolitan area than those of type II. Type IV is the area that urbanization is not progressing and percentage of factory workers are high. Municipalities of type IV are far from the center of the metropolitan area than type III. Type V is the area where urbanization is not progressing and percentage of factory workers are low. Half of type V is located in the suburbs of metropolitan area. The other half is far from the center of the metropolitan area than those of type IV.

The purpose of this study is to clarify the possibilities and conditions to promote supply of affordable rental housing for elderly single and couple households in suburban areas. We calculated the life cycle cost (LCC) and revenues of the rental housing in municipalities that the percentage of the elderly single and couple households is high. As a result, the suburban areas in the metropolitan areas of big cities tend to be more profitable than the suburban areas in the metropolitan areas of small cities. In addition, the following three points are grasped as conditions for increasing the profitability. The first condition is to build single storey rental housing with more than three rooms. The second condition is to consider supply of housing that are not too wide for elderly single and couple households especially in low land price areas. The third condition is to support procedures for utilizing subsidy measures.

About 80 percent of elderly households have no income except the pension. According to statistics, these households require an additional 60,000 yen to live each month. For this reason, they suffer the risk of using up their savings while they are alive. Therefore, we consider that it might be effective for elderly households to have another source of income. On the other hand, more than 80% elderly households own real estate assets. Promoting real estate assets utilization is considered effective as a method for improving the household budget of elderly households, because elderly people tend to consider that they want to inherit the assets to child households. Already, it has been found that it is difficult to promote real estate assets utilization of elderly households in metropolis. If the elderly rent his or her real estate assets in metropolis, the rent tend to be too high for young households. But, this problem might not occur in suburban areas because land prices in suburban areas tend to be lower than that of commutable areas. Also, there are many workers who live in rented houses in commutable ranges of suburban areas. Thus, there is no need to establish new work places and employment opp.ortunities to find tenants. The purpose of this study is to clarify the possibility that tenants are found and income of rent takes the economic benefit to the elderly households living in suburban areas if they make use of their real estate assets. So, we presumed the rent function from the data of rental housing located in the suburban areas and estimated the rent level of housing stocks with average specs elderly households are living in. As a result, in half of the suburban areas of large cities, the elderly household's real estate assets were estimated to be more than 100,000 yen per month. In suburban areas of small cities, their real estate assets are expected to produce more than 50,000 yen per month of rental income. Then, we compared these results and the rent level that households living in rented house in commutable areas are paying. As a result, in almost all of the suburban area, the number of households living in rented houses who are expected to improve their household budgets by moving to elderly household's residences was more than the number of elderly households living in suburban areas. But, if tenants contract residences which require refurbishment, they have to continue to borrow these housing stocks for about 12 to 21 years in order to obtain the benefit. Finally, we compared the levels of rent income that elderly households gain at the time of utilizing their real estate assets and the levels of living expenses that elderly households pay when they relocate. As a result, in almost all of the suburban areas, there are dwellings which improve their household budgets when they relocate. From the above analysis, there is enough possibility that lenders are found. Furthermore, utilizing real estate assets is likely to bring economic benefits to the elderly households. On the other hand, according to statistics, the number of dwellings that elderly people can borrow tend to be less than that of elderly households in suburban areas. In addition, since these dwellings tend to be narrow, elderly households have to consider how to handle their furniture in the time of relocation. These are cited as obstacles to promoting real estate assets utilization.