Noriko O. Tsuya’s research while affiliated with Keio University and other places

En utilisant les données des enquêtes nationales de 2000 et 2009 sur les conditions familiales et économiques au Japon, cet article examine la relation entre le fait de connaître une personne adoptant des comportements familiaux « innovants » – tels que la cohabitation, les rapports sexuels hors mariage ou le recours à des modes de garde formels des enfants par les mères qui travaillent – et les attitudes envers de tels comportements. Les recherches existantes sur ce sujet sont prolongées de deux manières : en ajoutant une composante longitudinale pour estimer un modèle à effets fixes qui contrôle l’influence de l’hétérogénéité inobservée fixe dans le temps susceptible d’être liée à la fois à la connaissance de l’entourage et à ses propres attitudes ; et en se concentrant plus explicitement sur les différences entre les sexes. On constate que, mises à part les caractéristiques inobservées fixes dans le temps, les changements d’attitude envers les comportements familiaux innovants sont sensibles à une modification de l’entourage adoptant ce même comportement ou un comportement lié. C’est la création de nouveaux liens sociaux qui amène les femmes à reconsidérer le mariage, jusqu’alors perçu comme la condition sine qua non d’une vie épanouie pour les hommes et les femmes.

This study examines the patterns of educational attainment and first employment among young Japanese, and their effects on the likelihood of first marriage, using micro-level data drawn from a national family survey in 2004 and its follow-up in 2007. Attainment of higher education increased dramatically in postwar Japan, and such gains were especially notable for women. Meanwhile, regular employment has decreased, and temporary employment has risen rapidly among young Japanese since the 1990s. The study reveals that obtaining regular employment as the first job strongly enhances the likelihood of first marriage for both genders although the marriage-enhancing effect is stronger for men than for women. First entry to the labor market as a temporary worker also significantly diminishes the likelihood of first marriage for men. Like other industrialized economies in Asia, improving educational attainment is found to be a factor causing declining first marriage among young Japanese women.

The three countries in our study are not only located in the same geographical region of East Asia, they also share many fundamental cultural and social characteristics that make a comparative study of their low fertility interesting and appealing. The cultural backgrounds shared by these East Asian countries can all be traced to the so-called Confucian teachings.

Half century of profound demographic and socioeconomic changes in the three East Asian countries under study has fundamentally altered their social structures as well as life courses and lifestyles of their populations. East Asia has become, as a region, the world’s largest economic powerhouse, with each country having gone through phenomenal economic growth at different periods of time after World War II, leading to rapid improvements in living standards and prolonging life span.

As we discussed in the first chapter of this monograph, the descent to very low fertility of the three East Asian study countries unfolded at different stages of their social and economic developments. While sharing the Confucian cultural heritage and similar stories of postwar economic boom, each country followed its own path of social and economic changes under different policy environments. The expansion of market economies, combined with the erosion of traditional Confucian familial cultural values (Bumpass and Choe 2004; Choe et al. 2014), has restructured these East Asian societies, leading to profound changes in many aspects of family life, including marriage and childbearing.

In all three East Asian countries under study, the initial fertility decline was precipitous and dramatic with the levels of fertility cut by one half or more in around one decade. From shortly after World War II to the late 1950s, Japan experienced a sharp downturn in its fertility.

Demographically, and within the social settings of the three East Asian countries under study where out-of-wedlock childbearing is rare, fertility changes are explained primarily by two demographic factors: changes in the age pattern of marriage among women at reproductive ages and changes in fertility within marriage.

This book examines the trends, underlying factors, and policy implications of fertility declines in three East Asian countries: Japan, South Korea, and China. In contrast to Western countries that have also experienced fertility declines to below-replacement levels, fertility decline in these East Asian countries is most notable in its rapidity and sheer magnitude. After a rapid decline shortly after the war, in which fertility was halved in one decade from 4.5 children per woman in 1947 to 2.1 in 1957, Japan's fertility started to decline to below-replacement levels in the mid-1970s, reaching 1.3 per woman in the early 2000s. Korea experienced one of the most spectacular declines ever recorded, with fertility falling continuously from very high (6.0 per woman) to a below-replacement level (1.6 per woman) between the early 1960s and mid-1980s, reaching 1.1 per woman in 2005. Similarly, after a dramatic decline from very high to low levels in one decade from the early 1970s to early 1980s, China's fertility reached around 1.5 per woman by 2005. Despite differences in timing, tempo, and scale of fertility declines, dramatic fertility reductions have resulted in extremely rapid population aging and foreshadow a long-term population decline in all three countries. This monograph provides a systematic comparison of fertility transitions in these East Asian countries and discusses the economic, social, and cultural factors that may account for their similarities and differences. After an overview of cultural backgrounds, economic transformations, and the evolution of policies, the trends and age patterns of fertility are examined. The authors then investigate changes in women's marriage and childbearing within marriage, the two major direct determinants of fertility, followed by an analysis of the social and economic factors underlying fertility and nuptiality changes, such as education, women's employment, and gender relations at home.