Nikolaos Christidis's research while affiliated with Met Office and other places

... Fire-vegetation models have many structural differences ( Supplementary Fig. 5-7); therefore, they often differ in historical re emission simulations 53,54 . For example, the spread in global annual burned area across seven re-vegetation models in ISIMIP3a is 350-750 Mha 55 . The high complexity of quantifying re is also displayed in the variations among different satellite-based global re products (e.g., GFED 56 , GFAS 57 , and FINN 58 ). ...

... Not surprisingly then, during such particularly threatening events, the media, general public, and political leaders turn to scientists with the question of 'How did climate change affect this event?' As extreme weather events become more severe, this desire for such information necessitates the need to operationalize extreme weather event attribution [10,11]. Indeed, several nations are currently exploring such services that must span a wide variety of extreme weather types [12]. ...

... Not only to reduce nutrient inputs in water bodies but also to retain water on the field, particularly in the dry East of Austria, where annual rainfall during the vegetation period already amounts to less than 500 mm. In a time of climate change, with decreased precipitation during the vegetation period and increased rainfall intensities (Christidis and Stott, 2022), reducing surface runoff and storing water on the field would be highly beneficial. ...

... We note, however, that other studies of more taxa (790 plants, 168 birds, and 79 insects; Stemkovski et al., 2023) and that extends back further in time (1852-2007, albeit not measured each year; Willis et al., 2008) find similar patterns. Datasets exist with longer time periods that could be used for additional tests but, we caution, they are not as standardized, making it difficult to accurately test constancy of responses through time (Christidis et al., 2022). ...

... If the 90% CIs are both positive (negative), the median RAI is considered statistically significant, and then the signal of anthropogenic climate change is considered detectable 88,89 . ...

... The use of radiative forcings to create a spurious 'climate sensitivity' to CO2 have led to absurd claims that increases in the atmospheric CO2 concentration can cause increases in every imaginable form of 'extreme weather event'. One of the more egregious examples of this is the annual supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 'Explaining Extreme Events of [Year] from a Climate Perspective' [Herring et al, 2022]. The series has been published annually since 2012. ...

... Using 20 years of samples centred on the year of the event is ideal; however, hist-nat simulations ended in 2020. Since the hist-nat simulation is stationary in the long run, we used the entire period (1850-2020) as the counterfactual climate conditions, as in Christidis and Stott (2022). The intensity when the return period reached the observed one in the Hist2020 (historical in CMIP6) simulations was compared with that in the corresponding HistNat2020 (hist-nat in CMIP6) simulations (Fig. 2c), and their difference when divided by the intensity of each model's Hist2020 (historical in CMIP6) simulation was regarded as the contribution of anthropogenic forcings to the intensity of 2020-like events (Fig. 2d). ...

... The majority of the literature on extreme urban flooding events in China focuses on impact assessment, vulnerability and risk assessment, and attribution [17,[23][24][25][26][27]. For instance, Dong et al. [28] applied hydrodynamic modeling to assess the risk for people and vehicles during the 20 July 2021 Zhengzhou Flood. ...

... The rapid decline of the Arctic sea ice in recent decades (Kirchmeier-Young et al., 2017;Min et al., 2008;Notz & Stroeve, 2016) is a crucial indicator of greenhouse gas-induced global warming (Bindoff et al., 2013;Hegerl et al., 2007;IPCC, 2021). This decline has far-reaching implications for various components of the Earth's system. ...

... Of importance is when changes in rainfall extremes are expected to 'emerge', i.e., move outside of what has been experienced in the past due to natural climate variability 7 . Recent trends in observed local rainfall extremes have been reported [8][9][10] , with some evidence of these already being influenced by climate change 11 . However, formal detection and attribution at the local scale are not yet possible, with the detection of changes in local hourly extremes expected from the 2040s 12 . ...