Nicolas van de Walle’s research while affiliated with Cornell University and other places

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Publications (124)


Legal autocratisation ahead of the 2021 Zambian elections
  • Article

July 2023

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43 Reads

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11 Citations

Journal of Eastern African Studies

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Nicolas van de Walle

Figure 1.1 Africa's democratization in cross-regional perspective Note: The figure plots the average regional scores according to V-Dem's liberal democracy index (v2x_libdem). Higher scores on the 0-1 index reflect greater electoral democracy. Source: V-Dem.
Figure 1.3 Average annual change in African democracy Note: The figure plots average year-to-year changes across African countries on V-Dem's liberal democracy index (v2x_libdem). The black line represents the average annual change, while the gray area shows the 95% confidence interval. Source: V-Dem.
Figure 1.4 Democratic trends in country cases Note: The figure plots year-to-year changes in V-Dem's liberal democracy index (v2x_libdem). Source: V-Dem.
Figure 1.2D The persistence of the political status quo (Polity IV ) Note: Dotted reference lines indicate the average score (1.05) among African countries on the Polity IV combined regime index from 1990 onwards. Higher values indicate greater democracy. Source: Polity IV.
Figure 1.3A Average annual change in African democracy (V-Dem electoral democracy) Note: The figure plots average year-to-year changes across African countries on V-Dem's electoral democracy index (v2x_polyarchy). Source: V-Dem.

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Democratic Backsliding in Africa? Autocratization, Resilience, and Contention
  • Article
  • Full-text available

December 2022

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467 Reads

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5 Citations

Leonardo R. Arriola

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Nicolas van de Walle

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[...]

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Vibeke Wang

Why have most African countries not achieved greater political liberalization? What explains the lack of progress toward the ideals of liberal democracy across the region? This book advances ongoing debates on democratic backsliding with specific reference to Africa. In examining how incumbent leaders in African countries attempt to contain societal pressures for greater democracy, the chapters explain how governments go beyond the standard tools of manipulation, such as electoral fraud and political violence, to keep democracy from unfolding in their countries. The book emphasizes two distinct strategies that governments frequently use to reinforce their hold on power, but which remain overlooked in conventional analyses; —the legal system and the international system. It—documents how governments employ the law to limit the scope of action among citizens and civil society activists struggling to expand democratic liberties, including the use of constitutional provisions and the courts. The work further demonstrates how governments use their role in international relations to neutralize pressure from external actors, including sovereigntist claims against foreign intervention and selective implementation of donor-promoted policies. While pro-democracy actors can also employ these legal and international strategies to challenge incumbents, in some cases to prevent democratic backsliding, the book shows why and how incumbents have enjoyed institutional advantages when implementing these strategies through the six country case studies of Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

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Figure 8.1 Foreign aid as a percentage of nominal GDP, 1985-2016 Source: Authors' own.
Zambia: Backsliding in a Presidential Regime

December 2022

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73 Reads

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4 Citations

Why have most African countries not achieved greater political liberalization? What explains the lack of progress toward the ideals of liberal democracy across the region? This book advances ongoing debates on democratic backsliding with specific reference to Africa. In examining how incumbent leaders in African countries attempt to contain societal pressures for greater democracy, the chapters explain how governments go beyond the standard tools of manipulation, such as electoral fraud and political violence, to keep democracy from unfolding in their countries. The book emphasizes two distinct strategies that governments frequently use to reinforce their hold on power, but which remain overlooked in conventional analyses; —the legal system and the international system. It—documents how governments employ the law to limit the scope of action among citizens and civil society activists struggling to expand democratic liberties, including the use of constitutional provisions and the courts. The work further demonstrates how governments use their role in international relations to neutralize pressure from external actors, including sovereigntist claims against foreign intervention and selective implementation of donor-promoted policies. While pro-democracy actors can also employ these legal and international strategies to challenge incumbents, in some cases to prevent democratic backsliding, the book shows why and how incumbents have enjoyed institutional advantages when implementing these strategies through the six country case studies of Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.


Democratic Backsliding in Africa?: Autocratization, Resilience, and Contention

December 2022

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136 Reads

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11 Citations

Why have most African countries not achieved greater political liberalization? What explains the lack of progress toward the ideals of liberal democracy across the region? This book advances ongoing debates on democratic backsliding with specific reference to Africa. In examining how incumbent leaders in African countries attempt to contain societal pressures for greater democracy, the chapters explain how governments go beyond the standard tools of manipulation, such as electoral fraud and political violence, to keep democracy from unfolding in their countries. The book emphasizes two distinct strategies that governments frequently use to reinforce their hold on power, but which remain overlooked in conventional analyses; —the legal system and the international system. It—documents how governments employ the law to limit the scope of action among citizens and civil society activists struggling to expand democratic liberties, including the use of constitutional provisions and the courts. The work further demonstrates how governments use their role in international relations to neutralize pressure from external actors, including sovereigntist claims against foreign intervention and selective implementation of donor-promoted policies. While pro-democracy actors can also employ these legal and international strategies to challenge incumbents, in some cases to prevent democratic backsliding, the book shows why and how incumbents have enjoyed institutional advantages when implementing these strategies through the six country case studies of Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.


Legal Strategies: Constitutional, Administrative, Judicial, and Discursive Lawfare

December 2022

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85 Reads

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1 Citation

Why have most African countries not achieved greater political liberalization? What explains the lack of progress toward the ideals of liberal democracy across the region? This book advances ongoing debates on democratic backsliding with specific reference to Africa. In examining how incumbent leaders in African countries attempt to contain societal pressures for greater democracy, the chapters explain how governments go beyond the standard tools of manipulation, such as electoral fraud and political violence, to keep democracy from unfolding in their countries. The book emphasizes two distinct strategies that governments frequently use to reinforce their hold on power, but which remain overlooked in conventional analyses; —the legal system and the international system. It—documents how governments employ the law to limit the scope of action among citizens and civil society activists struggling to expand democratic liberties, including the use of constitutional provisions and the courts. The work further demonstrates how governments use their role in international relations to neutralize pressure from external actors, including sovereigntist claims against foreign intervention and selective implementation of donor-promoted policies. While pro-democracy actors can also employ these legal and international strategies to challenge incumbents, in some cases to prevent democratic backsliding, the book shows why and how incumbents have enjoyed institutional advantages when implementing these strategies through the six country case studies of Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.


International Strategies: Sovereignty Claims and Selective Compliance

December 2022

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47 Reads

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1 Citation

Why have most African countries not achieved greater political liberalization? What explains the lack of progress toward the ideals of liberal democracy across the region? This book advances ongoing debates on democratic backsliding with specific reference to Africa. In examining how incumbent leaders in African countries attempt to contain societal pressures for greater democracy, the chapters explain how governments go beyond the standard tools of manipulation, such as electoral fraud and political violence, to keep democracy from unfolding in their countries. The book emphasizes two distinct strategies that governments frequently use to reinforce their hold on power, but which remain overlooked in conventional analyses; —the legal system and the international system. It—documents how governments employ the law to limit the scope of action among citizens and civil society activists struggling to expand democratic liberties, including the use of constitutional provisions and the courts. The work further demonstrates how governments use their role in international relations to neutralize pressure from external actors, including sovereigntist claims against foreign intervention and selective implementation of donor-promoted policies. While pro-democracy actors can also employ these legal and international strategies to challenge incumbents, in some cases to prevent democratic backsliding, the book shows why and how incumbents have enjoyed institutional advantages when implementing these strategies through the six country case studies of Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.


Conclusion

December 2022

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27 Reads

Why have most African countries not achieved greater political liberalization? What explains the lack of progress toward the ideals of liberal democracy across the region? This book advances ongoing debates on democratic backsliding with specific reference to Africa. In examining how incumbent leaders in African countries attempt to contain societal pressures for greater democracy, the chapters explain how governments go beyond the standard tools of manipulation, such as electoral fraud and political violence, to keep democracy from unfolding in their countries. The book emphasizes two distinct strategies that governments frequently use to reinforce their hold on power, but which remain overlooked in conventional analyses; —the legal system and the international system. It—documents how governments employ the law to limit the scope of action among citizens and civil society activists struggling to expand democratic liberties, including the use of constitutional provisions and the courts. The work further demonstrates how governments use their role in international relations to neutralize pressure from external actors, including sovereigntist claims against foreign intervention and selective implementation of donor-promoted policies. While pro-democracy actors can also employ these legal and international strategies to challenge incumbents, in some cases to prevent democratic backsliding, the book shows why and how incumbents have enjoyed institutional advantages when implementing these strategies through the six country case studies of Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.


The cash crop revolution, colonialism and economic reorganization in Africa

October 2022

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190 Reads

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19 Citations

World Development

In the 19th and 20th centuries, African economies experienced a significant structural transformation from the slave trades to commercial agriculture. We analyze the long-run impact of this economic transition focusing on the dynamic effects of: shifting geographic fundamentals to favor agro-climatic suitability for cash crops; infrastructural investments to reduce trade costs; and external forward production linkages. Using agro-climatic suitability scores and historical data on the source location of more than 95 percent of all exports across 38 African states, we assess the consequences of these changes on economic reorganization across the continent. We find that colonial cash crop production had positive long-run effects on urbanization, road infrastructure, nighttime luminosity, and household wealth. These effects rival or surpass other geographic and historical forces. Exploring causal mechanisms, we show that path dependence due to colonial infrastructure investments is the more important channel than continued advantages in agricultural productivity. However, these agglomerating effects were highly localized; we find limited evidence that commercial agriculture spurred broader regional growth, in contrast to other cash crop regions around the world. If anything, we observe in Africa the economic gains accruing to cash crop zones came at the expense of nearby areas, which are worse off today than expected based on underlying characteristics. Overall, our analysis has important implications for the debate on the long-run effects of colonialism on development in the region. Rather than offsetting negative institutional effects, subnational extractive processes may have reinforced them by sowing economic and social inequalities.


The Politics of Legislative Expansion in Africa

March 2022

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19 Reads

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10 Citations

Comparative Political Studies

The number of seats in national legislatures around the world rarely changes. Yet, in Africa, a substantial number of countries have regularly increased the size of their legislatures, and these increases have become more common in recent years. Previous research on political offices in Africa’s electoral autocracies has suggested that their numbers and increases are largely motivated by patronage and clientelist considerations. Is this also the case for national legislatures? Curiously, very little political science scholarship exists on legislature size, either in Africa or the rest of the world. Using a mixture of descriptive statistics to present a new database, as well as econometrics and three case studies, we find that legislative expansion can be linked to executive branch manipulation. Presidents have found it politically useful to expand the size of African legislatures to weaken and/or control it.


José-María Muñoz. Doing Business in Cameroon: An Anatomy of Economic Governance.

October 2020

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6 Reads

American Journal of Ophthalmology

Doing Business in Cameroon: An Anatomy of Economic Governance provides a careful ethnographic description of the business sector in Ngaoundéré, a provincial capital and the largest city of Northern Cameroon around the turn of the twenty-first century. During several long stints in the city, José-María Muñoz got to follow around a number of businessmen, and he offers a wealth of information about their training, social milieu, family relations, and general world view in addition to many of the details of their business and the daily travails of dealing with Cameroon’s incompetent and venal central state. Following a perfunctory introduction, a first chapter provides an overview of the economy of Ngaoundéré since the colonial era and introduces four Cameroonian entrepreneurs whose careers he has followed for several decades. These four reappear often in subsequent chapters. Chapter 2 discusses public procurement, which all four businessmen depend on for their livelihoods. Chapter 3 examines business practices around cattle, one of the key economic activities in the region. Chapter 4 analyzes the governance of the freight sector, a key issue for the city, as the country’s main railway line ends in Ngaoundéré. A final empirical chapter examines the NGO sector, which Muñoz revealingly treats largely as if it were just another sector of the private economy.


Citations (63)


... Even though they are not in the government, opposition parties nevertheless have the right to voice their desires and concerns about groups that may not be well-served by their more powerful counterparts. Thus, the opposition parties assert that the government's decisions undermine the people's rights (Hinfelaar et al. 2022). ...

Reference:

The Role of Oposition Parties: A Systematic Literature Review (SLR)
Legal autocratisation ahead of the 2021 Zambian elections
  • Citing Article
  • July 2023

Journal of Eastern African Studies

... With growing concerns around the world about democratic backsliding (Arriola et al., 2022;Bakke & Sitter, 2022;Kwak et al., 2020;Oleart & Theuns, 2023;Sönmez, 2020;Thompson, 2023), there is an urgent need to evaluate governance practices and challenge neoliberal governmentalities within them. Applying Foucault's thought in a way that unifies his earlier writings on power-knowledge to his later works that begin to identify the neoliberal episteme allows for systemic issues to be diagnosed and solutions to be recommended. ...

Democratic Backsliding in Africa?: Autocratization, Resilience, and Contention

... Dentro de este contexto se desarrolla lo que Ali Mazrui denominó Pan-Africanism from West Hemispheric para hacer referencia a los descendientes de esclavos africanos que iniciaron un movimiento popular como instrumento de resistencia frente a las colonias. A pesar del debate en torno a los elementos raciales e identitarios y la distinción entre diferentes corrientes, el pan-africanismo constituyó un instrumento de lucha solidaria dirigido por la élite social frente a la opresión racista y el dominio colonial (Uzoigwe, 2004). ...

Elecciones sin democracia. La gama de los regímenes de África
  • Citing Article
  • June 2004

Estudios Políticos (Medellín)

... Some scholars highlight democracy's resilience (e.g., Levitsky and Way 2015 ). Further, trends in some regions show that democracy is stagnating rather than declining, such as in Africa ( Arriola et al. 2023 ) or Latin America ( Mainwaring and Pérez-Liñán 2023 ). According to Arriola et al. (2023) , democratic pressures persist in Africa, leading incumbents to adopt new tools that have hindered but not derailed pro-democracy actors. ...

Democratic Backsliding in Africa? Autocratization, Resilience, and Contention

... The country also experienced serious democratic backsliding from 2011 to 2021, with declines in both electoral contestation and participatory rights. 18 The ruling Patriotic Front under Michael Sata (2011-14) and Edgar Lungu (2015-21) sought to consolidate executive power through institutional changes, restricting the opposition and weakening media and civil society. Sata started early in his presidency to consolidate and concentrate power by removing some of Zambia's top judges and coopting opposition MPs through cabinet appointments. ...

Zambia: Backsliding in a Presidential Regime

... Third, the cash crop revolution also tended to mostly favour the coast rather than the hinterland; the latter, due both to climatic conditions and transportation costs, became as much a labour reservoir as it did a source of agricultural exports (De Haas and Travieso 2022). Areas that participated in the cash crop boom tend today to be economically advantaged over areas that did not, suggesting long-term path dependency in the spatial distribution of income (Roessler et al. 2022). ...

The cash crop revolution, colonialism and economic reorganization in Africa
  • Citing Article
  • October 2022

World Development

... Following the established scholarship on the subject (Bratton and Van de Walle, 1994;Branch and Mampilly, 2015;Cheeseman, 2015), we believe that the overarching cause for different protest trends lies in the way that neopatrimonialism was established across different regions, and then in the long-term regional performance of democratic governance. The overarching idea is that where neopatrimonial regimes were successful in monopolizing political power, protests could only come from the most disenfranchised strata of society, left outside corruption networks. ...

Neopatrimonial Regimes and Political Transitions in Africa
  • Citing Chapter
  • February 2018

... While FISP shares similar objectives of its precursor, significant changes accompanied the transition, such as halving the input pack size to 200 kg of fertilizer and 10 kg of hybrid maize seed. The program also expanded to include a broader range of crops (Mason et al., 2017). The introduction of rice in 2010-2011 and sorghum, cotton, and groundnuts in 2012-2013 reflected the government's commitment to promoting crop diversification. ...

The Political Economy of Fertilizer Subsidy Programs in Africa: Evidence from Zambia

American Journal of Agricultural Economics

... one of the outcomes of increased interparty competition was the defeat, through competitive elections, of nine presidents who were in power at the beginning of 1990, immediately after africa adopted/reintroduced liberal democracy. some of the defeated incumbents included hastings Banda in Malawi, Pierre Buyoya in Burundi, Kenneth Kaunda in Zambia, and Mathieu Kérékou in Benin (Bleck & van de Walle, 2018). seven other countries experienced significant regime change, even though the incumbents were not defeated (Bleck & van de Walle, 2018) some of these include namibia, são tomé, and Mali. ...

2 - The Evolution of Electoral Competition, 1990–2015
  • Citing Chapter
  • November 2018