Nia Roberts’s research while affiliated with University of Oxford and other places

Background Socioeconomic position (SEP) is among the most important determinants of variations in health outcomes. This systematic review aimed to summarise the association between socioeconomic disadvantage and the risk of severe maternal morbidity (SMM) and maternal mortality (MM) across high-income countries. Methods A comprehensive search was conducted in the MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and PsycInfo databases and Google Scholar from January 2000 to June 2023. Peer-reviewed papers from observational studies conducted in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries were included. Meta-analyses of comparable studies, a narrative summary and a harvest plot were undertaken.The risk of bias was assessed using a modified Newcastle-Ottawa tool. Results The final review included 52 papers. In the meta-analyses, compared with the least amount of neighbourhood deprivation, neighbourhood income, neighbourhood poverty and years of education, the ORs for SMM in the highest group were 1.45 (95% CI 1.13 to 1.85), 1.48 (95% CI 1.34 to 1.63), 1.61 (95% CI 0.97 to 2.66) and 1.29 (95% CI 1.22 to 1.37), respectively. Similarly, the ORs for MM among least versus highest amount of neighbourhood deprivation, unemployed versus employed, lower versus higher occupational group and years of education were 2.10 (95% CI 1.57 to 2.81), 1.86 (95% CI 0.95 to 3.66), 1.61 (95% CI 1.03 to 2.51) and 1.90 (95% CI 1.29 to 2.79), respectively. Discussion In high-income countries across the different measures of SEP, socioeconomic disadvantage is associated with increased risk for SMM and MM. There is a need for interventions across multiple societal levels that will be effective in reducing these inequitable outcomes. PROSPERO registration number CRD42023399267.

Introduction To perform a systematic review of the diagnostic accuracy of point-of-care lung ultrasound, compared to chest radiography, in children and young people (0–21 years) who present to ambulatory settings with suspected community-acquired pneumonia. Methods Registration: Prospero June 2021 CRD42021260552. Electronic searching performed on Medline, Embase, CINAHL and Science Citation Index from inception to 20 June 2023. Two researchers independently screened titles, abstracts, and full texts for study selection. Risk of bias was assessed using the Quality Assessment Tool for Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) tool. Meta-analysis of included studies. Results The six studies included in this systematic review described point-of-care lung ultrasound performed primarily by paediatric emergency medicine clinicians on a total of 1099 paediatric patients, with a reference standard of chest radiography or chest radiography with clinical findings. The majority of included studies lacked clarity on training for the index test with potential bias around flow and timing of testing. Meta-analysis of the combined results of the included six studies calculated a pooled sensitivity of 90.9% (95% CI [85.5%, 94.4%]) and pooled specificity of 80.7% (95% CI [63.6%, 91.0%]). Conclusions Point-of-care lung ultrasound has high sensitivity but lower specificity to diagnose acute pneumonia in children. Further research is needed which overcomes issues around training in point-of-care lung ultrasound, study design and reliability of the reference test (chest radiography) to better evidence the role of point-of-care lung ultrasound in diagnosing pneumonia in children in ambulatory and resource-limited settings.

Objectives To review the evidence on healthcare professionals’ (HCPs) and patients’ views of the use of point-of-care tests (POCTs) in the management of acute respiratory tract infections (RTIs) in primary care settings. Methods We conducted a systematic review of studies up to 28 April 2023. We included studies that included qualitative methods and results; focused on HCPs’ and/or patients’ views/experiences of POCTs for acute RTIs; and were conducted in primary care settings. We conducted a thematic synthesis to identify how their views on POCTs and interventions can support test use (PROSPERO registration: CRD42019150347). Results We included 33 studies, developing 9 categories each for HCP and patient data. We identified 38 factors affecting POCT use: 28 from HCPs and 10 from patients. Factors exist outside and within consultations, and post-consultations, illustrating that some cannot be addressed by HCPs alone. Fourteen interventions were identified that could address factors and support POCT use, with 7 interventions appearing to address the most factors. Some interventions were beyond the scope of HCPs and patients and needed to be addressed at system and organizational levels. Both groups had mixed views on the use of POCTs and highlighted implementation challenges. Discussion This review highlights numerous factors affecting POCT use in primary care. Policy-makers planning to implement POCTs are likely to achieve more by providing multi-faceted interventions that target factors outside, within, and post-consultation. Some interventions may need to be already established before POCT introduction. Whilst evidence beyond general practice is limited, similar factors suggest that similar context-tailored interventions would be appropriate.

Background International Medical Graduates (IMG) are an essential part of the international physician workforce, and exploring the predictors of success and failure for IMGs could help inform international and national physician labour workforce selection and planning. The objective of this study was to explore predictors for success for selection of IMGs into high stakes postgraduate training positions and practice and not necessarily for informing IMGs. Methods We searched 11 databases, including Medline, Embase and LILACS, from inception to February 2022 for studies that explored the predictors of success and failure in IMGs. We reported baseline probability, effect size in relative risk (RR), odds ratio (OR) or hazard ratio (HR) and absolute probability change for success and failure across six groups of outcomes, including success in qualifying exams, or certificate exams, successful matching into residency, retention in practice, disciplinary actions, and outcomes of IMG clinical practice. Results Twenty-five studies (375,549 participants) reported the association of 93 predictors of success and failure for IMGs. Female sex, English fluency, graduation recency, higher scores in USMLE step 2 and participation in a skill assessment program were associated with success in qualifying exams. Female sex, English fluency, previous internship and results of qualifying exams were associated with success in certification exams. Retention to work in Canada was associated with several factors, including male sex, graduating within the past five years, and completing residency over fellowships. In the UK, IMGs and candidates who attempted PLAB part 1, ≥ 4 times vs. first attempters, and candidates who attempted PLAB part 2, ≥ 3 times vs. first attempters were more likely to be censured in future practice. Patients treated by IMGs had significantly lower mortalities than those treated by US graduates, and patients of IMGs had lower mortalities [OR: 0.82 (95% CI: 0.62, 0.99)] than patients of US citizens who trained abroad. Conclusions This study informed factors associated with the success and failure of IMGs and is the first systematic review on this topic, which can inform IMG selection and future studies. Systematic review registration PROSPERO: CRD42021252678.

Background Care home residents are at high risk from outbreaks of respiratory infections, such as influenza and COVID-19. We conducted a systematic review of randomized controlled trials, to determine which interventions (apart from vaccines) are effective at reducing transmission of acute respiratory illnesses (ARIs) in care homes. Methods We searched CINAHL, Medline, Embase and Cochrane for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of interventions to prevent transmission of ARIs in care homes (excluding vaccines), to April 2023. Results A total of 21 articles met inclusion criteria. Two infection control interventions significantly reduced respiratory infections. Oseltamivir significantly reduced risk of symptomatic laboratory-confirmed influenza (OR 0.39, 95%CI 0.16–0.94, three trials), and influenza-like illness (OR 0.50, 95%CI 0.36–0.69), even in a vaccinated population. High dose vitamin D supplementation reduced incidence of ARIs (incidence rate ratio 0.60; 95%CI 0.38–0.94, one trial). Nine other RCTs of vitamin, mineral, probiotic and herbal supplements showed no significant effect. Conclusion Transmission of respiratory infections in care homes can be reduced by educational interventions to improve infection control procedures and compliance by staff, by antiviral prophylaxis soon after a case of influenza has been detected, and by supplementation with high-dose Vitamin D3. Further research is needed to confirm the effect of high-dose Vitamin D3.

Background Health economic assessments are used to determine whether the resources needed to generate net benefit from an antenatal or newborn screening programme, driven by multiple benefits and harms, are justifiable. It is not known what benefits and harms have been adopted by economic evaluations assessing these programmes and whether they omit benefits and harms considered important to relevant stakeholders. Objectives (1) To identify the benefits and harms adopted by health economic assessments in this area, and to assess how they have been measured and valued; (2) to identify attributes or relevance to stakeholders that ought to be considered in future economic assessments; and (3) to make recommendations about the benefits and harms that should be considered by these studies. Design Mixed methods combining systematic review and qualitative work. Systematic review methods We searched the published and grey literature from January 2000 to January 2021 using all major electronic databases. Economic evaluations of an antenatal or newborn screening programme in one or more Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries were considered eligible. Reporting quality was assessed using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards checklist. We identified benefits and harms using an integrative descriptive analysis and constructed a thematic framework. Qualitative methods We conducted a meta-ethnography of the existing literature on newborn screening experiences, a secondary analysis of existing individual interviews related to antenatal or newborn screening or living with screened-for conditions, and a thematic analysis of primary data collected with stakeholders about their experiences with screening. Results The literature searches identified 52,244 articles and reports, and 336 unique studies were included. Thematic framework resulted in seven themes: (1) diagnosis of screened for condition, (2) life-years and health status adjustments, (3) treatment, (4) long-term costs, (5) overdiagnosis, (6) pregnancy loss and (7) spillover effects on family members. Diagnosis of screened-for condition (115, 47.5%), life-years and health status adjustments (90, 37.2%) and treatment (88, 36.4%) accounted for most of the benefits and harms evaluating antenatal screening. The same themes accounted for most of the benefits and harms included in studies assessing newborn screening. Long-term costs, overdiagnosis and spillover effects tended to be ignored. The wide-reaching family implications of screening were considered important to stakeholders. We observed good overlap between the thematic framework and the qualitative evidence. Limitations Dual data extraction within the systematic literature review was not feasible due to the large number of studies included. It was difficult to recruit healthcare professionals in the stakeholder’s interviews. Conclusions There is no consistency in the selection of benefits and harms used in health economic assessments in this area, suggesting that additional methods guidance is needed. Our proposed thematic framework can be used to guide the development of future health economic assessments evaluating antenatal and newborn screening programmes. Study registration This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42020165236. Funding This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: NIHR127489) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment ; Vol. 28, No. 25. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Background: Periportal fibrosis (PPF) is a severe morbidity caused by both current and past exposure to intestinal schistosomes. We assessed the association between current/active infection status and intensity of Schistosoma mansoni, S. japonicum, or S. mekongi with PPF. Methods: We systematically searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Embase, Global Health, Global Index Medicus and Medline on August 24, 2022. A meta-analysis to derive pooled effect sizes for concurrently measured current schistosome infection status and intensity against author-defined PPF was conducted using inverse-variance weighted random effects. Subgroup analyses by study characteristics and risk of bias assessments using a modified National Institute of Health Risk of Bias Tool were completed. The protocol was prospectively registered on PROSPERO (CRD42022333919). Findings: We identified 2646 records; 37 studies were included in the systematic review and 30 studies in the meta-analysis. S. mansoni was most studied (91.89%; 34/37). PPF was heterogeneously defined with the Niamey ultrasound protocol commonly used for diagnosis. Individuals with any current infection were 2.50 (95% CI:1.71-3.66) times more likely to have PPF compared to uninfected individuals with high heterogeneity (I2 statistic 94.80%). Subgroup analyses showed there was no association when only ultrasound patterns or modified Niamey Protocols were used. There was no association in studies conducted in sub-Saharan Africa after 2002 when mass drug administration became widespread, or in studies with a low risk of bias. No significant association was found between schistosome infection intensity and PPF. Interpretation: World Health Organization guidelines use current schistosome infection intensity as a proxy for schistosomiasis-related morbidity. This study supports that only current infection status was tenuously associated with PPF. Guidelines are needed to better monitor schistosomiasis-related morbidities. Funding: NDPH Pump Priming Fund, Wellcome Trust-ISSF (204826/Z/16/Z), John Fell Fund, Robertson Foundation, and UKRI EPSRC (EP/X021793/1).

Background Chest pain is responsible for millions of visits to the emergency department (ED) annually. Cardiac ultrasound can detect ischemic changes, but varying accuracy estimates have been reported in previous studies. We synthetized the available evidence to yield more precise estimates of the accuracy of cardiac ultrasound for acute myocardial ischemia in patients with chest pain in the ED and to assess the effect of different clinical characteristics on test accuracy. Methods A systematic search for studies assessing the diagnostic accuracy of cardiac ultrasound for myocardial ischemia in the ED was conducted in MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL, CINAHL, LILACS, Web of Science, two trial registries and supplementary methods, from inception to December 6th, 2022. Prospective cohort, cross-sectional, case–control studies and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that included data on diagnostic accuracy were included. Risk of bias was assessed with the QUADAS-2 tool and a bivariate hierarchical model was used for meta-analysis with paired Forest and SROC plots used to present the results. Subgroup analyses was conducted on clinically relevant factors. Results Twenty-nine studies were included, with 5043 patients. The overall summary sensitivity was 79.3% (95%CI 69.0–86.8%) and specificity was 87.3% (95%CI 79.9–92.2%), with substantial heterogeneity. Subgroup analyses showed increased sensitivity in studies where ultrasound was conducted at ED admission and increased specificity in studies that excluded patients with previous heart disease, when the target condition was acute coronary syndrome, or when final chart review was used as the reference standard. There was very low certainty in the results based on serious risk of bias and indirectness in most studies. Conclusions Cardiac ultrasound may have a potential role in the diagnostic pathway of myocardial ischemia in the ED; however, a pooled accuracy must be interpreted cautiously given substantial heterogeneity and that important patient and test characteristics affect its diagnostic performance. Protocol Registration : PROSPERO (CRD42023392058).

Background Knowledge of gestational age (GA) is key in clinical management of individual obstetric patients, and critical to be able to calculate rates of preterm birth and small for GA at a population level. Currently, the gold standard for pregnancy dating is measurement of the fetal crown rump length at 11–14 weeks of gestation. However, this is not possible for women first presenting in later pregnancy, or in settings where routine ultrasound is not available. A reliable, cheap and easy to measure GA-dependent biomarker would provide an important breakthrough in estimating the age of pregnancy. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of prenatal and postnatal biomarkers for estimating gestational age (GA). Methods Systematic review prospectively registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020167727) and reported in accordance with the PRISMA-DTA. Medline, Embase, CINAHL, LILACS, and other databases were searched from inception until September 2023 for cohort or cross-sectional studies that reported on the accuracy of prenatal and postnatal biomarkers for estimating GA. In addition, we searched Google Scholar and screened proceedings of relevant conferences and reference lists of identified studies and relevant reviews. There were no language or date restrictions. Pooled coefficients of correlation and root mean square error (RMSE, average deviation in weeks between the GA estimated by the biomarker and that estimated by the gold standard method) were calculated. The risk of bias in each included study was also assessed. Findings Thirty-nine studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria: 20 studies (2,050 women) assessed prenatal biomarkers (placental hormones, metabolomic profiles, proteomics, cell-free RNA transcripts, and exon-level gene expression), and 19 (1,738,652 newborns) assessed postnatal biomarkers (metabolomic profiles, DNA methylation profiles, and fetal haematological components). Among the prenatal biomarkers assessed, human chorionic gonadotrophin measured in maternal serum between 4 and 9 weeks of gestation showed the highest correlation with the reference standard GA, with a pooled coefficient of correlation of 0.88. Among the postnatal biomarkers assessed, metabolomic profiling from newborn blood spots provided the most accurate estimate of GA, with a pooled RMSE of 1.03 weeks across all GAs. It performed best for term infants with a slightly reduced accuracy for preterm or small for GA infants. The pooled RMSEs for metabolomic profiling and DNA methylation profile from cord blood samples were 1.57 and 1.60 weeks, respectively. Interpretation We identified no antenatal biomarkers that accurately predict GA over a wide window of pregnancy. Postnatally, metabolomic profiling from newborn blood spot provides an accurate estimate of GA, however, as this is known only after birth it is not useful to guide antenatal care. Further prenatal studies are needed to identify biomarkers that can be used in isolation, as part of a biomarker panel, or in combination with other clinical methods to narrow prediction intervals of GA estimation. Funding The research was funded by the 10.13039/100000865Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-000368). ATP is supported by the Oxford Partnership Comprehensive Biomedical Research Centre with funding from the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre funding scheme. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the UK National Health Service, the NIHR, the Department of Health, or the Department of Biotechnology. The funders of this study had no role in study design, data collection, analysis or interpretation of the data, in writing the paper or the decision to submit for publication.