Nataliia Kolesnichenko’s research while affiliated with Ukrainian Academy of Banking of the National Bank of Ukraine and other places

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Publications (1)


Figure 2. Weights (coefficients) of questions А1-A13 in the composition of the first three principle components
Figure 2. Weights (coeffi cients) of ques� ons А1-A13 in the composi� on of the  rst three principle components
Figure 3. РС1 and Real GDP Growth (y-o-y), %
Figure 7. BEI, PC1, and Real GDP Growth (q-o-q, SA), %
Coefficients values in the principle components structure

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Nowcasting of Economic Development Indicators Using the NBU’s Business Survey Results
  • Article
  • Full-text available

March 2016

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13 Reads

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2 Citations

Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine

Roman Lysenko

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Nataliia Kolesnichenko

The article was devoted to the research of possibilities to use Business Outlook Survey results, which are carried out by National Bank of Ukraine, for the short-term forecasting of economic development, in particular, the Gross Domestic Product of Ukraine. The different methods of building of the leading index of economic development, their advantages, and their restrictions are examined. The choice of the best index, which provides for the higher accuracy of forecasting the GDP, is carried out with the use of econometric models.

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Citations (1)


... There is a large group of authors that have analyzed leading indicators as tools for predicting economic tendencies in the future, especially during recession periods Cesaroni and Iezzi (2015), Döpke (1999), Dovern and Ziegler (2008), Döpke (1998), Oh and Waldman (2005), Lysenko and Kolesnichenko (2016), Lehmann (2020), Drechsel and Scheufele (2010), Kibritcioglu et al. (1999), Alleyne et al. (2013), Frale et al. (2009), Ferrara and Marsilli (2012), Etter and Graff (2003), Drechsel and Scheufele (2011), Dovern (2006), Garnitz et al. (2019), Buckman et al. (2020), Baker et al. (2020), Aguilar et al. (2020), Fritsche and Kouzine (2002), Ampudia et al. (2020), Juriova (2015), and Kitrar and Lipkind (2020); or used leading indicators for financial stability issues, especially for financial monitoring purposes (Bhattacharyay 2003). At the same time, other authors have focused on the problematic and main drivers that influence and have the most significant impact on leading indicators (Hüfner and Lahl 2003); or analyzed the main idea and construction of leading indicators Everhart and Duval-Hernández (2000), Elosegui et al. (2008), Bierbaumer-Polly (2010), Kellstedt et al. (2015), Martha Starr (2008), and Martinakova and Kapounek (2013). ...

Reference:

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Consumer and Business Confidence Indicators
Nowcasting of Economic Development Indicators Using the NBU’s Business Survey Results

Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine