Naomi Oreskes’s research while affiliated with Harvard University and other places

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Figure 1. Unusual climate anomalies in 2023 and 2024. Ocean temperatures (a, b) are presently far outside their historical ranges. These anomalies reflect the combined effect of long-term climate change and short-term variability. Sources and additional details about each variable are provided in supplemental file S1. Each line corresponds to a different year, with darker gray representing later years. All of the variables shown are daily estimates.
Figure 2. Timeseries of climate-related human activities. The data obtained since the publication of Ripple and colleagues (2023a) are shown in red (dark gray in black and white). In panel (f), tree cover loss does not account for forest gain and includes loss due to any cause. For panel (h), hydroelectricity and nuclear energy are shown in supplemental figure S3. Sources and additional details about each variable are provided in supplemental file S1.
Figure 3. Timeseries of climate-related responses. The data obtained before and after the publication of Ripple and colleagues (2023a) are shown in gray and red (dark gray in black and white), respectively. For area burned (m) and billion-dollar flood frequency (o) in the United States, the black horizontal lines show changepoint model estimates, which allow for abrupt shifts (see the supplement). For other variables with relatively high variability, local regression trendlines are shown in black. The variables were measured at various frequencies (e.g., annual, monthly, weekly). The labels on the x-axis correspond to midpoints of years. Billion-dollar flood frequency (o) is influenced by exposure and vulnerability in addition to climate change. Sources and additional details about each variable are provided in supplemental file S1.
Figure 4. Photograph series depicting the impacts of climate-related disasters. First row (left to right): Rescue of people stranded by floods in the city of Canoas, Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil, 2024; Duda Fortes, Agência RBS), “Drought in Ethiopia due to rains unrealised” (Ethiopia, 2011; Oxfam East Africa; CC BY 2.0). Second row: Firefighters contain a bushfire burning around the town of Aberdare (Australia, 2013; Quarrie Photography, Jeff Walsh, Cass Hodge; CC BY-NC-ND 2.0), The aftermath of Hurricane Matthew (Haiti, 2016; UN Photo/Logan Abassi; CC BY-NC-ND 2.0). Third row: Inspection of a storm-damaged roadway in California (United States, 2023; Andrew Avitt/USDA Forest Service), Remnants of a house on Leyte island that was destroyed by Typhoon Haiyan (The Philippines, 2013; Trocaire/Wikimedia; CC BY 2.0). All quotes are from the Climate Visuals project (https://climatevisuals.org). See supplemental file S1 for details and more pictures.
Figure 5. Climate change spotlight topics. Already, many serious climate impacts are occurring, including coral bleaching (a) and permafrost thaw contributing to orange rivers with reduced fish abundance and drinking water quality (b). Recent years have seen a dramatic increase in the number of scientific publications related to solar radiation modification (c). A survey of hundreds of IPCC senior authors and review editors indicates that the majority expect catastrophic warming of at least 2.5 degrees Celsius this century (d). Extreme heat is expected to disproportionately affect people in less wealthy countries that have lower emissions (e). Climate change could eventually contribute to societal collapse—a possibility that is increasingly being considered by researchers (f). See supplemental file S1 for data sources and details. Photographs: (a) Acropora/Wikimedia Commons, (b) Ken Hill/National Park Service.
The 2024 state of the climate report: Perilous times on planet Earth
  • Article
  • Full-text available

October 2024

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2,314 Reads

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28 Citations

BioScience

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Jillian W Gregg

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Thomas W Crowther

Our aim in the present article is to communicate directly to researchers, policymakers, and the public. As scientists and academics, we feel it is our moral duty and that of our institutions to alert humanity to the growing threats that we face as clearly as possible and to show leadership in addressing them. In this report, we analyze the latest trends in a wide array of planetary vital signs. We also review notable recent climate-related disasters, spotlight important climate-related topics, and discuss needed policy interventions. This report is part of our series of concise annual updates on the state of the climate.

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Fig. 2. In 2023, astonishing new records were set in 2 m surface temperature, sea surface temperature (SST), and global sea ice extent (2 m Temperature World, and SST World after Climate Reanalyzer, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, https://climatereanalyzer.org/; Global Sea Ice Extent after https://zacklabe.com/global-sea-ice-extent-conc/).
Fig. 4. Global GHG emissions and temperature rise. Net emissions including removals (billion metric tons of CO 2 -equivalent). Policy and technological progress over the past 8 years has significantly reduced the global temperature outlook. Models now project very likely temperature increases of 2.0 to 4.0°C by century's end, with a 2.3 to 3.4°C likely range and a mean of 2.8°C. While this is progress from just 8 years ago, it still represents a dire climate future-falling significantly short of the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C (204).
Fig. 5. The historical context of imperialism, population growth, and an extractive relationship with nature has led to a series of modern outcomes that put our planet at risk: disease, climate change, biodiversity loss, socioeconomic inequality, and pollution. These risk the stability of human communities. Humanity may achieve a just and sustainable future through global investment in rapid decarbonization, correcting market distortions favoring fossil fuels, avoiding "net zero" as an excuse to continue GHG emissions, proper monitoring and validation of carbon offsets, revising the basis for decision-making under the UNFCCC, decoupling economic activity from net resource depletion, shifting to Earth-centered governance, sustainable/ regenerative practices in all areas of natural resource economics, eliminating environmentally harmful subsidies, restrict trade that promotes pollution and unsustainable consumption, accelerate human development in all SDG sectors, promote gender justice by supporting women's and girls' education and rights which reduces fertility rates and raises the standard of living, and for low-and middle-income nations: relieve debt, provide low-cost loans, finance loss and damage, fund clean-energy acceleration, arrest the dangerous loss of biodiversity, and restore natural ecosystems.
Earth at risk: An urgent call to end the age of destruction and forge a just and sustainable future

April 2024

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442 Reads

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43 Citations

PNAS Nexus

Human development has ushered in an era of converging crises: climate change, ecological destruction, disease, pollution, and socioeconomic inequality. This review synthesizes the breadth of these interwoven emergencies and underscores the urgent need for comprehensive, integrated action. Propelled by imperialism, extractive capitalism, and a surging population, we are speeding past Earth's material limits, destroying critical ecosystems, and triggering irreversible changes in biophysical systems that underpin the Holocene climatic stability which fostered human civilization. The consequences of these actions are disproportionately borne by vulnerable populations, further entrenching global inequities. Marine and terrestrial biomes face critical tipping points, while escalating challenges to food and water access foreshadow a bleak outlook for global security. Against this backdrop of Earth at risk, we call for a global response centered on urgent decarbonization, fostering reciprocity with nature, and implementing regenerative practices in natural resource management. We call for the elimination of detrimental subsidies, promotion of equitable human development, and transformative financial support for lower income nations. A critical paradigm shift must occur that replaces exploitative, wealth-oriented capitalism with an economic model that prioritizes sustainability, resilience, and justice. We advocate a global cultural shift that elevates kinship with nature and communal well-being, underpinned by the recognition of Earth’s finite resources and the interconnectedness of its inhabitants. The imperative is clear: to navigate away from this precipice, we must collectively harness political will, economic resources, and societal values to steer toward a future where human progress does not come at the cost of ecological integrity and social equity.

Citations (2)


... In the current times of worsening climate change, more extreme environmental events, and increasing biodiversity loss, among other ecological challenges, humanity needs as many people as possible to understand and use ecological science, especially regarding its applications to environmental management and policy development (Ripple et al. 2024). Ensuring that future societies and workforces are better positioned to address social-ecological challenges, particularly those related to environmental injustices and inequalities, should be a central goal for ecology education (Johnson and Mappin 2005, Lewinsohn et al. 2015, Martusewicz et al. 2020, Kellogg 2023. ...

Reference:

Diversifying Ecology Education for Everyone Through More Inclusive, Interdisciplinary, and Accessible Teaching
The 2024 state of the climate report: Perilous times on planet Earth

BioScience

... Rapid population growth, increasing urbanisation, and unsustainable development are placing immense stress on global ecosystems, endangering the Earth [1]. This population growth leads to a significant strain on natural resources, with over 13 million hectares of forest lost annually to various land uses, including agriculture and urban expansion [2]. ...

Earth at risk: An urgent call to end the age of destruction and forge a just and sustainable future

PNAS Nexus