N. Lugaz’s research while affiliated with University of New Hampshire and other places

Forecasting the geomagnetic effects of solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is currently an unsolved problem. CMEs, responsible for the largest values of the north‐south component of the interplanetary magnetic field, are the key driver of intense and extreme geomagnetic activity. Observations of southward interplanetary magnetic fields are currently only accessible directly through in situ measurements by spacecraft in the solar wind. On 10–12 May 2024, the strongest geomagnetic storm since 2003 took place, caused by five interacting CMEs. We clarify the relationship between the CMEs, their solar source regions, and the resulting signatures at the Sun–Earth L1 point observed by the ACE spacecraft at 1.00 AU. The STEREO‐A spacecraft was situated at 0.956 AU and 12.6° ${}^{\circ}$ west of Earth during the event, serving as a fortuitous sub‐L1 monitor providing interplanetary magnetic field measurements of the solar wind. We demonstrate an extension of the prediction lead time, as the shock was observed 2.57 hr earlier at STEREO‐A than at L1, consistent with the measured shock speed at L1, 710 kms−1 $\,{\mathrm{s}}^{-1}$, and the radial distance of 0.043 AU. By deriving the geomagnetic indices based on the STEREO‐A beacon data, we show that the strength of the geomagnetic storm would have been decently forecasted, with the modeled minimum SYM‐H=−478.5 $\,=-\,478.5$ nT, underestimating the observed minimum by only 8%. Our study sets an unprecedented benchmark for future mission design using upstream monitoring for space weather prediction.

In situ measurements of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) when they pass over an interplanetary probe are one of the main ways we directly measure their properties. However, such in situ profiles are subject to several observational constraints that are still poorly understood. This work aims at quantifying one of them, namely, the aging effect, using a CME simulated with a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamical code. The synthetic in situ profile and the instantaneous profile of the magnetic field strength differ more from each other when taken close to the Sun than far from it. Moreover, out of three properties we compute in this study (i.e., size, distortion parameter, and expansion speed), only the expansion speed shows a dependence of the aging as a function of distance. It is also the property that is the most impacted by the aging effect as it can amount to more than 100 km s ⁻¹ for CMEs observed closer than 0.15 au. This work calls for caution when deducing the expansion speed from CME profiles when they still are that close to the Sun since the aging effect can significantly impact the derived properties.

Simultaneous in situ measurements of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), including both plasma and magnetic field, by two spacecraft in radial alignment have been extremely rare. Here, we report on one such CME measured by Solar Orbiter (SolO) and Wind on 2021 November 3–5, while the spacecraft were radially separated by a heliocentric distance of 0.13 au and angularly by only 2.2°. We focus on the magnetic cloud (MC) part of the CME. We find notable changes in the R and N magnetic field components and in the speed profiles inside the MC between SolO and Wind. We observe a greater speed at the spacecraft farther away from the Sun without any clear compression signatures. Since the spacecraft are close to each other and computing fast magnetosonic wave speed inside the MC, we rule out temporal evolution as the reason for the observed differences, suggesting that spatial variations over 2.2° of the MC structure are at the heart of the observed discrepancies. Moreover, using shock properties at SolO, we forecast an arrival time 2 hr 30 minutes too late for a shock that is just 5 hr 31 minutes away from Wind. Predicting the north–south component of the magnetic field at Wind from SolO measurements leads to a relative error of 55%. These results show that even angular separations as low as 2.2° (or 0.03 au in arc length) between spacecraft can have a large impact on the observed CME properties, which raises the issue of the resolutions of current CME models, potentially affecting our forecasting capabilities.

Context. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are large-scale structures of magnetized plasma that erupt from the corona into interplanetary space. The launch of Solar Orbiter (SolO) in 2020 enables in situ measurements of CMEs in the innermost heliosphere, at such distances where CMEs can be observed remotely within the inner field of view of heliospheric imagers (HIs). It thus provides the opportunity for investigations into the correspondence of the CME substructures measured in situ and observed remotely. We studied a CME that started on 2022 March 10 and was measured in situ by SolO at ∼0.44 au. Aims. Combining remote observations of CMEs from wide-angle imagers and in situ measurements in the innermost heliosphere allows us to compare CME properties derived through both techniques, validate the estimates, and better understand CME evolution, specifically the size and radial expansion, within 0.5 au. Methods. We compared the evolution of different CME substructures observed in images from the HIs on board the Ahead Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO-A) and the CME signatures measured in situ by SolO. The CME is found to possess a density enhancement at its rear edge in both remote and in situ observations, which validates the use of the signature of density enhancement following the CMEs to accurately identify the CME rear edge. We also estimated and compared the radial size and radial expansion speed of different substructures in both observations. Results. The evolution of the CME front and rear edges in remote images is consistent with the in situ CME measurements. The radial expansion (i.e., radial size and radial expansion speed) of the whole CME structure consisting of the magnetic ejecta and the sheath is consistent with the in situ estimates obtained at the same time from SolO. However, we do not find such consistencies for the magnetic ejecta region inside the CME because it is difficult to identify the magnetic ejecta edges in the remote images.

In situ measurements from spacecraft typically provide a time series at a single location through coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and they have been one of the main methods to investigate CMEs. The CME properties derived from these in situ measurements are affected by temporal changes that occur as the CME passes over the spacecraft, such as radial expansion and aging, as well as spatial variations within a CME. This study uses multispacecraft measurements of the same CME at close separations to investigate both the spatial variability (how different a CME profile is when probed by two spacecraft close to each other) and the so-called aging effect (the effect of the time evolution on in situ properties). We compile a database of 19 events from the past 4 decades measured by two spacecraft with a radial separation of <0.2 au and an angular separation of <10°. We find that the average magnetic field strength measured by the two spacecraft differs by 18% of the typical average value, which highlights nonnegligible spatial or temporal variations. For one particular event, measurements taken by the two spacecraft allow us to quantify and significantly reduce the aging effect to estimate the asymmetry of the magnetic field strength profile. This study reveals that single-spacecraft time series near 1 au can be strongly affected by aging and that correcting for self-similar expansion does not capture the whole aging effect.

On 2020 April 19–20, a solar ejection was seen by spacecraft in a radial alignment that included Solar Orbiter and Wind. The ejection contained a magnetic flux rope where magnetic field and plasma parameters were well correlated between spacecraft. This structure is called an “unperturbed magnetic flux rope” (UMFR). Ahead of the UMFR is a portion of the ejection (not sheath) that is referred to as “upstream” (US). We focus on the US and inquire why the correlation is so much weaker there. Specifically, we analyze data collected by Solar Orbiter at 0.81 au and Wind at L1. We show that a plausible cause for the lack of coherence in the US is a combination of front erosion and internal reconnection occurring there. Front erosion is inferred from an analysis of azimuthal magnetic flux balance in the UMFR. In the present case, we contend that the US, rather than the UMFR, is the source of the eroded field lines. The presence of erosion is supported further by a direct comparison of the magnetic field data at both spacecraft that shows, in particular, a massive shrinkage of the front portion of the US. Internal reconnection is also happening at thin current sheets inside the US. Strong nonradial flows are reconfiguring the structure. As a result of these reconnection processes, a whole section of the US is disrupted and field lines move down the flanks of the ejection and out of view of Wind.

Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) originate from the eruption of complex magnetic structures occurring in our star's atmosphere. Determining the general properties of ICMEs and the physical processes at the heart of their interactions with the solar wind is a hard task, in particular using only unidimensional in situ profiles. Thus, these phenomena are still not well understood. In this study we simulate the propagation of a set of flux ropes in order to understand some of the physical processes occurring during the propagation of an ICME such as their growth or their rotation. We present simulations of the propagation of a set of flux ropes in a simplified solar wind. We consider different magnetic field strengths and sizes at the initiation of the eruption, and characterize their influence on the properties of the flux ropes during their propagation. We use the 3D MHD module of the PLUTO code on an Adaptive Mesh Refinement grid. The evolution of the magnetic field of the flux rope during the propagation matches evolution law deduced from in situ observations. We also simulate in situ profiles that spacecraft would have measured at the Earth, and we compare with the results of statistical studies. We find a good match between simulated in situ profiles and typical profiles obtained in these studies. During their propagation, flux ropes interact with the magnetic field of the wind but still show realistic signatures of ICMEs when analyzed with synthetic satellite crossings. We also show that flux ropes with different shapes and orientations can lead to similar unidimensional crossings. This warrants some care when extracting magnetic topology of ICMEs using unidimensional crossings.

The aim of this white paper is to briefly summarize some of the outstanding gaps in the observations and modeling of stellar flares, CMEs, and exoplanetary space weather, and to discuss how the theoretical and computational tools and methods that have been developed in heliophysics can play a critical role in meeting these challenges. The maturity of data-inspired and data-constrained modeling of the Sun-to-Earth space weather chain provides a natural starting point for the development of new, multidisciplinary research and applications to other stars and their exoplanetary systems. Here we present recommendations for future solar CME research to further advance stellar flare and CME studies. These recommendations will require institutional and funding agency support for both fundamental research (e.g. theoretical considerations and idealized eruptive flare/CME numerical modeling) and applied research (e.g. data inspired/constrained modeling and estimating exoplanetary space weather impacts). In short, we recommend continued and expanded support for: (1.) Theoretical and numerical studies of CME initiation and low coronal evolution, including confinement of "failed" eruptions; (2.) Systematic analyses of Sun-as-a-star observations to develop and improve stellar CME detection techniques and alternatives; (3.) Improvements in data-inspired and data-constrained MHD modeling of solar CMEs and their application to stellar systems; and (4.) Encouraging comprehensive solar--stellar research collaborations and conferences through new interdisciplinary and multi-agency/division funding mechanisms.

An analytical model for diffusive shock acceleration (DSA) at one-dimensional stationary planar shocks in the lower corona is presented. The model introduces an upstream escape boundary through which a constant flux of protons streaming upstream out of the system is allowed. The nonvanishing flux of streaming protons out of the system limits the maximum attainable energy of DSA and produces a rollover in the high-energy spectra of the shock-accelerated protons. The condition for the rollover energy derived from the model can account for the approximately linear relation between the natural logarithm of event-integrated fluences and the natural logarithm of rollover energies as demonstrated in Bruno et al. Solar energetic particle (SEP) events with higher integrated fluences in principle exhibit higher rollover energies since proton-excited hydromagnetic waves in the turbulent sheath reduce the proton diffusion coefficient and throttle the upstream streaming of protons. The consistency between the observation and the theory of DSA at shocks in the lower corona serves as evidence for the shock origin of protons of the highest energies in large SEP events.