# Myles R. Allen's research while affiliated with University of Oxford and other places

## Publications (225)

Preprint
Extreme weather attribution, quantifying the role of human influence in specific weather events, is of interest to scientists, adaptation planners and the general public. However, the devastating 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave challenged conventional statistical approaches to attribution due to the absence of similar events in the historical recor...
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Meeting the Paris Agreement temperature goal necessitates limiting methane (CH 4 )-induced warming, in addition to achieving net-zero or (net-negative) carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. In our model, for the median 1.5°C scenario between 2020 and 2050, CH 4 mitigation lowers temperatures by 0.1°C; CO 2 increases it by 0.2°C. CO 2 emissions continue...
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The concept of net-zero carbon emissions has emerged from physical climate science. However, it is operationalized through social, political and economic systems. We identify seven attributes of net zero, which are important to make it a successful framework for climate action. The seven attributes highlight the urgency of emission reductions, whic...
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Attribution of extreme weather events has expanded rapidly as a field over the past decade. However, deficiencies in climate model representation of key dynamical drivers of extreme events have led to some concerns over the robustness of climate model–based attribution studies. It has also been suggested that the unconditioned risk-based approach t...
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This paper provides an outline of a new interdisciplinary project called FixOurFood, funded through UKRI’s ‘Transforming UK food systems’ programme. FixOurFood aims to transform the Yorkshire food system to a regenerative food system and will work to answer two main questions: (1) What do regenerative food systems look like? And (2) How can transfo...
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In the absence of immediate, rapid, and unprecedented reduction in global demand for carbon-intensive energy and products, the capture and permanent storage of billions of tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) annually will be needed before mid-century to meet Paris Agreement goals. Yet the focus on absolute emission reductions and cheaper, more temporary f...
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The IPCC Special Report on 1.5 °C concluded that anthropogenic global warming is determined by cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions and the non-CO2 radiative forcing level in the decades prior to peak warming. We quantify this using CO2-forcing-equivalent (CO2-fe) emissions. We produce an observationally constrained estimate of the Transient Clim...
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The remaining carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5°C will likely be exhausted within this decade1,2. Carbon debt3 generated thereafter will need to be compensated by net negative emissions4. However, economic policy instruments to guarantee potentially very costly net carbon-dioxide removal (CDR) have not yet been devised. Here, we prop...
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Ensuring the environmental integrity of internationally transferred mitigation outcomes, whether through offset arrangements, a market mechanism or non-market approaches, is a priority for the implementation of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. Any conventional transferred mitigation outcome, such as an offset agreement, that involves exchanging gr...
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Here we present an update to the FaIR model for use in probabilistic future climate and scenario exploration, integrated assessment, policy analysis, and education. In this update we have focussed on identifying a minimum level of structural complexity in the model. The result is a set of six equations, five of which correspond to the standard impu...
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Analysis suggests that to limit global temperature rise, we must slash emissions and invest now to protect, manage and restore ecosystems and land for the future. Analysis suggests that to limit global temperature rise, we must slash emissions and invest now to protect, manage and restore ecosystems and land for the future.
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Interest in carbon offsetting is resurging among companies and institutions, but existing offerings fail to make continued use of fossil fuels compatible with a credible transition to sustainable net zero emissions. A clear definition of what makes an offset net-zero-compliant is needed. We introduce the ‘proset’, a new form of composite offset in...
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Precipitation events cause disruption around the world and will be altered by climate change. However, different climate modeling approaches can result in different future precipitation projections. The corresponding ‘method-uncertainty’ is rarely explicitly calculated in climate impact studies and major reports, but can substantially change estima...
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Here we present an update to the FaIR model for use in probabilistic future climate and scenario exploration, integrated assessment, policy analysis and education. In this update we have focussed on identifying a minimum level of structural complexity in the model. The result is a set of six equations, five of which correspond to the standard Impul...
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As the Paris Agreement moves towards implementation, we explore opportunities it presents to move part of the climate change mitigation challenge upstream into supply-side climate policy. Supply-side climate policies have been sparsely employed to date, although interest is growing in approaches that can curtail and end fossil fuel production. Rath...
Preprint
Unless there is immediate, unprecedented, reduction in global demand for carbon-intensive energy and products, then capture and permanent storage of billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) annually will be needed before mid-century to meet Paris Agreement goals. Yet competition from cheaper, temporary, carbon storage means that permanent disposa...
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The atmospheric lifetime and radiative impacts of different climate pollutants can both differ markedly, so metrics that equate emissions using a single scaling factor, such as the 100-year Global Warming Potential (GWP100), can be misleading. An alternative approach is to report emissions as 'warming-equivalents' that result in similar warming imp...
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Abstract. Here we present a Generalised Impulse Response (GIR) model for use in probabilistic future climate and scenario exploration, integrated assessment, policy analysis and teaching. This model is based on a set of only six equations, which correspond to the standard Impulse Response model used for greenhouse gas metric calculations by the IPC...
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Effective climate policy necessitates being able to compare the impact of different greenhouse gases on warming. This is commonly accomplished by converting non-CO2 emissions to CO2 equivalent emissions using Global Warming Potentials (GWP). However, the conventional GWP approach masks the true behaviour of short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) an...
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Bastin et al . (Reports, 5 July 2019, p. 76) claim that global tree restoration is the most effective climate change solution to date, with a reported carbon storage potential of 205 gigatonnes of carbon. However, this estimate and its implications for climate mitigation are inconsistent with the dynamics of the global carbon cycle and its response...
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We investigate the opposing effects of direct radiative forcing and sea surface warming on the atmospheric circulation using a hierarchy of models. In large ensembles of three general circulation models, direct $$\hbox {CO}_2$$ forcing produces a wavenumber 5 stationary wave over the Northern Hemisphere in summer. Sea surface warming produces a sim...
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The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and eddy-driven jet contain a forced component arising from sea surface temperature (SST) variations. Due to large amounts of internal variability, it is not trivial to determine where and to what extent SSTs force the NAO and jet. A linear statistical–dynamic method is employed with a large climate ensemble to...
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Summer weather extremes are often associated with high‐amplitude atmospheric planetary waves (Petoukhov et al., 2013). Such conditions lead to stationary weather patterns, triggering heat waves and sometimes prolonged intense rainfall. These wave events, referred to as periods of Quasi‐Resonant Amplification (QRA), are relatively rare though and he...
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Request to commit UL to Net Zero emissions
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In June 2013, Uttarakhand experienced a hydro-meteorological disaster due to a 4 day extreme precipitation event of return period more than 100 years, claiming thousands of lives and causing enormous damage to infrastructure. Using the weather@home climate modelling system and its Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts si...
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Committed warming describes how much future warming can be expected from historical emissions due to inertia in the climate system. It is usually defined in terms of the level of warming above the present for an abrupt halt of emissions. Owing to socioeconomic constraints, this situation is unlikely, so we focus on the committed warming from presen...
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Climate mitigation: An improved emission metric A new approach allows the temperature forcing of CO2 and short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) to be examined under a common cumulative framework. While anthropogenic warming is largely determined by cumulative emissions of CO2, SLCPs—including soot, other aerosols and methane—also play a role. Quant...
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Potential increases in the risk of extreme weather events under climate change can have significant socio‐economic impacts at regional levels. These impacts are likely to be particularly high in South Asia where Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries. Regional climate models (RCMs) are valuable tools for studying weather and climate at...
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Anthropogenic climate change is likely to increase the frequency of extreme weather events in future. Previous studies have robustly shown how and where climate change has already changed the risks of weather extremes. However, developing countries have been somewhat underrepresented in these studies, despite high vulnerability and limited capaciti...
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Targets agreed to in Paris in 2015 aim to limit global warming to 'well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels'. Despite the far-reaching consequences of this multi-lateral climate change mitigation strategy, the implications for global river flows remain unclear. Here we estimate th...
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Some of the differences between recent estimates of the remaining budget of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C arise from different estimates of the level of warming to date relative to pre-industrial conditions, but not all. Here we show that, for simple geometrical reasons, the combination of both the level...
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The Paris Agreement¹ aims to ‘pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.’ However, it has been suggested that temperature targets alone are insufficient to limit the risks associated with anthropogenic emissions2,3. Here, using an ensemble of model simulations, we show that atmospheric CO2 increase—an ev...
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In key European cities, stabilizing climate warming at 1.5 °C would decrease extreme heat-related mortality by 15–22% per summer compared with stabilization at 2 °C.
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The United Nations' Paris Agreement includes the aim of pursuing efforts to limit global warming to only 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, it is not clear what the resulting climate would look like across the globe and over time. Here we show that trajectories towards a '1.5 °C warmer world' may result in vastly different outcomes at reg...
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In the version of this Article originally published, a coding error resulted in the erroneous inclusion of a subset of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulations in the sets used for RCP2.6 and RCP6, respectively, leading to an incorrect depiction of the data of the latter two sets in Fig. 1b and RCP2.6 in Table 2. This coding error has now been corrected. The...
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The much awaited and intensely negotiated Paris Agreement was adopted on 12 December 2015 by the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The agreement set out a more ambitious long-term temperature goal than many had anticipated, implying more stringent emissions reductions that have been under-explored by the research...
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Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate sim...
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Simple climate models can be valuable if they are able to replicate aspects of complex fully coupled earth system models. Larger ensembles can be produced, enabling a probabilistic view of future climate change. A simple emissions-based climate model, FAIR, is presented, which calculates atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and effective...
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A very large ensemble is used to identify subgrid-scale parameter settings for the HadCM3 model that are capable of best simulating the ocean state over the recent past (1980-2010). A simple particle filtering technique based upon the agreement of basin mean sea surface temperature (SST) and upper 700-m ocean heat content with EN3 observations is a...
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Investors will play a major role, whether active or passive, in climate change mitigation. To enable prudent decision-making, we propose three physically based engagement principles that could be used to assess whether an investment is consistent with a long-term climate goal.
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The Environmental Research Letters focus issue on 'Cumulative Emissions, Global Carbon Budgets and the Implications for Climate Mitigation Targets' was launched in 2015 to highlight the emerging science of the climate response to cumulative emissions, and how this can inform efforts to decrease emissions fast enough to avoid dangerous climate impac...
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Simple climate models can be valuable if they are able to replicate aspects of complex fully coupled earth system models. Larger ensembles can be produced, enabling a probabilistic view of future climate change. A simple emissions-based climate model, FAIR, is presented which calculates atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and effective r...
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p>Recent scientific advances make it possible to assign extreme events to human-induced climate change and historical emissions. These developments allow losses and damage associated with such events to be assigned country-level responsibility.</p
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The Paris Agreement has opened debate on whether limiting warming to 1.5 °C is compatible with current emission pledges and warming of about 0.9 °C from the mid-nineteenth century to the present decade. We show that limiting cumulative post-2015 CO2 emissions to about 200 GtC would limit post-2015 warming to less than 0.6 °C in 66% of Earth system...
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Projections of the response to anthropogenic emission scenarios, evaluation of some greenhouse gas metrics, and estimates of the social cost of carbon often require a simple model that links emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) to atmospheric concentrations and global temperature changes. An essential requirement of such a model is to reproduce typica...
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Atmospheric modes of variability relevant for extreme temperature and precipitation events are evaluated in models currently being used for extreme event attribution. A 100 member initial condition ensemble of the global circulation model HadAM3P is compared with both the multi-model ensemble from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project, Phase 5...
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Hydro-meteorological extremes such as drought and heavy precipitation can have large impacts on society and the economy. With potentially increasing risks associated with such events due to climate change, properly assessing the associated impacts and uncertainties is critical for adequate adaptation. However, the application of risk-based approach...
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Extreme weather events can have large impacts on society and, in many regions, are expected to change in frequency and intensity with climate change. Owing to the relatively short observational record, climate models are useful tools as they allow for generation of a larger sample of extreme events, to attribute recent events to anthropogenic clima...
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Changes in near surface air temperature (ΔT) in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing are expected to show spatial heterogeneity because energy and moisture fluxes are modulated by features of the landscape that are also heterogeneous at these spatial scales. Detecting statistically meaningful heterogeneity requires a combination of high...
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from the UNFCCC to provide a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and on related global greenhouse-gas emission pathways. Many current experiments in, for example, the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP), are n...
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Carbon budgets, which define the total allowable CO2 emissions associated with a given global climate target, are a useful way of framing the climate mitigation challenge. In this paper, we review the geophysical basis for the idea of a carbon budget, showing how this concept emerges from a linear climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions. We th...
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The politically contentious issue of calculating countries' contributions to climate change is strongly dependent on methodological choices. Different principles can be applied for distributing efforts for reducing human-induced global warming. According to the 'Brazilian Proposal', industrialized countries would reduce emissions proportional to th...
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The impacts of weather and climate-related disasters are increasing, and climate change can exacerbate many disasters. Effectively communicating climate risk and integrating science into policy requires scientists and stakeholders to work together. But dialogue between scientists and policymakers can be challenging given the inherently multidimensi...
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Full-text available
Extreme weather events can have large impacts on society and, in many regions, are expected to change in frequency and intensity with climate change. Owing to the relatively short observational record, climate models are useful tools as they allow for generation of a larger sample of extreme events, to attribute recent events to anthropogenic clima...