Mostafa Dabiri’s research while affiliated with Islamic Azad University Sanandaj Branch and other places

One of the most critical challenges in preventive planning and disaster management is the multitudinous uncertainties involved in decision-making. Previous studies showed the usefulness of intuitionistic fuzzy sets for considering uncertainties in decision-making process. Hence, the current study aims to present a combined model using Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets and Risk Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (IF-RFMEA) to determine and prioritize the critical risks of temporary accommodation sites after destructive earthquakes in Iran and bridge the existing research gaps in the literature. To this end, 49 common temporary accommodation risks after earthquakes were identified via a desktop literature survey. Then, the fuzzy Delphi technique was applied to determine the top 20 critical risks with the highest priorities according to experts for evaluation using the proposed method. The Delphi panel members included 18 experts based in Iran with relevant hands-on experience in crisis management and risk management. Finally, 20 identified critical risks were evaluated using three criteria of the probability of occurrence, level of effect, and detection value using the IF-RFMEA technique. According to the analytical results, infectious disease challenges, mental and psychological disorders among survivors, and unemployment and closing of businesses, were the most critical risks after earthquakes in the region. The proposed method of analysis can diminish uncertainties and adopt the main criteria of the probability of occurrence, level of effect, and detection value to improve risk assessment results and analysis in relation to the critical risks of temporary accommodation sites after destructive earthquakes.

Background The process of temporary accommodation after an earthquake is one of the most important issues in crisis management. Objective This research study attempts to identify and prioritize the key risks inherent with the post-earthquake temporary accommodation process in Sanandaj, Iran using the Fuzzy Delphi method. Methods To achieve this goal, first, we examined the previous research on the issue of temporary accommodation after earthquakes and other disasters worldwide in order to determine the current important challenges. Then, the opinions of crisis management experts in 11 areas and 94 questions in the form of Fuzzy Delphi survey questionnaire with Five-point Likert measurement scale were used to rank these challenges. The Delphi panel participants, who responded to the Fuzzy Delphi questionnaire, consisted of 18 experts related to crisis management in executive organizations of Kurdistan province. Result After performing the steps of the fuzzy Delphi method, a basket of important risks in the temporary accommodation process were identified qualitatively and quantitatively, and were prioritized in order of relevance and significance. The results showed that climatic challenges have the highest potential of post-earthquake temporary accommodation risk in the region among of the 11 major risk areas under examination. Conclusion The study’s findings and recommendations can serve as a policy instrument and consultative toolkit for relevant stakeholders.

One of the most important problems after natural disasters in every country is the preparation of temporary accom-modations for victims. The developers of preventive plans are also faced with numerous uncertainties in this crisis management topic. Furthermore, uncertainty is not defined in classical mathematical sets. Therefore, the use of in-tuitionistic fuzzy sets, which include considerations for uncertainty, can be useful in prospective planning in order to counteract possible risks. The main aim of this study is to propose a combined method using risk management and Intuitionistic Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (IF-AHP) for locating and prioritizing the post-earthquake temporary accommodation sites. To this end, the city of Sanandaj in Iran was selected as the case study of this method. First, brainstorming sessions with 9 crisis management experts from various organizations of Kurdistan province were used to determine 6 decision-making criteria. These criteria were based on identified risks in temporary accommodation process after an earthquake in the region, and criteria extracted from previous studies regarding temporary accommodation locations. The possible alternatives for temporary accommodation sites in this study were 13 different urban public spaces. The pairwise comparison of criteria based on the aim and pairwise comparison of alternative temporary accommodation options based on each criterion was carried out by experts and using intuitionistic fuzzy sets. Finally, the IF-AHP process was used to determine the priority of each alternative.