Milline Mbonile’s research while affiliated with University of Dar es Salaam and other places

This paper presents the findings of a study that analyzed land use and cover change, their driving forces and the socio-economic implications on the southern and eastern slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro. This study is based on data extracted from remote sensing techniques using 1973, 1984 and 1999/2000 satellite images and household interviews. The major change detected in the study area from satellite images was expansion of cultivation at the expense of natural vegetation. The area under cultivation increased from 54% in 1973 to 62 and 63% in 1984 and 2000, respectively. Expansion and intensification of cultivation were noted particularly in the lowlands while some forest areas in the highlands had become degraded. These changes led to changes in cropping patterns and crop diversification, declined productivity of land and food insecurity. The underlying drivers of these changes were demographic, government policies, economic factors, socio-cultural factors including the land tenure system, institutional factors, technological change and infrastructure development. Investments in irrigation technology, introduction of new crop varieties and government interventions to support the poor are required to improve the productivity of land and reduce the vulnerability of the people to environmental perturbations, including drought.

Migration of population in search of better sources of water is a widespread phenomenon in Africa with a long-standing history. In the case of the Pangani River Basin in the North East of Tanzania, migration has led to intensive water conflicts caused by the convergence of pastoralists and farmers, traditional irrigation systems and large scale irrigation systems; and other uses including hydropower generation in the basin. The main determinants of these water conflicts in the basin include rapid population increase of both human beings and livestock. The rapid population dynamics of both livestock and human population as a result of natural increase and migration generate additional demands for water as do the irrigation systems, which allow little water downstream for other uses such as generation of power and land alienation, resulting in poor water rights management. Measures that have been taken to resolve some of these water conflicts including the improvement of irrigation systems so they do not waste water and application of environmental impact assessment techniques wherever new projects are introduced in the basin.

Scientists, governments and NGOs have a critical need to understand the reasons behind land degradation, desertification and loss of biodiversity. Development of this understanding needs to be put on a firmer empirical and analytical footing. Current data deficiencies are due to limited biophysical and socio-economic databases that often are temporally and spatially limited. The socio-economic dimensions in particular are also often too simplistically analysed, without capturing the causal processes behind changing land management and land use practices. This approach to understanding the causes and extent of land degradation and loss of biodiversity would be greatly enhanced by the use of land use or land cover change analysis, coupled with ground assessments of human activities and biophysical measurements. Obtaining this knowledge is greatly enhanced with use of an analytical framework to guide the collection, analysis and interpretation of the root causes data and information. A framework is particularly useful for land use change research due to the complexity of the problem. This paper provides a guide and a framework for designing such research; technical methodological guides are available in other LUCID working papers and elsewhere.

The overriding finding of the LUCID land use changes analyses is how rapidly farming and agro-pastoral systems have changed. Small-scale farmers and pastoralists have changed their entire system several times since the 1950’s. New land uses have been developed, and existing land uses have been transformed. In sum, the most significant land use changes have been: 1) an expansion of cropping into grazing areas, particularly in the semi-arid to sub-humid areas, 2) an expansion of rainfed and irrigated agriculture in wetlands or along streams especially in semi-arid areas, 3) a reduction in size of many woodlands and forests on land that is not protected, 4) an intensification of land use in areas already under crops in the more humid areas, and 5) the maintenance of natural vegetation in most protected areas. These changes have allowed many more people to live on the land as farmers and agro-pastoralists, and the systems have shown flexibility and adaptability in face of changing international and national economic and political structures. Diversification, towards a mixture of crops and livestock, cash and food crops, and farm and non-farm income, has been a critical means for households to reduce their risk in face of these changes. Amid the complexity of socio-economic and environmental driving forces of the land use changes across space and time, six factors appear to explain a large part of the dynamics of land use change in East Africa: 1. Government policy, laws and regulations 2. Economic factors 3. Population growth and migration 4. Changes in land tenure arrangements 5. Access to markets 6. Environmental conditions. Despite the rapid evolution of systems responding to these forces, rural poverty is common and key environmental resources are becoming increasingly scarce, contested and/ or degraded. The LUCID team found that poverty, poor land management and land degradation are much more common and persistent in marginal environments, especially, the remote, semi-arid zones.

The overriding finding of the LUCID land use changes analyses is how rapidly farming and agro-pastoral systems have changed. Small-scale farmers and pastoralists have changed their entire system several times since the 1950’s. New land uses have been developed, and existing land uses have been transformed. In sum, the most significant land use changes have been: 1) an expansion of cropping into grazing areas, particularly in the semi-arid to sub-humid areas, 2) an expansion of rainfed and irrigated agriculture in wetlands or along streams especially in semi-arid areas, 3) a reduction in size of many woodlands and forests on land that is not protected, 4) an intensification of land use in areas already under crops in the more humid areas, and 5) the maintenance of natural vegetation in most protected areas. These changes have allowed many more people to live on the land as farmers and agro-pastoralists, and the systems have shown flexibility and adaptability in face of changing international and national economic and political structures. Diversification, towards a mixture of crops and livestock, cash and food crops, and farm and non-farm income, has been a critical means for households to reduce their risk in face of these changes. Despite the rapid evolution of systems responding to these forces, rural poverty is common and key environmental resources are becoming increasingly scarce, contested and/ or degraded. The LUCID team found that poverty, poor land management and land degradation are much more common and persistent in marginal environments, especially, the remote, semi-arid zones. Even in the most productive, highly managed zones, however, the variation between households in levels of soil management and productivity is important. In the more marginal, semi-arid zones, herding systems have experienced multiple chronic pressures to alter land use. The situation is thus critical in semi-arid areas—where the marginality and vulnerability of the human and environmental systems overlap and are currently in the processes of worsening.

Scientists, governments and NGOs have a critical need to understand the reasons behind land degradation, desertification and loss of biodiversity. What is needed is an approach that links biophysical and socio-economic processes with land use and land management practices, which in turn would be linked to landscape or ecosystem dynamics. This approach to understanding the causes and extent of land degradation and loss of biodiversity would be greatly enhanced by the use of land use or land cover change analysis, coupled with ground assessments of human activities and biophysical measurements. This report provides a guide and framework for this analysis. It discusses what information can be obtained from land use analysis, provides a conceptual framework for identifying the root causes of land use change, provides a set of common issues and research questions, and discusses the implications of the analytical framework for the choice of methods and interpretation of results.

The "Land Use Change Analysis as an Approach for Investigating Biodiversity Loss and Land Degradation" is a medium sized targeted research project funded by United Nations Environment Programme-Global Environment Facility (UNEP-GEF) and other donors. The project provides an umbrella for coordinated research activities occurring in sites across East Africa, and at the East Africa regional level. The project’s goal is to contribute to the conservation of biodiversity and prevention of land degradation by providing useful instruments, or methodological guides, to identify and monitor changes in the landscape associated with biodiversity loss and land degradation, and to identify the root causes of those changes. The main approach has been to examine the linkages between the processes of change in biodiversity, land degradation and land use in East Africa in order to derive information and experience upon which to base the design of the guides for detecting such trends. Various ecological, socioeconomic and land use change theories and conceptual frameworks have informed the research and the guides.