Miguel Almeida Ferreira’s research while affiliated with NOVA School of Business and Economics and other places

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Publications (46)


The Heterogeneous Effects of Household Debt Relief
  • Article

January 2025

SSRN Electronic Journal

Miguel Almeida Ferreira

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Manuel Adelino

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Miguel Oliveira

Summary Statistics at the Province Level Table 1 reports the mean, standard deviation, 25th percentile, median, 75th percentile, and number of observations for each variable by province and year. Panel A shows the lottery variables in all provinces. Panel B shows the lottery variables for the province with the maximum prize per capita each year. Panel C shows macroeconomic variables. Panel D shows entrepreneurship variables. All monetary variables are in constant 2010 euros. The sample covers the period of 1994 to 2016.
presents estimates of regressions of the lottery prize (in thousands of euros per capita) at the province level (LOTTERY_PRIZE). LOTTERY_EXPENDITURE is the lottery expenditure (in thousands of euros per capita). INFLATION_RATE is the growth of the CPI (consumer price index). UNEMPLOYMENT_RATE is the unemployment rate. POPULATION is the logarithm of the population (in thousands). GDP is the logarithm of GDP (in thousands of euros per capita). HOUSING_PRICE is the logarithm of the housing price index (in euros per square meter). BANK_LOANS are bank loans (in thousands of euros per capita). The sample covers the period of 1994 to 2016. Robust t-statistics clustered at the province level are shown in parentheses. *, **, and *** indicate statistical significance at the 10%, 5%, and 1% levels, respectively.
How Do Cash Windfalls Affect Entrepreneurship? Evidence from the Spanish Christmas Lottery
  • Article
  • Full-text available

June 2024

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29 Reads

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2 Citations

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis

We show cash windfalls affect the real economy by spurring entrepreneurship. We identify these effects using the Spanish Christmas Lottery, which provides a unique setting as prizes are geographically concentrated and distributed among thousands of households. We find higher start-up entry, job creation, and self-employment in winning regions. Consistent with a financial constraints channel, results are strongest in sectors relying on external finance and regions with limited credit access. Newly created firms are larger, more profitable, and survive longer. For existing firms, however, growth and profitability do not respond to lottery awards, but wages increase due to tighter labor markets.

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Indirect Costs of Financial Distress

April 2023

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71 Reads

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2 Citations

European Finance Review

We estimate the indirect costs of financial distress due to lost sales by exploiting real estate shocks and cross-supplier variation in real estate assets and leverage. We show that for the same client buying from different suppliers, the client’s purchases from distressed suppliers decline by an additional 13% following a drop in local real estate prices. The effect is more pronounced in more competitive industries, manufacturing, durable goods, less-specific goods, and when the costs of switching suppliers are low. Our results suggest that clients reduce their exposure to suppliers in financial distress.


Trade Credit and the Transmission of Unconventional Monetary Policy

June 2022

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20 Reads

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25 Citations

Review of Financial Studies

We show that production networks are important for the transmission of unconventional monetary policy. Firms with bonds eligible for purchase under the European Central Bank’s Corporate Sector Purchase Program act as financial intermediaries by extending additional trade credit to their customers. The increase in trade credit is pronounced from core countries to periphery countries and for financially constrained customers. Customers then increase investment and employment in response to the increased trade financing, whereas suppliers expand their customer base, contributing to upstream industry concentration. Our findings suggest that trade credit redistributes the effects of monetary policy across regions and firms.


Do Credit Rating Agencies Influence Elections?

June 2022

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3 Reads

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7 Citations

European Finance Review

We show that credit rating agencies can influence political elections. We find that incumbent political parties experience an increase in their vote shares following municipal bond upgrades. The evidence is consistent with rating agencies affecting elections indirectly by expanding local governments’ debt capacity and directly through an impact on voters’ perceptions of the quality of incumbent politicians. To identify these effects, we examine election outcomes within neighboring counties by exploiting exogenous variation in municipal bond ratings due to Moody’s recalibration of its scale in 2010.




Citations (21)


... Impacto en la actividad económica y en el consumo de recursos Otra consecuencia económica del calor es que disminuye la actividad económica ya que las personas evitan salir a hacer compras por la elevada temperatura ambiente. La evidencia muestra el amplio impacto del aumento de las temperaturas en interacciones comerciales entre empresas y sus proveedores (Custódio, Ferreira, & Lam, 2021). Para explorar esta relación, los investigadores utilizaron datos de transacciones realizadas entre 2000 y 2015 de más de 2.200 empresas de Estados Unidos y los cruzaron con datos del clima, evaluando fluctuaciones en las operaciones cuando las temperaturas aumentaron. ...

Reference:

Islas Urbanas de Calor. Caracterización de una amenaza urbana y análisis de alternativas para su detección y adaptación.
Economic Impact of Climate Change
  • Citing Article
  • January 2022

SSRN Electronic Journal

... Additionally, the digital nature of P2P lending platforms enhances accessibility, enabling both individuals and SMEs to conveniently apply for loans online. By providing a more flexible and efficient funding option, fintech lending helps reduce SMEs' reliance on traditional bank financing, fostering greater financial inclusion and business growth [5,6]. ...

The Real Effects of Fintech Lending on SMEs: Evidence from Loan Applications
  • Citing Article
  • January 2022

SSRN Electronic Journal

... Besides, Tavlas et al. (2020) support the idea that the lack of a central bank safety net in the markets for sovereign bonds intensified feedback loops, and Albertazzi et al. (2021) document that foreign lenders stabilise lending, reducing the doom loop. Bonfim et al. (2022) demonstrate how the negative feedback loop between sovereigns and banks can be exacerbated by banks' lending exposure to businesses with government contracts. ...

Sovereign-Bank Diabolic Loop: The Government Procurement Channel
  • Citing Article
  • January 2022

SSRN Electronic Journal

... The paper also adds to a growing literature that uses the Christmas draw of the Spanish National Lottery as a natural experiment to study its effects on voting behaviour (Bagues and Esteve-Volart, 2016), entrepreneurial activity (Bermejo et al., 2022), sentiments and durables consumption (Ghomi et al., 2022), or employment, business, and migration (Kent and Martínez-Marquina, 2022). This randomized experiment offers the advantages that most Spanish citizens participate in the draw (around 75% of the population), the draw takes place every year at the same date (22 nd December), winners tend to be geographically concentrated within regions, and the prizes represent a substantial share of regional GDP. ...

Windfall Gains and Entrepreneurial Activity: Evidence from the Spanish Christmas Lottery
  • Citing Article
  • January 2022

SSRN Electronic Journal

... Eça et al. (2021) find that funds from technology-based online platforms go to high-quality small firms that already have access to bank credit. Recent studies show that trade credit has been an important distribution channel for conventional and unconventional monetary policies (e.g., Adelino et al., 2023;Brechling & Lipsey, 1963). Allen et al. (2019) show that trade credit is more popular in regions with more developed banking. ...

Trade Credit and the Transmission of Unconventional Monetary Policy
  • Citing Article
  • June 2022

Review of Financial Studies

... Municipal credit ratings represent complicated and multidimensional assessments of a city's financial health packaged for voters into a simple performance metric. Credit ratings can give local voters what they need to know to assess incumbents' performance as financial stewards (Cunha, Ferreira, & Silva, 2022). They may also allow voters to make inferences about life in the city during the incumbent's tenure. ...

Do Credit Rating Agencies Influence Elections?
  • Citing Article
  • June 2022

European Finance Review

... Finally, it may also be that only in certain client segments there is competition, while in others the activities are complementary. Eça et al. (2022), based on data from the Peer-to-Business platform, show that LT can service SMEs with high creditworthiness that already have access to bank loans. Companies with low liquid assets and own capital use loan companies to obtain long-term unsecured loans and reduce their debt to banks. ...

The Real Effects of FinTech Lending on SMEs: Evidence from Loan Applications
  • Citing Article
  • January 2022

SSRN Electronic Journal

... Policies of central banks of large financial systems affect capital flows and credit cycles around the world, as evidenced by the positive correlation between domestic interest rates and euro area interest rates. (Vujčić, 2015) According to Adelino et al (2021), conventional monetary policy no longer has any larger effects, and emerging markets are forced to apply unconventional monetary policy to encourage monetary transmission in the desired direction. Therefore, the small, open economies are influenced by the monetary policy of larger financial systems and international financial markets. ...

Trade Credit and the Transmission of Unconventional Monetary Policy
  • Citing Article
  • January 2020

SSRN Electronic Journal

... The complementary hypothesis suggests that a decline/rise in bank credit is accompanied by a decrease/increase in trade credit, thereby, exacerbating the impact on financially constrained firms of any financial contraction or expansion (De Blasio, 2003;Mateut, 2005;Jacobson and von Schedvin, 2015). The transmission of non-conventional monetary policy measures to trade credit can generally be independent of the bank lending channel (Adelino et al., 2020). Using the European Central Bank's (ECB) Corporate Sector Purchase Program (CSPP), they show that firms with access to bond markets (i.e., typically large firms) can act as financial intermediaries, by providing trade credit to their customers who do not have access to bond markets. ...

Trade Credit and the Transmission of Unconventional Monetary Policy
  • Citing Article
  • January 2020

SSRN Electronic Journal

... 14 Although Lipper lists multiple share classes as separate funds, they have the same holdings, the same manager, and the same returns before expenses and loads. To prevent double counting of funds, we follow, e.g., Demirci, Ferreira, Matos, and Sialm (2020) and Ferreira, Keswani, Miguel, and Ramos (2019), and use the primary share class as our unit of observation and aggregate fund-level variables across different share classes. Our sample is restricted to domestic funds, i.e., those funds investing primarily in US stocks. ...

How Global is Your Mutual Fund? International Diversification from Multinationals
  • Citing Article
  • January 2019

SSRN Electronic Journal