Michele Ruta’s research while affiliated with International Monetary Fund and other places

... Multiregional input-output models (MRIO) have been widely used in the recent literature to assess the economic, environmental and social impacts of production through international trade (see Wang et al. (2019) for a review). These models show unique characteristics that trace those impacts from the origin of production to its destination throughout the GVCs of every product in every country and at every production stage (Inomata, 2019). Recently, the MRIO framework has also been used in the analysis of GVC breakdowns or restructuring resulting from Brexit or the COVID-19 pandemic (Chen et al., 2018;Giammetti, 2020;Guan et al., 2020) and to assess improvements in GVC resilience (Kitsos et al., 2019). ...

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Consequences of legislation-based reshoring for EU carbon emissions in global value chains

... For example, after considering the value-added portion of US imports from third countries to China, the share of US imports from China increased from 21.6% in 2017 to 23.3% in 2021 (Ma and Ning 2024). There are also studies suggesting that the US China trade war has enabled third-party countries to gain scale and efficiency and expand their exports, but there is little evidence to suggest that countries that vote in line with the United States at the United Nations have significantly reduced trade with China (Freund et al. 2024). ...

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Offensive decoupling and realignment of trade in Northeast Asia

... Using the Global Trade Alert database, Juhász et al. (2022), defining industrial policy as measures intended to transform/shape the composition of economic activity, estimate that some 40-45% of all trade-related measures implemented by G20 countries since 2009 constitute industrial policies. 3 Evenett et al. (2024) show that much of the industrial policy activity is undertaken by high-income countries and often involves subsidies. Developing countries in contrast tend to use traditional trade measures (Figure 1), a difference Evenett et al. attribute to fiscal capacity constraints. ...

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Industrial Policy and International Cooperation

... In Kenya, tax revenue is predisposed by complex institutional and structural factors, both economic, governance, and regulatory [11]. The identified reasons are crucial for enhancing tax collection to reduce budget deficits [12]. It is so complex, with the highly contextual relationship between agriculture share, per capita income, trade openness, and inflation to tax revenue. ...

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Institutional and Structural Determinants of Tax Revenue Mobilization in Kenya

... Countries worldwide have been increasingly signing different types of PTAs, which have also become increasingly complex and deep in their content (Kohl et al., 2016;Hofmann et al., 2019;Mattoo et al., 2020). 1 These deep PTAs cover not just trade but also provisions on additional policy areas such as IPRs protection, competition policy, trade-related investment measures, public procurement, e-commerce, service liberalization, the environment, or investment and labor flows. These trade-related issues aim at deepening integration beyond trade, and IPRs are one of the most common policy areas covered by deep PTAs (Mattoo et al., 2020). ...

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Preferential trade agreements and intellectual property rights

... The missed opportunities in agri-food trade that could positively impact the SDGs would be environmental provisions in regional trade agreements (RTAs) that are effective in deterring damage to the ecosystem because of trade liberalisation, for example, limiting deforestation. Abman et al. (2024) found that the inclusion of specific provisions aimed at protecting forests and/or biodiversity almost entirely offsets the net increases in forest loss observed in similar RTAs without such provisions, especially for tropical, developing countries with greater biodiversity. Due to trade liberalisation that can spur environmental degradation, the inclusion of these environmental provisions limits agricultural expansion, hence reducing deforestation that can help to achieve SDG 15 (life on land). ...

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Interlinkages Between Agri‐Food Trade and the SDGs at the Global, Regional and Local Level

... In examining the role of cultural similarity in determining migration patterns, Grohmann 19 shows that using DICL data to control for linguistic similarity produces estimates that are similar in magnitude and direction to those in earlier work that use different data to measure language. Fontagńe et al. 20 examine the role of infrastructure in pan-African trade. In this estimation, the authors use the DICL linguistic proximity index as a control for ease of communication, producing positive and significant results that are consistent with prior literature on language and trade. ...

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A Dataset on Linguistic Connectivity Across and Within Countries

... The number of announced greenfield FDI projects in Russia collapsed from 157 in 2021 to just 21 in 2023, and the sources of this investment shifted dramatically. In 2021, 59% of announced greenfield FDI projects in Russia were from 18 Product-level analysis of shifts of U.S. imports away from China highlights the effects of tariffs (Freund et al., 2023) and the feasibility/economic attractiveness of shifting to alternative locations [see pp. 52-58 of Altman and Bastian (2024)]. ...

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Challenging the deglobalization narrative: Global flows have remained resilient through successive shocks

... A one SD increase in lagged joint uncertainty is associated with a decline in bilateral trade by 2.6%, 1.1% age points higher than the baseline result. This finding is slightly similar to previous findings by Jakubik and Ruta (2023), suggesting that a one SD hike in global trade policy uncertainty leads to a 3.1 percent decline in bilateral trade between geopolitical rival countries. ...

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The Heterogeneous Effects of Uncertainty on Trade

... Indeed, education is the most vital social institution in any modern society. It is the key to a society's economic development and affects almost every aspect of an individual's life as a determinant of social outcomes [12]. ...

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Providing a Behavioral Educational Model for Socially Vulnerable Groups