December 2024
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Connected and automated driving (CAD) is likely to affect the German transportation system. Three consecutive models assess the effects of private automated vehicles (PAV) and shared automated vehicles (SAV) on car ownership, car stock, and travel demand in 2050 based on different scenarios. Firstly, a car ownership model (COM) estimates car availability at household level including changes in accessibility through CAD. Based on the year of market entry and additional costs, a car stock model (CAST) quantifies the diffusion of CAD within the German car fleet in 2050. Finally, the effects of CAD on transportation volumes and key indicators for SAV services are determined using the national travel demand model of Germany (DEMO). The model results for PAV show an increase in ownership by up to 1% with a 44% diffusion of Level 4+ cars in 2050. They account for over 50% of kilometers driven and increase overall vehicle kilometers traveled by 3%. On the contrary, SAV will reduce car ownership in urban regions by up to 4%, but increase vehicle kilometers traveled by 5%. Automation improves the transportation system and makes traveling easier. But to cope with the environmental implications, it is necessary to provide a political framework which stresses the advantages of CAD.