Michael P. McDonald’s research while affiliated with University of Florida and other places

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Publications (92)


United States Precinct Boundaries and Statewide Partisan Election Results
  • Article
  • Full-text available

October 2024

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8 Reads

Scientific Data

Brian Amos

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Steven Gerontakis

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Michael McDonald

We describe the creation and verification of databases of all precinct boundaries used in the United States 2016, 2018, and 2020 November general elections, enhanced with election results for all partisan statewide offices. United States election officials report election results in the smallest geographic reporting known as the precinct. Scholars and practitioners find these election results valuable for numerous use cases. However, these data cannot be augmented with other geographically-bound data, such as U.S. Census data, without precinct boundaries. Here we describe the collection of precinct boundary data from state and local election officials, sometimes provided in GIS formats, images, text descriptions, and – in rare cases – verbally. We describe how we verify boundaries with other election data, such as geocoded voter registration files. Our open-source data has appeared in redistricting litigation argued before the United States Supreme Court; and has been used by state and local redistricting authorities, media organizations, advocacy groups, scholars, and a vibrant community of mapping enthusiasts.

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Campus Voting During the COVID-19 Pandemic

February 2024

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26 Reads

American Politics Research

Michael McDonald

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Enrijeta Shino

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[...]

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Danielle Dietz

How did the pandemic impact turnout of young voters living in university communities? Leveraging the mandatory vacating of Florida college students living on campuses and drawing on administrative data from Florida’s voter file, we argue that on-campus registered young voters who had to leave their university housing in the days prior to Florida’s 2020 Presidential Preference Primary (PPP) were less likely to turn out compared to adjacent off-campus young voters because they lost the opportunity to cast early in-person and Election Day ballots. Using a difference-in-differences (DiD) design, we find that on-campus students, in part because they had early and Election Day voting available to them on campus in the 2020 general election, were more likely than comparable off-campus student-aged registered voters to cast ballots in the November election. Our study has important implications for academic debates concerning the turnout effects of convenience voting reforms and the ability of voters to cast ballots prior to Election Day.



FIG. 2. Mail Ballot Usage Versus VEP Turnout Rate in the 2020 general election.
FIG. 3. Predicted Probabilities for Turnout by Percentage of Mail Ballots Cast, Cooperative Election Study (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS), 2012-2020. Notes: Predicted probabilities for turnout by percentage of mail ballots cast. Other controls are held at their modal value. Plotted predicted probabilities are bracketed by 95% confidence intervals.
Turnout Models: CPS 2012-2020
Mail Voting and Voter Turnout

June 2023

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95 Reads

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6 Citations

Election Law Journal Rules Politics and Policy





Verifying Voter Registration Records

May 2020

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43 Reads

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12 Citations

American Politics Research

This study investigates the reliability of Florida’s voter registration files through a phone survey, asking respondents to verify their records. We find 17.7% of registrants fail to verify at least one identifying piece of information. Applying the total survey error (TSE) framework, we classify these errors as due to coverage error, measurement error, or processing error. These inconsistencies create election administration and campaign inefficiencies, which lead to poorer voter experiences, and challenge the validity of some research based on these data. Furthermore, if registration records do not accurately capture the members of protected groups, the data are less helpful in both government monitoring and enforcement. We suggest voter registration forms should be treated like survey questionnaires so as to improve data quality with better form design, and that some vote overreport bias is attributable to limitations of voter file data, not to respondents’ vote misreporting.


A Method to Audit the Assignment of Registered Voters to Districts and Precincts

January 2020

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41 Reads

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5 Citations

Political Analysis

Electoral boundaries are an integral part of election administration. District boundaries delineate which legislative election voters are eligible to participate in, and precinct boundaries identify, in many localities, where voters cast in-person ballots on Election Day. Election officials are tasked with resolving a tremendously large number of intersections of registered voters with overlapping electoral boundaries. Any large-scale data project is susceptible to errors, and this task is no exception. In two recent close elections, these errors were consequential to the outcome. To address this problem, we describe a method to audit the assignment of registered voters to districts. We apply the methodology to Florida’s voter registration file to identify thousands of registered voters assigned to the wrong state House district, many of which local election officials have verified and rectified. We discuss how election officials can best use this technique to detect registered voters assigned to the wrong electoral boundary.



Citations (50)


... To be sure, voters who cast mail ballots implicitly accept these added restrictions in exchange for the convenience of voting remotely. As a result of the coronavirus pandemic, millions of voters shifted to mail voting in the 2020 election, as the use of mail ballots across the states hit record highs, including in Florida (McDonald et al. 2024). ...

Reference:

Vote Method and Confidence in Elections
Mail Voting and Voter Turnout

Election Law Journal Rules Politics and Policy

... We also consider the possibility that parties may change for reasons bearing little relationship to factions. Increased partisanship at both the mass and elite levels may stem from a secular trend towards greater polarization, especially on the right (Arceneaux, Johnson, and Murphy 2012;Druckman, Peterson, and Slothuus 2013;Prior 2013), institutional factors such as redistricting (Altman and McDonald 2015;Carson, Engstrom, and Roberts 2007), or the novel candidacy of Donald Trump. To address these possibilities, we isolate the impact of factionalism through our identification strategy. ...

Redistricting and Polarization
  • Citing Chapter
  • November 2015

... This reflects that the tools were inaccessible, had limited capacities and were complicated to use, and above all, were extremely costly. The situation began to change in the 1990s, when the first commercial GIS tools appeared on the market (Altman & McDonald, 2019). These were more powerful and user-friendly. ...

The Public Mapping Project: How Public Participation Can Revolutionize Redistricting
  • Citing Book
  • December 2019

... For instance, Merino et al. present a system that allows voters to create indistinguishable real and fake credentials to mitigate coercion concerns when using an untrusted device to register to vote [47]. Another line of work attempts to detect anomalies in public voter registration lists using statistical models [15,17,24,60,62]. Some have proposed using blockchains to store voters' data [55], though only as part of a broader design for an electronic-only voting system. ...

Verifying Voter Registration Records
  • Citing Article
  • May 2020

American Politics Research

... Instead, they manage their voter registration databases using master street address files that identify which precinct each street address range is located in (e.g., even numbered 100-198 Main Street is associated with precinct 1). When we geocode voter registration files during our quality assurance protocols we may detect errors in these master street address files when we observe a street range assigned to one precinct while surrounding neighbors are assigned to another 23 . We have consulted with the Colorado and Virginia state governments to identify and rectify these errors, and alerted numerous localities elsewhere of potential issues. ...

A Method to Audit the Assignment of Registered Voters to Districts and Precincts
  • Citing Article
  • January 2020

Political Analysis

... The study revealed that there was limited literature in the area of user participation approaches, especially in the public electronic service development, which makes this study vital, to fill this knowledge gap. More so, egovernment implementation can succeed where users directly participate or intensify control of eproject systems via some actors, thus concentrating power and ownership among the end users (McDonald & Altman, 2018;Kagoya & Mbamba, 2019). This study suggests that, to attain egovernment implementation success in the Ugandan context, top management support must moderate the relationship between user attributes and e-government implementation. ...

The Public Mapping Project: How Public Participation Can Revolutionize Redistricting

... However, the current study used a two-survey method with a significant time gap (four years) to capture consumers' changing viewpoints. It is common in research in different disciplines (DeBell et al. 2020;Medolla 2024), as well as in the Australian Census (Australian Bureau of Statistics [ABS], n.d.), to capture data with a 4-5-year gap to check changes in society or in a specific behaviour. In the current study, 290 participants took part in Study 1 and 201 in Study 2: These sample sizes were consistent with those in similar past studies (Curina et al. 2020;Habib et al. 2023;Park, Hyun, and Thavisay 2021;. ...

The Turnout Gap in Surveys: Explanations and Solutions
  • Citing Article
  • May 2018

Sociological Methods & Research

... Other variables identified as significant, including competition, party, opponent quality, ideology, and district demographics, are largely consistent with the models in Culberson et al. (2019). Time in office is associated with a negative coefficient, which is consistent with their finding that freshman candidates raise more in small contributions than more senior peers. ...

Small Donors in Congressional Elections
  • Citing Article
  • March 2018

American Politics Research

... La tecnología y su gestión ha tenido importantes aportes e impactos en los procesos electorales. Adam y Fazekas (2021) y Trelles et al. (2016) resaltan cómo las tecnologías de información y comunicaciones (TIC) han incidido en la lucha contra la corrupción apoyando procesos gubernamentales, al impulsar la transparencia, facilitar la rendición de cuentas y promover una mayor participación de la ciudadanía en una amplia gama de actividades, incluidas las relativas al ciclo electoral. Empero, estos autores aclaran que la tecnología per se no es la panacea, puesto que también es útil para la corrupción y sus vulnerabilidades pueden favorecerla, lo que evidencia que resulta clave su gestión, así como el contexto en el que se implemente. ...

Open Data, Transparency and Redistricting in Mexico

Política y Gobierno