Michael McWilliams's research while affiliated with University of Michigan and other places
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Publications (5)
This article looks at a new approach to expert elicitation that combines basic elements of conventional expert elicitation protocols with formal survey methods and larger, heterogeneous expert panels. This approach is appropriate where the hazard-estimation task requires a wide range of expertise and professional experience. The ability to judge wh...
U.S. foodborne illness risk analysis would benefit greatly from better information on the relationship between the incidence of foodborne illness and exposure to foodborne pathogens. In this study, expert elicitation was used to attribute U.S. foodborne illnesses caused by the nine FoodNet pathogens, Toxoplasma gondii, and noroviruses to consumptio...
Decision analysts are frequently called on to help inform decision makers in cases involving considerable uncertainty. In such situations, expert elicitation of parameter values is frequently used to supplement more conventional research. Expert elicitations typically rely on small panels of experts. However, in cases where the information needed f...
Citations
... In this regard, Batz et al. (2012) reported that outbreak-based attribution estimates for Campylobacter, Toxoplasma and Yersinia are not representative; therefore expert-based attribution seems better for these pathogens. Hoffmann et al. (2008) also advocated the use of expert opinion because outbreak data generally are incomplete, whereas using a structured approach for eliciting expert opinion, allowing for assessment of the reliability of the expert-based data, would cover all commoditypathogen combinations. Previous foodborne source attribution studies (Batz et al., 2012;Hoffman et al., 2007;Vally et al., 2016) have reported varied levels of uncertainty around the estimates at the commodity level, which could be expected to be greater when linking a disease rarely reported with sub-product categories. ...
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... However, this should not diminish the utility of the findings as a first depiction of the diversity of factors related to AMR in the Canadian food chain context, that allows us to identify additional domain experts with whom to engage in future model expansion and validation. Our approach was guided by expert elicitation, a method particularly useful for addressing questions that are difficult to answer via any other means [17,[22][23][24][25], that has been used previously to both qualitatively to rank pathways and build models [26,27], and to produce quantitative estimates [24,25,28]. In the field of enteric pathogen source attribution, for example, when quantitative data are incomplete or unavailable, expert elicitation represents the only possible method for synthesizing knowledge about pathogen transmission [29]. ...
... Hoffmann et al. (2008) also advocated the use of expert opinion because outbreak data generally are incomplete, whereas using a structured approach for eliciting expert opinion, allowing for assessment of the reliability of the expert-based data, would cover all commoditypathogen combinations. Previous foodborne source attribution studies (Batz et al., 2012;Hoffman et al., 2007;Vally et al., 2016) have reported varied levels of uncertainty around the estimates at the commodity level, which could be expected to be greater when linking a disease rarely reported with sub-product categories. Given the number of participants and the range of relevant disciplines represented, it was not surprising that the level of expertise varied somewhat. ...
... It is estimated that 20 to 30% of campylobacteriosis cases can be attributed to 1 handling, preparing, and consuming of broiler meat (EFSA BIOHAZ Panel, 2010). Probabilistic models of subtyping based on multilocus sequence typing (MLST) of C. jejuni isolates from USA and Australia suggest broilers may constitute as a reservoir, and that contributes to 50 to 80% of human cases (Mead et al., 1999;Hall et al., 2005;Hoffmann et al., 2007;Boysen et al., 2013). In addition to broilers, beef is considered the second most important source for human campylobacteriosis (Skarp et al., 2016;Wainaina et al., 2022). ...
