Michael Kremer’s research while affiliated with University of Chicago and other places

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Publications (255)


Digital Information Provision and Behavior Change: Lessons from Six Experiments in East Africa
  • Article

January 2025

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7 Reads

American Economic Journal Applied Economics

Raissa Fabregas

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Michael Kremer

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Matthew Lowes

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[...]

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While some studies suggest mobile phone–based information programs change behavior; others find no effect. We evaluate six text message agricultural extension programs, collectively covering 128,000 farmers. A meta-analysis finds a 1.22-fold increase in the odds of adoption of recommended practices (95 percent CI: 1.16, 1.29). We cannot reject similar impacts across experiments. Impacts are increased by message repetition, but not by providing more granular information, using behavioral framings, or complementing texts with phone calls. There is little evidence of message fatigue or crowd-out. Despite modest absolute impacts detectable only with large samples or meta-analysis, texts are inexpensive enough to be cost-effective. (JEL D83, D91, L96, O13, Q12, Q16)



Meta-analysis and public policy: Reconciling the evidence on deworming

June 2024

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9 Reads

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1 Citation

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

The WHO recommends mass drug administration (MDA) for intestinal worm infections in areas with over 20% infection prevalence. Recent Cochrane meta-analyses endorse treatment of infected individuals but recommend against MDA. We conducted a theory-agnostic random-effects meta-analysis of the effect of multiple-dose MDA and a cost-effectiveness analysis. We estimate significant effects of MDA on child weight (0.15 kg, 95% CI: 0.07, 0.24; P < 0.001), mid-upper arm circumference (0.20 cm, 95% CI: 0.03, 0.37; P = 0.02), and height (0.09 cm, 95% CI: 0.01, 0.16; P = 0.02) when prevalence is over 20% but not on Hb (0.06 g/dL, 95% CI: −0.01, 0.14; P = 0.1). These results suggest that MDA is a cost-effective intervention, particularly in the settings where it is recommended by the WHO.





Credit Access, Selection, and Incentives in a Market for Asset-Collateralized Loans: Evidence From Kenya

March 2023

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8 Reads

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6 Citations

Review of Economic Studies

We study the potential for asset collateralization to expand access to credit in rural Kenya. Increasing the share of a loan for a durable agricultural asset that is collateralized by the physical asset itself (from 0 to 96%) while reducing the share backed by financial assets increases loan take-up considerably, with only a very limited impact on repayment behavior and the lender's profitability. A Karlan–Zinman test finds evidence of small and marginally significant selection effects in some specifications but no evidence of moral hazard. We find no evidence that joint versus individual liability affects take-up or repayment. Loans had real impacts on investment, milk sales, and girls’ school enrollment. The lender, a savings and credit cooperative, responded to the study results by offering 80% asset-collateralized loans.



Figure 1: Example illustrating benefits from accelerating and expanding vaccine capacity
Figure 2: Probability of success from vaccine portfolios.
Figure 3: Computing programme costs for several portfolio sizes.
Global value of alternative vaccine-capacity policies
Results for optimal vaccine portfolios by individual countries and categories
Expanding capacity for vaccines against Covid-19 and future pandemics: a review of economic issues
  • Article
  • Full-text available

December 2022

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68 Reads

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23 Citations

Oxford Review of Economic Policy

We review economic arguments for using public policy to accelerate vaccine supply during a pandemic. Rapidly vaccinating a large share of the global population helps avoid economic, mortality, and social losses, which in the case of Covid-19 mounted into trillions of dollars. However, pharmaceutical firms are unlikely to have private incentives to invest in vaccine capacity at the socially optimal scale and speed. The socially optimal level of public spending may cause some sticker shock but—as epitomized by the tagline ‘spending billions to save trillions’—is eclipsed by the benefits and can be restrained with the help of careful policy design and advance preparations. Capacity is so valuable during a pandemic that fractional dosing and other measures to stretch available capacity should be explored.

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Digital Agricultural Extension for Development

September 2022

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1,058 Reads

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29 Citations

Providing information at scale about improved agricultural practices to smallholder farmers remains a challenge in most developing countries. Traditional dissemination methods like in-person meetings or radio programming can be costly to scale or offer too generic information. Moreover, while most agronomic recommendations focus on maximizing crop yields, farmers weigh multiple other factors when making farming decisions, such as the profitability of investments and risks. The proliferation of mobile phones has shifted these trends. Mobile agriculture extension can cost-effectively provide tailored suggestions to farmers and improve their use of information. This case study describes the use of digital extension technologies to support farmers in a number of contexts. We draw insights from various studies and the experience of Precision Development on the importance of human-centered design, monitoring, and continuous experimentation. The chapter also discusses the ecosystem of stakeholders for digital agriculture, concerns relating to privacy and financing, and how mobile services can be used to facilitate social learning.


Citations (83)


... Seminal work finds human capital and short-term health benefits from mass de-worming (Bleakley, 2007;Miguel and Kremer, 2004). However, the value of large-scale de-worming continues to be debated (Croke et al., 2024;Taylor-Robinson et al., 2019). This study contributes direct evidence on the adult life expectancy and morbidity consequences of childhood de-worming. ...

Reference:

Early-life infectious disease exposure, the 'hygiene hypothesis', and lifespan: evidence from hookworm
Meta-analysis and public policy: Reconciling the evidence on deworming
  • Citing Article
  • June 2024

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

... Banerjee et al., 2015;Bocher et al., 2017;Tarozzi et al., 2015), particularly when based on entrepreneurial undertakings (e.g., Alvarez & Barney, 2014), and the Nobel Prize awarded to Banerjee, Duflo, and Kremer in 2019 for their research on various approaches to reducing poverty also explain the increase in studies on the potential of microfinance and microcredit to produce positive outcomes, such as education and empowerment, in addition to generating wealth (A. V. Banerjee et al., 2016). Several scholars (such as A. Banerjee et al., 2015;Angelucci et al., 2015;Tarozzi et al., 2015) questioned microcredit's ability to work as a tool for development and transformation of society. ...

The Influence of Randomized Controlled Trials on Development Economics Research and on Development Policy
  • Citing Chapter
  • January 2020

... Carney et al. (2022) shows that the endowment effect inhibits demand for loans secured by a borrower's existing assets and that borrowers much prefer loans secured by the asset being financed. Jack et al. (2023) find that a reduction in the down payment on a water tank from 25% to 4% led to a significant increase in take-up with only a modest increase in default rates, which they attribute almost entirely to selection rather than moral hazard. This is in contrast with our findings that securing loans increases repayment primarily by a reduction in moral hazard. ...

Credit Access, Selection, and Incentives in a Market for Asset-Collateralized Loans: Evidence From Kenya
  • Citing Article
  • March 2023

Review of Economic Studies

... In various countries, rural-urban migration leads to labor shortages in rural agricultural sectors, such as in Vietnam (Bui and Hoang 2021), Thailand (Kwanmuang and Lertjunthuk 2021), Bangladesh (de Brauw et al. 2021), Malawi, and Ethiopia (Mueller et al. 2018). Similarly, labor supply becomes less elastic when workers believe they have superior options (Duflo et al. 2021) or when social stigma associated with farm work makes unemployment more attractive than farm work (Hull 2014;Mabiso and Benfica 2019;Maïga et al. 2015). Consequently, the production of highly labor-intensive crops heavily relies on migrant labor worldwide , Fabry et al. 2022Smith et al. 2022;Taylor and Charlton 2016). ...

The Impact of Free Secondary Education: Experimental Evidence from Ghana
  • Citing Article
  • January 2021

SSRN Electronic Journal

... Social innovation partnerships imply the co-creation of public knowledge goods by diverse actors using digital technologies and platforms to address educational challenges and opportunities (Peters and Besley, 2022). The exemplar is the Bridge International Academies, a Kenyan network of low-cost private schools that uses a standardized curriculum, delivered through technology-enabled classrooms, and supported by data-driven management in order to provide quality education to children from low-income families across Africa (Gray-Lobe et al., 2022). ...

Can Education be Standardized? Evidence from Kenya
  • Citing Article
  • January 2022

SSRN Electronic Journal

... (2) As already indicated, there is little prior work relating grants to other funding instruments or, more broadly, relating push to pull incentives in science funding. The COVID-19 pandemic spurred greater interest in the question of optimally combining push and pull incentives, perhaps via entirely novel instruments Athey et al., 2022;D'Souza et al., 2024). ...

Expanding capacity for vaccines against Covid-19 and future pandemics: a review of economic issues

Oxford Review of Economic Policy

... ICT is noticed to have an increasing impact on the agricultural sector and on the processes associated with food production (Blurton, 2010). It has been reported by Casaburi et al. (2014) that sending SMS messages with agricultural advice to smallholder farmers increased yields by 11.5% in extension area as against control group with no messages. Further, the large adoption and integration of ICTs has reduced information and transaction costs, improved service delivery, created job opportunities, and generated new revenue streams and saved resources (Anonymous, 2017). ...

4: Contract Farming and Agricultural Productivity in Western Kenya
  • Citing Chapter
  • January 2016

... In precision agriculture, drones improve variable-rate application methods, allowing resources to be applied optimally to maximize yields (Taseer, and Han, 2024) [100] . They also facilitate digital extension platforms by obtaining high-resolution images and video for remote training of farmers, knowledge dissemination, and campaigns (Fabregas et al., 2022) [34] . Their principal uses are: ...

Digital Agricultural Extension for Development

... While a growing literature studies the diffusion of agricultural innovation through social networks, the results of existing experimental studies are mixed, suggesting that diffusion may depend on a variety of factors, including the simplicity of the technology (Chandrasekhar et al. 2022), how novel it really is (Bridle et al. 2019), how profitable it is (Magnan et al. 2015), and the identity of the early adopters. 1 Meanwhile, the potential for negative externalities and network externalities has not, to our knowledge, yet been investigated. ...

Blue Spoons: Sparking Communication About Appropriate Technology Use
  • Citing Article
  • January 2022

SSRN Electronic Journal

... Vaccine markets present a stronger case for public subsidy than typical markets. Vaccines that prevent infection and transmission provide a positive epidemiological externality, which the recipient of a dose may be unwilling to pay for (see, e.g., Goodkin-Gold et al. 2024). Kremer and Snyder (2015) argue that drugs bought by consumers who have contracted the disease may extract more revenue from consumers than vaccines bought before. ...

Optimal Vaccine Subsidies for Epidemic Diseases
  • Citing Article
  • May 2022

Review of Economics and Statistics