Michael Connolly's research while affiliated with Dublin Zoo and other places

Publications (23)

Article
Full-text available
The chromosphere is a highly dynamic outer plasma layer of the Sun. Its physical processes accounting for the variability are poorly understood. We reconstructed the solar chromospheric flare index (SFI) to study the solar chromospheric variability from 1937 to 2020. The new SFI database is a composite record of the Astronomical Institute Ondřejov...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
In recent years, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratories (ESRL) have been launching very high quality and high resolution ozonesondes from eight sites across the globe: Antarctica; Greenland; American Samoa; Fiji; and several sites in USA (Alabama, California, Colorado and Hawai’i). These locations collectively cover the tropics, mid-latitudes and...
Article
Full-text available
The widely used Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) monthly temperature dataset is available in two formats—non-homogenized and homogenized. Since 2011, this homogenized dataset has been updated almost daily by applying the “Pairwise Homogenization Algorithm” (PHA) to the non-homogenized datasets. Previous studies found that the PHA can pe...
Article
Full-text available
The widely used Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) monthly temperature dataset is available in two formats - non-homogenized and homogenized. Since 2011, this homogenized dataset has been updated almost daily by applying the "Pairwise Homogenization Algorithm" (PHA) to the non-homogenized datasets. Previous studies found that the PHA can...
Article
Full-text available
In recent decades, efforts to investigate atmospheric circulation patterns have predominantly relied on either semi-empirical datasets (i.e., reanalyses) or modeled output (i.e., global climate models, GCMs). While both approaches can provide important insights, there is a need for more empirical data to supplement these approaches. In this paper,...
Article
Full-text available
In order to evaluate how much Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) has influenced Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature trends, it is important to have reliable estimates of both quantities. Sixteen different estimates of the changes in Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) since at least the 19th century were compiled from the literature. Half of these estim...
Preprint
Full-text available
To evaluate the role of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) on Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface air temperature trends it is important to have reliable estimates of both quantities. 16 different TSI estimates were compiled from the literature. 1/2 of these estimates are low variability and 1/2 are high variability. 5 largely-independent methods for estima...
Article
Full-text available
Concern for climate change is one of the drivers of new, transitional energy policies oriented towards economic growth and energy security, along with reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and preservation of biodiversity. Since 2010, the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) has been publishing annual Global Landscape of Climate Finance reports. Accord...
Article
Full-text available
In order to assess the merits of national climate change mitigation policies, it is important to have a reasonable benchmark for how much human-caused global warming would occur over the coming century with "Business-As-Usual" (BAU) conditions. However, currently, policymakers are limited to making assessments by comparing the Global Climate Model...
Article
Full-text available
Our response to Li & Yang (2019)’s comments on our 2018 paper, “Comparing the current and early 20th century warm periods in China”. We encourage readers of our original 2018 paper to read both Li & Yang's comments and our response for extra insights into some of the issues discussed there. We thank Li & Yang for initiating this additional discuss...
Article
Full-text available
Observed changes in Northern Hemisphere snow cover from satellite records were compared to those predicted by all available Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ("CMIP5") climate models over the duration of the satellite's records, i.e., 1967-2018. A total of 196 climate model runs were analyzed (taken from 24 climate models). Separate ana...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Using Greenpeace's published reports, statements and web-pages amongst other things, we carried out a detailed assessment of their approach to campaigning. We then compared their campaign claims to the relevant empirical evidence and scientific literature. We found that Greenpeace is a very successful business. Their business model can be summari...
Article
Full-text available
Most estimates of Chinese regional Surface Air Temperatures since the late-19th century have identified two relatively warm periods – 1920s–40s and 1990s–present. However, there is considerable debate over how the two periods compare to each other. Some argue the current warm period is much warmer than the earlier warm period. Others argue the earl...
Article
Full-text available
A new seasonal and annual dataset describing Arctic sea ice extents for 1901–2015 was constructed by individually re-calibrating sea ice data sources from the three Arctic regions (North American, Nordic and Siberian) using the corresponding surface air temperature trends for the pre-satellite era (1901–1978), so that the strong relationship betwee...
Article
Full-text available
Debate over what influence (if any) solar variability has had on surface air temperature trends since the 19th century has been controversial. In this paper, we consider two factors which may have contributed to this controversy: 1. Several different solar variability datasets exist. While each of these datasets is constructed on plausible grounds,...
Preprint
Full-text available
Two independent surveys have found that about 70% of the thermometer stations in the U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) dataset are currently poorly or badly sited. Previous investigations into how this poor siting has affected estimates of U.S. temperature trends have led to apparently contradictory conclusions. However, in this study, th...
Preprint
Full-text available
A previously-overlooked mechanism for energy transmission throughout the atmosphere is presented and characterised. This mechanism, which we have named pervection, involves the transmission of mechanical energy through a mass-in this case, the atmosphere. It is distinct from convection in that it does not require mass transport. It is also distinct...
Preprint
Full-text available
NASA GISS are currently the only group calculating global temperature estimates that explicitly adjust their weather station data for urbanization biases. In this study, their urbanization adjustment procedure was considered. A number of serious problems were found with their urbanization adjustments: 1.) The vast majority of their adjustments invo...
Preprint
Full-text available
Atmospheric profiles in North America during the period 2010-2011, obtained from archived weather balloon radiosonde measurements, were analysed in terms of changes of molar density (D) with pressure (P). This revealed a pronounced phase change at the tropopause. The air above the troposphere (i.e., in the tropopause/stratosphere) adopted a "heavy...
Preprint
Full-text available
In a companion paper, a pronounced phase transition was found to occur between the troposphere and the tropopause/stratosphere regions. In this paper, it is argued that this phase change is due to the formation of multimers of the main atmospheric gases (N2 and O2) in the tropopause/stratosphere. This has several implications for our current unders...
Preprint
Full-text available
A review of the various global (or hemispheric) millennial temperature reconstructions was carried out. Unlike previous reviews, technical analyses presented via internet blogs were considered in addition to the conventional peer-reviewed literature. There was a remarkable consistency between all of the reconstructions in identifying three climatic...
Preprint
Full-text available
The extent to which two widely-used monthly temperature datasets are affected by urbanization bias was considered. These were the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) and the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN). These datasets are currently the main data sources used to construct the various weather station-based global tem...
Preprint
Full-text available
Several studies have claimed that the warming bias introduced to global temperature estimates by urbanization bias is negligible. On the basis of this claim, none of the groups calculating global temperature estimates (except for NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies) explicitly correct for urbanization bias. However, in this article, by re-eval...

Citations

... In a few studies, statistically detected breaks without metadata confirmation are left out of consideration [16,17], partly because the limited possibilities of time series comparisons debilitated the reliability of statistical detection results in these studies. Finally, finding inconsistencies in break detection results, O'Neil et al. [18] compared the statistical break detection without metadata use to the use of imaginary maps citing an old economist [19]: "A man who uses an imaginary map, thinking that it is a true one, is likely to be worse off than someone with no map at all". ...
... However, we note that our preliminary analysis (not shown here) suggests that there might also be some systemic changes in these measurements associated with the troposphere/tropopause transition. We also note that the data from these sondes is sufficient to study the horizontal mass fluxes, as described by Connolly et al. (2021) [13]. ...
... However, even low-ECS GCMs need further evaluation because biases in some regions (e.g. on land) could be offset by opposite biases in other regions (e.g. on ocean). Furthermore, serious uncertainties remain in the solar forcing and in the temperature records themselves (Connolly et al. 2021;D'Aleo 2016;Watts 2022). These uncertainties question the warming trend reported by the available climate records and, directly or indirectly, the models themselves. ...
... Today more than half of all investments are concentrated in two technologies with rather significant disadvantages and problems that have not yet been solved [31], such as the relatively low Energy Return on Energy Invested relationship [32] and the problem of disposal of worn-out equipment [33,34]. Nevertheless, the total volume of investment in climate technologies has been growing, albeit intermittently, but noticeably, including from the private sector, which is explained by the desire to participate in the broadly subsidized sectors. ...
... Exposure of these minerals can be carried away by the wind of drylands and loose these precious resources. This Wetlands Ecol Manage can impact the billion-dollar global mineral market (Connolly et al. 2020). These can also lead to public health hazards, primarily respiratory problems, lung diseases, and related infections due to salt, sand, and dust storms (Tussupova et al. 2020). ...
... On the other hand, Soon et al. argue that much of the apparent "removal" of urbanization biases and poor station exposure biases via homogenization is a statistical artefact of the homogenization process which leads to the "blending" of non-climatic biases [18,19,38,39]. That is, if several of the reference neighboring stations are affected by gradual multidecadal biases such as urbanization bias then, when the sign and magnitude of a given breakpoint is being calculated by the homogenization algorithm, some of these biases may inadvertently be added to the homogenized record. ...
... Seasonal snow cover representing a major constituent of the hydrological cycle (Chahine 1992), the local water availability, groundwater rejuvenation, and the surface runoff also depend on it, especially in middle and high latitudes (Jain et al. 2008). For many societies, snowmelt is a crucial source of water (Connolly et al. 2019), and about one-sixth of the world's population relies on mountainous snowmelt (Barnett et al. 2005;Viviroli et al. 2007). The financial value of snow to human society is around trillions of dollars (Sturm et al. 2017). ...
... During this process, cities are developed in high-intensity patterns to accommodate large urban population concentrations, leading to changes in the characteristics of the land surface. This in turn changes the urban energy balance and causes a series of climate problems, including global warming (Wu et al., 2018), climate change (Soon et al., 2018), air pollution (Zeng et al., ), and traffic congestion (Wu et al., 2019). One of the most serious problems is the deterioration of the urban thermal environment (Li et al., 2018), which leads to the urban heat island (UHI) effect. ...
... However, negative PDO years since 1940 seem to roughly coincide with decreasing sea ice suggesting that this relationship would not hold since the mid-20th century. Furthermore, negative PDO phases coincide with colder years in the Arctic air temperature record except for the last warmer decades possibly reflecting overprinting of the global warming trend as suggested for AO ( figure 7(b), Connolly et al 2017). ...
... Several studies have emphasized that the term solar activity, actually comprises a multitude of different aspects of solar activity, and that often there can be subtle differences in the trends and variability of each aspect within and between consecutive solar cycles (Hoyt and Schatten, 1993;Livingston, 1994;Soon, Connolly, and Connolly, 2015;Connolly et al., V.M. Velasco Herrera et al. 2021). Therefore, after obtaining the new composite SFI record, it can be useful to compare it to other solar photospheric and chromospheric activity indices. ...