Maylene Y. Damoense’s research while affiliated with IIE MSA and other places

This paper provides a study of the theory and empirical evidence of intra-industry trade (IIT) and relates it specifically to South Africa’s automobile industry. The automobile industry in South Africa is a key sector within the national economy and has experienced increased trade and foreign investment in recent years, and thus represents an important case study of IIT. In view of this, the paper proposes a methodology that may be used in future to assess the pattern and determinants of IIT between South Africa and its main trading partners in the automobile industry. <br /

After years of intense protection, the South African automobile industry has undergone major policy reforms. This paper investigates the impact of policy reforms on the welfare of consumers, producers and society as a whole. The results of the simulation analysis indicate that, following the removal of domestic content requirements and reduction in tariffs, there has been significant reduction in consumer welfare loss and societal deadweight loss in the automobile industry, while tariff revenue to the South African government has significantly decreased. The results demonstrate that further reduction in tariffs on completely built-up units and completely knocked-down units is likely to result in further reduction in efficiency loss, thus leading to an improvement in the performance of South Africa's automobile industry.

Purpose This study seeks to examine empirically import demand for total pulses, chickpeas and lentils in India based on the concept of unit root and cointegration. Design/methodology/approach The Stock‐Watson dynamic OLS (DOLS) model – which is robust to small sample and eliminates simultaneity bias – is used to derive the long‐run price, income and urbanisation elasticities of import demand. The data covers the period 1970‐2000. Findings Results indicate that real GDP, relative price and urbanisation are the key determinants of import demand for pulses in India. The estimated long‐run elasticities of import demand with respect to income (relative price) are 0.4 (−1.7) for chickpeas, 0.56 (−0.87) for lentils and 0.36 (0.00) for total pulses. The estimated long‐run elasticities of import demand with respect to urbanisation are 9.9 for chickpeas, zero for lentils and 7.2 for total pulses. The policy implications of the results are discussed. Originality/value Provides evidence that the response of import demand for pulses to key determinants differ substantially from product to product.

A growing number of studies have concluded that South Africa has one of the highest cases of HIV infections in the world. With the epidemic continuing to evolve at an alarming rate, the government of South Africa has regarded the HIV/AIDS epidemic as a developmental and socio-economic policy issue. This study explores the impact of HIV/AIDS on food demand in South Africa. Food demand functions were estimated using time-series data for the period 1970 to 2000.Simulation analyses were undertaken to examine “with AIDS” and “without AIDS” scenarios. Unlike previous empirical findings, which dwell on the major negative impact of HIV/AIDS on food demand patterns in South Africa, this study foreshadows a more mixed outcome of both negative and positive impacts on the demand patterns for specific food types in South Africa as consequences of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and recommends policy changes.

South Africa has one of the highest cases of HIV infections in the world. With the epidemic continuing at an alarming rate, the government of South Africa has regarded the HIV/AIDS epidemic a developmental and socio-economic policy issue. The study explores the impact of HIV/AIDS on food demand in South Africa. The food demand function is specified and estimated using time-series data for the period 1970 to 2000. Simulation analysis is performed to examine the impact of ‘with AIDS’ and ‘without AIDS’ scenarios. The empirical results indicate that the HIV/AIDS epidemic could have a major impact on food demand patterns for selected food items in South Africa.

Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips stock price has been predicted using the difference between core and headline CPI in the United States. Linear trends in the CPI difference allow accurate prediction of the prices at a five to ten-year horizon.