Maxime Caron’s research while affiliated with Université Laval and other places

The increase in the frequency of floods, which is a projected consequence of climate change, can have wide-ranging health and economic impacts. To cope with these floods and to reduce their impacts, households can adopt some preventive behaviours. The main goal of this research was to compare the adoption of flood mitigation behaviours in three populations presenting distinctive characteristics with a valid and an invariant measure of behavioural adaptation, as well as a baseline measure (comparison group). The article also aims to test the moderated effect of having experienced a flood on the relation between the perception of risk of being flooded and the adoption of preventive behaviours. A survey was conducted in flood-prone areas and in some areas that were not at risk in Quebec, Canada, through phone interviews. Results confirmed that people who lived in an at-risk area and had experienced past flooding events are more inclined to adopt preventive behaviours than people who lived in an at-risk area but had never experienced such an event, and those who lived outside at-risk areas. In addition, our results indicate that the at-risk population who have never experienced a flood engage in few flood preventive behaviours. This is worrisome, as their rate of adopting adaptive behaviour is very similar to the one seen in populations living outside at-risk areas, despite the increased risk inherent to their situation. This could be partly explained by our data showing that around a quarter of the at-risk population did not know they were living in a flood-prone area. Our results show that communication efforts are necessary in order to better inform the population of the risk related to living in a flood-prone area and that incentives should be developed to help enhance the rate of preventive behaviours in at-risk populations having never experienced a flood.

As the literature on heat tolerance suggests that the elderly are generally more heat-intolerant and suffer more from the substantial impacts of excessive heat on human health, exacerbated by their higher rate of chronic diseases, it is important to learn how to better protect this vulnerable population. Moreover, many studies have shown that, despite their vulnerability, the elderly do not necessarily perceive themselves as being at risk or see heat waves as a danger to their health. This lower risk perception could hinder their adoption of adaptive behavior. Thus, using the theory of planned behavior and the health belief model, this study aimed at developing a more thorough understanding of what motivates older people from the province of Quebec, Canada, to adopt pro-adaptive behaviors to protect themselves from the heat, to better predict and explain their self-reported heat adaptation behaviors, and to identify their most important beliefs. In this quantitative study, a telephone sample of 1002 persons was used to explore the decision-making process of seniors in a way that led us to illustrate specific variables that could be targeted for awareness raising. All three variables of the theory of planned behavior (i.e., attitude, perceived social pressure, and perceived behavioral control) had a statistically significant impact on intention to adapt, while intention itself was linked to adoption of adaptive behaviors. This shows that increasing elderly people’s intention to adapt can have a positive impact on their adaptation to heat, which could help prevent this at-risk population from suffering the dangerous effects of heat waves.

Background In the current context of climate change, climate forecasts for the province of Quebec (Canada) are a lengthening of the thunderstorm season and an increase in episodes of intense precipitations. These changes in the distribution of precipitations could heighten the intensity or frequency of floods, a natural hazard that concerns 80% of Quebec’s riverside municipalities. For the health and safety of the at-risk population, it is very important to make sure they have acquired necessary adaptive behaviors against flooding hazard. However, there has been no assessment of these flood adaptation behaviors to date. Thus, the aim of this study was to develop and validate five indices of adaptation to flooding. Methods A sample of 1951 adults completed a questionnaire by phone. The questionnaire, specifically developed for this study, measured whether they did or did not adopt the behaviors that are proposed by public health officials to protect themselves against flooding. Results The results of the item, confirmatory factor, and multiple correspondence analyses contributed to the development of five indices corresponding to the adaptation behaviors to adopt according to the chronology of events: (a) pre-alert preventive behaviors, (b) behaviors to carry out after the alert is issued, (c) behaviors to adopt during a flood not requiring evacuation, (d) behaviors to adopt during a flood requiring evacuation, and (e) post-flood behaviors. The results of this study also showed that people who perceive a risk of flooding in their home in the next 5 years tend to adopt more preventive behaviors and adaptation behaviors than those who perceive little or no risk at all. They also reveal that people who feel more adverse effects on their physical or mental health tend to adopt more adaptive behaviors than those who feel little or no adverse effects on their health. Conclusion Across a series of psychometric analyses, the results showed that these flood adaptation indices could properly measure a vast range of adaptive behaviors according to the chronology of events. Therefore, researchers, public health agencies, and professionals can use them to monitor the evolution of individuals’ adaptive behaviors during floods. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-019-6564-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

------Introduction------ With climate change, the frequency and intensity of certain climate hazards such as heat waves and floods will increase, leading to greater impacts on the health of urban populations. Although cities can adopt different climate change adaptation (CCA) actions, little is known about the progress made by cities in this regard, given the lack of reliable, valid, and generalizable tools to measuring and evaluating (M&E) CCA, as well as organizational factors leading some cities to action and others to inaction. ------Objectives------ Because of the complexity to measure and attribute benefits to an isolated CCA action on a scale as vast as an ecological and social system, the main goal of M&E for adaptation is now shifting towards demonstrating to what extent CCA actions have changed the decision-making context for adaptation (Gorddard et al., 2016). The aims of this study are therefore to i) propose a set of validated and rigorous indicators to assess whether municipalities in Quebec (Canada) are preparing to adapt to climate change as well as taking actions to adapt; ii) unveil the factors and the mechanisms that moderate the relation between motivation and capacity to adapt and decision to adopt or not CCA actions; iii) identify the attitudes, beliefs and skills to be strengthened to develop targeted training content to reinforce adaptation practices. ------Method------ Four online surveys were administered during the summer of 2016 to four groups of municipal officials in Quebec (Canada): general managers, urban planners, public works managers, and emergency and civil protection officers. Municipalities’ adaptation to climate change was measured using indicators that assess adaptation practices and behaviours aimed at preparing for heat waves and flooding. Based on the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) (Ajzen, 2005) and the Health Belief Model (Rosenstock, 1974), we also measured potential psychosocial determinants of the municipalities' adaptation behaviours: behavioural intentions; behavioural, normative and control beliefs; and perceived risk for the municipality to experiment with these climate hazards, severity of the damage, effectiveness of the proposed adaptation measures. ------Findings------ Results of the path analyses indicate that the severity of potential damage to a municipality, the behavioural beliefs toward the adoption of CCA behaviours, and the control beliefs were the main predictors of CCA. Conversely, social norms (the sensitivity to the opinion of others or the propensity to conform to expectations) never emerged as a significant determinant of intentions. Finally, control beliefs had a moderating effect between municipalities’ intention to adapt and their decision to adopt or not CCA actions for general managers and emergency and civil protection officers, but not for urban planners and public works managers. ------Significance of the work for policy and practice------ The use of a theoretical framework based on a theory such as the TPB allows the identification of values, rules, norms, attitudes, barriers, as well as their influence on the mechanisms of adaptation in the municipal context. A better understanding of these determinants can help in the identification of indicators that will allow to demonstrate to what extent a CCA action has changed the decision-making context for adaptation, therefore helping monitoring progress towards adaptation. Used in a continuous learning mode, these indicators will help in the design of adaptation strategies, such as how to act in accordance with the rules in force, or which attitudes to strengthen among municipal officials.

Ce qui compte ne peut pas toujours être compté, et ce qui peut être compté ne compte pas forcément. » Ainsi parlait Albert Einstein, sans se douter à quel point cette phrase trouverait un écho particulier sur le plan de la mesure des progrès en adaptation aux changements climatiques, notamment en ce qui concerne les municipalités. Où en sommes-nous à cet égard ? Devant l'accroissement des risques climatiques et de leurs impacts dans les zones urbaines, il est primordial d'en savoir davantage sur les actions entreprises par les municipalités pour s'adapter aux changements climatiques, de même que sur les facteurs qui en poussent certaines à l'action, alors que d'autres préfèrent pour l'instant demeurer au point neutre. Ainsi, la première section de cet article aborde la question des défis associés à la mesure de l'adaptation aux changements climatiques. La seconde montre qu'en dépit des écueils, une mesure du niveau d'adaptation des municipalités est néanmoins possible, et porteuse d'enseignement précieux. La troisième se penche plus spécifiquement sur les moteurs et les freins de l'adaptation aux changements climatiques. Enfin, la section finale propose des pistes d'actions à privilégier.