Matthias Lüdeke's research while affiliated with Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and other places
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Publications (74)
With global warming, many climate extremes are becoming more frequent, often co-occurring, or repeatedly occurring in consecutive years. However, only limited studies have investigated these changes of climate extremes together. We study these changes in Europe for the last seven decades (1950–2019) based on 39 climate indices to identify climate e...
Nature-based Solutions (NbS), inspired or supported by nature, aim to address societal challenges in a fast-changing environment via an integrated and sustainable approach. Effective implementation of such intervention certainly requires compliance with specific societal configurations in different geographies. Here two cases of NbS to hydrological...
Combining global gridded population and fossil fuel based CO2 emission data at 1 km scale, we investigate the spatial origin of CO2 emissions in relation to the population distribution within countries. We depict the correlations between these two datasets by a quasi-Lorenz curve which enables us to discern the individual contributions of densely a...
Mega-droughts can cause disruption to the affected society sparking a transition. We explore the causes and effects of the 2015−2016 mega-drought in Colombia. Using the multi-level perspective as a framework, we found that the mega-drought sparked an energy transition in Colombia whose dynamics were impacted both by the institutionalization of nich...
Coastal areas are urbanizing at unprecedented rates, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Combinations of long-standing and emerging problems in these urban areas generate vulnerability for human well-being and ecosystems alike. This baseline study provides a spatially explicit global systematization of these problems into typical urba...
In the face of increasing socioeconomic and climatic pressures in growing cities, it is rational for managers to consider multiple approaches for securing water availability. One often disregarded option is the promotion of reforestation in source regions supplying important quantities of atmospheric moisture transported over long distances through...
Urban areas play an unprecedented role in potentially mitigating climate change and supporting sustainable development. In light of the rapid urbanisation in many parts on the globe, it is crucial to understand the relationship between settlement size and CO2 emission efficiency of cities. Recent literature on urban scaling
properties of emissions...
Combining global gridded population and fossil fuel based CO2 emission data at 1km scale, we investigate the spatial origin of CO2 emissions in relation to the population distribution within countries. We depict the correlations between these two datasets by a quasi-Lorenz curve which enables us to discern the individual contributions of densely an...
Urbanization as an inexorable global trend stresses the need to identify cities which are eco-efficient. These cities enable socioeconomic development with lower environmental burden, both being multidimensional concepts. Based on this approach, we benchmark 88 European cities using (i) an advanced version of regression residual ranking and (ii) Da...
The abundant evapotranspiration provided by the Amazon forests is an important component of the hydrological cycle, both regionally and globally. Since the last century, deforestation and expanding agricultural activities have been changing the ecosystem and its provision of moisture to the atmosphere.
However, it remains uncertain how the ongoing...
Vulnerability analysis and concept for adaptation to climate change in Berlin, Germany. [Report in German language]
Im Dezember 2014 hat die Senatsverwaltung für Stadtentwicklung und Umwelt ein sektoral ausgerichtetes "Konzept zur Anpassung an die Folgen des Klimawandels in Berlin" (AFOK) in Auftrag gegeben. Das vom Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolge...
Open Access: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10113-014-0746-1
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This paper presents a method for the analysis of socio-ecological patterns of vulnerability of people being at risk of losing their livelihoods as a conseque...
Extensive research on geodata uncertainty has been conducted in the past decades, mostly related to modeling, quantifying, and communicating uncertainty. But findings on if and how users can incorporate this information into spatial analyses are still rare. In this paper we address these questions with a focus on land cover change analysis. We cond...
In order to achieve meaningful climate protection targets at the global scale, each country is called to set national energy policies aimed at reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions. By calculating the monthly heating energy demand of dwellings in the Netherlands, our case study country, we contrast the results with the corresponding aspi...
http://www.pik-potsdam.de/%7Eluedeke/lit/klimaanpassung_lhp.pdf
Motivated by an inconclusive debate over implications of resource scarcity for violent conflict, and common reliance on national data and linear models, we investigate the relationship between socio-ecological vulnerability and armed conflict in global drylands on a subnational level. Our study emanates from a global typology of smallholder farmers...
The authors contribute to the discussion on suburban developments by way of modeling the underlying social dynamics between suburban actors in two European suburban areas: the Wirral (Liverpool), UK and Leipzig, Germany. Data from questionnaires carried out in the two study areas are used to model social attraction and repulsion: that is, social se...
A methodology to assess future development in patterns of vulnerability is presented which can support the assessment of global policies with regard to their impacts on specific vulnerabilities on the regional or local scale. Patterns of vulnerability, formalized by vulnerability profiles (e.g. for the livelihoods of dryland smallholder farmers) we...
The Sustainable Hyderabad Project has over the course of its implementation generated knowledge towards improved understanding of the problems of climate change and energy efficiency in the complex transformation process that Hyderabad is undergoing. It has further identified potentials to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and vulnerabilities of va...
Increases in animal products consumption and the associated environmental consequences have been a matter of scientific debate for decades. Consequences of such increases include rises in greenhouse gas emissions, growth of consumptive water use, and perturbation of global nutrients cycles. These consequences vary spatially depending on livestock t...
This paper presents an approach to automated identification of slum area
change patterns in Hyderabad, India, using multi-year and multi-sensor
very high resolution satellite imagery. It relies upon a
lacunarity-based slum detection algorithm, combined with Canny- and
LSD-based imagery pre-processing routines. This method outputs plausible
and spat...
Bridging the global‐regional divide inclimate impact research for urban areas means to establish a comprehensive picture which covers all urban agglomeration of the world. This is different from the case of, e.g., hydrological impact modeling where coarse‐scaled (spatial and functional) global models and detailed regional studies have to be brought...
This paper presents an approach to qualitative and spatial assessment of slum population numbers in Hyderabad, India using circle-based population data from the Census of India and results of the analysis of high resolution QuickBird satellite image data (2003) derived from automatic line detection and lacunarity algorithm. This approach provides p...
“Think global, act local” is a phrase often used in sustainability debates. Here, we explore the potential of regions to go for local supply in context of sustainable food consumption considering both the present state and the plausible future scenarios.
We analyze data on the gridded crop calories production, the gridded livestock calories produc...
Specific processes that shape the vulnerability of socio-ecological
systems to climate, market and other stresses derive from diverse
background conditions. Within the multitude of vulnerability-creating
mechanisms, distinct processes recur in various regions inspiring
research on typical patterns of vulnerability. The vulnerability
patterns displa...
We analyze the shortcomings of epistemological approaches to prediction which are oriented at the paradigmatic case of classical mechanics which appears as a more or less singular stroke of luck in the history of science. Then we discuss the role of quantitative models in foresight studies. After a short overview on the four main approaches to fore...
In coupled human-environment systems where well established and proven general theories are often lacking cluster analysis provides the possibility to discover regularities – a first step in empirically based theory building. The aim of this report is to share the experiences and knowledge on cluster analysis we gained in several applications in th...
Smallholder livelihoods in the Peruvian Altiplano are frequently threatened by weather extremes, including droughts, frosts and heavy rainfall. Given the persistence of significant undernourishment despite regional development efforts, we propose a cluster approach to evaluate smallholders’ vulnerability to weather extremes with regard to food secu...
A new modelling approach to urban sprawl dynamics is introduced which allows representing qualitative knowledge on relations
between moving actor populations and properties of locations. The results of this Qualitative Attractiveness Migration (QuAM)
Model are scenario-like sets of possible future developments of the urban system, much in contrast...
Drylands display specific vulnerability-creating mechanisms which threaten ecosystems and human well-being. The upscaling of successful interventions to reduce vulnerability arises as an important, but challenging aim, since drylands are not homogenous. To support this aim, we present the first attempt to categorise dryland vulnerability at a globa...
The frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events over Hyderabad, India, are often the cause of devastating floods in
its urban and peri-urban areas. This paper introduces a quantitative approach to assessing urban vulnerability to floods in
Hyderabad, identifying informal settlements via high resolution satellite photography and through the d...
Recent scientific reports have shown that we are living in an
era in which human activities are having a negative influence
on the earth system on an unprecedented scale. The provision
of ecosystem services, such as food production, clean air and
water or a stable climate, is under severe and growing pres
-
sure. The rate of global environmental ch...
This chapter contains section titled:
The aim of this paper is to find major influencing factors of CO 2 emissions from road traffic in urban areas. The approach of the study involved a statistical analysis on the basis of the formerly 23 urban districts of the German capital of Berlin. Correlation and regression analyses of empirical data from the settlement structure, the traffic str...
A qualitative model of smallholder agriculture with a few core variables and two allocation rules for labour and investment in agricultural resources was developed to cover spatial heterogeneity in Northeast Brazil. This region is characterised by large natural and socio-economic variance, recurrent droughts and widespread rural poverty. The result...
Das vorliegende UFZ-Diskussionspapier ist die Dokumentation des Workshops Schrumpfung und Urban Sprawl, der am 3. November 2003 am UFZ stattfand. Es führt damit eine Diskussions- und Forschungslinie fort, die in den 1990er Jahren durch Forscher und Praktiker aus unterschiedlichen Einrichtungen der Region Halle-Leipzig begründet wurde. Im Arbeitskre...
Ecological and environmental sciences need new approaches to meet a two-fold challenge: first, analysing the tightly coupled system of human civilisation and its natural environment and, secondly, generating action-oriented knowledge in order to deal with global change. The syndrome approach meets this challenge by formulating a set of typical prob...
An algorithm is developed to calculate the seasonal carbon exchange flux between the living parts of the vegetation and the atmosphere by using monthly time series of NDVI satellite data, air temperature and photosynthetically active radiation. The algorithm is based on already-existing models of the optical and physiological properties of the plan...
In order to assess the potential impact of climate change on terrestrial equilibrium net primary production (NPP), information about the sensitivity of terrestrial NPP to climate change is needed. A novel approach to the definition of climate sensitivity is introduced; it does not depend on specific (and uncertain) scenarios, but rather describes t...
We present a novel methodology to integrate qualitative knowledge from different case studies on Global Change related issues
into a single framework. The method is based on the concept of qualitative differential equations (QDEs) which represents
a mathematically well-defined approach to investigate classes of ordinary differential equations (ODEs...
A qualitative functional analysis of the archetypical cause-effect pattern constituting social and environmental degradation in uncontrolled and rapidly growing cities (Favela Syndrome) is performed. This analysis is carried out in the framework of the Syndrome Concept which aims to describe the total complex of present Global Change by a limited n...
Starting from the basic assumption of the syndrome concept that essentially all of the present problematic civilization–nature interactions on the global scale can be subdivided into a limited number of typical patterns, the analysis of the response of these patterns (syndromes) to climate change can make a major contribution to climate impact rese...
A novel transdisciplinary approach to investigate Global Change (GC) is presented. The approach rests on the decomposition of the intrigue dynamics of GC into patterns of civilization–nature interactions (syndromes) by an iterative scientific process of observations, data and system theoretical analyses, and modelling attempts. We illustrate the ap...
Within the global carbon cycle the world's ecosystems are the most sensitive part with respect to environmental change. Seasonal changes in the atmospheric CO₂ content provide important clues to the understanding of the carbon exchange fluxes, which determine the global carbon budget. We developed the Frankfurt Biosphere Model (FBM) in order to sim...
An algorithm based on a three-spline function fitted to measured NDVI courses (normalized difference vegetation index) was developed to analyze a given NDVI annual course with respect to leaf shooting and leaf abscission times of deciduous vegetation. In contrast to algorithms which are based on modified second derivatives of the NDVI time course t...
Bioenergy as a substitute for fossil energy is regarded a possibility to reduce the energy related carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere, because ‘the carbon, which is set free from biomass combustion, is taken up again by regrowing plants and thus the carbon cycle of bioenergy is closed’, as it is often argued. In a more detailed analysis of...
The response of the vegetation and soils of the higher latitude forests and tundra ecosystems to an anticipated climate change is investigated using two alternative approaches to calculate the resulting change in the total carbon content (TCC) of the vegetation and the soils: On the one hand a BGC (bio-geochemical-cycle) model, in this case the FBM...
To assess the role of the boreal and temperate forests and the tundra ecosystems in a future CO2-induced climate change, the Frankfurt biosphere model (FBM) was applied to the 3 × CO2 climate as calculated by the GCM of the MPI für Meteorologie in Hamburg. The FBM predicts on a 1° × 1° spatial grid the seasonal and perannual course of leaf biomass...
A general formalism of the time evolution of an ensemble of forests within an ecological province is developed using the formalism of the Leslie matrix. It could be shown that the present distribution of forest age classes for the United States, Canada, Europe, or the Former Soviet Union does not correspond to a quasi-stationary state. The present...
The rôle of the temperate and boreal forests as a global CO2 source or sink is examined, both for the present time and for the next hundred years. The results of the Forest Resource Assessment for 1990 of the Economic Comission for Europe and the Food and Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations (1992) serve as the main database in this stud...
Points out that differences in the background of the working
population, are often made responsible for the observed inequality of
income distribution. Explores whether the observed distribution in
incomes in countries such as the Federal Republic of Germany (West and
East), Great Britain, Sweden, the United States and Brazil could not be
the resul...
Carbon exchange fluxes of terrestrial ecosystems are expected to depend on the internal dynamics of C stocks in vegetation and soils, on nutrient availability, and on the local climatic conditions/weather. The model structure which we present focuses on the internal dynamics in the living vegetation. The mathematical description is derived from two...
An algorithm is developed to calculate the seasonal carbon exchange flux between the living parts of the vegetation and the atmosphere by using monthly time series of NDVI satellite data, air temperature and photosynthetically active radiation. The algorithm is based on already-existing models of the optical and physiological properties of the plan...
The context-dependence of social-ecological dynamics makes it extremely difficult to draw general conclusions about determinants of effective environmental governance. Generic design factors can be too abstract to be applied to concrete environmental problems because every case is different. However, it also appears that many cases of (un)successfu...
In this chapter we discuss urban sprawl as a process that results from the decisions of multiple actors. Amongst the many possibilities for decisions taken by these actors we concentrate on locational decisions (see, e.g., Colombino and Locatelli 2001) which - as an aggregated effect - change the conditions of the location for subsequent actors' lo...
1. Abstract This data driven analysis integrates the concept of vulnerability in a broader context to capture how vulnerability to adverse global environmental conditions and change in drylands relates to conflict incidence, and can be used to statistically reproduce them. Drylands occupy 41% of Earth's land area and are home to over 2 billion peop...
There are few direct linkages between the biophyscial and socioeconomic drivers of desertification at the international scale, but desertification clearly has many international dimensions. International agreements, insitutions, and socioeconomic processes all frame the problem, and some large-scale bio- physical processes such as climate, soil, an...
Citations
... Temperature extremes are becoming increasingly common in unstable climates [1][2][3]. This is a public health concern [4], but for biota in general, global warming is even more dangerous and unpredictable [5][6][7], especially for polar ecosystems including the Arctic [1,8,9], where climate change is predicted to be stronger than at low latitudes [10]. ...
... As cities become even larger, the scaling impact of the city size on economic, social, and infrastructure indicators will become more crucial. For example, large cities tend to attract more migrants and highly skilled individuals and have higher levels of wealth and innovation but are also prone to more crime, congestion, road accidents, and some diseases (6,(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14). Although the impact of city size in terms of some indicators remains unclear for example, in terms of CO 2 emissions (14-17) and some indicators rely on how cities are defined, urban scaling studies provide a way to quantify the impact of city size on urban indicators (18)(19)(20). ...
Reference: Scaling of the morphology of African cities
... This paper focuses on the following question: to what extent can one observe ruptures in the fabric of industrial societies conducive to such deep sustainability turn? Whereas multi-system dynamics have been gaining increased attention in transitions studies (Rosenbloom, 2020;Markard et al., 2020;, the landscape in which these systems are situated has been scarcely studied to date (see Antadze and McGowan 2017;Weng et al. 2020;Feola 2020, for exceptions). At the same time, empirical evidence on the matter in other fields remains highly fragmented and mixed, often focusing on different parts of the puzzle within particular disciplinary boundaries (Clark and Harley, 2020). ...
... Urban-induced vulnerabilities can be viewed from a contextual lens whereby as climate change impacts may trigger it, it is a part of a broader process of social development and political and institutional change (Mansur et al., 2016). Households residing in informal settlements are disproportionately affected by climate change impacts because of their exposure to hazards by living in unsafe conditions, and lack of hazard-reducing infrastructure and adaptive capacity (Sterzel et al., 2020). While urban areas are not prone to disasters by nature, the socio-economic processes around urbanization increase disaster vulnerability (United Nations Environment Programme [UNEP], 2014). ...
... Ward's method reduces the increase in the total within-cluster sum of squared error, which is proportional to the squared Euclidean distance between cluster centres (Murtagh & Legendre, 2011). We measured dissimilarity using Euclidian distances (Bouguettaya, Yu, Liu, Zhou, & Song, 2015;Walther, Lüdeke, & Gudipudi, 2019). ...
... De otra parte, la deforestación creciente en la Amazonia colombiana altera el equilibrio hídrico (Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales-IDEAM, 2019; Weng et al., 2019), afecta la calidad del agua (Wu et al., 2021) y disminuye el caudal de las fuentes que proveen del líquido vital a los pobladores (Corpoamazonia, 2009;Gobernación del Caquetá, 2020). Por ello, en el territorio del Caquetá se observa una disminución de las corrientes de agua abastecedoras de los acueductos municipales (Gobernación del Caquetá, 2020). ...
... Different conceptual approaches exist to assess dynamic process patterns in a spatially explicit manner. Such an interpretation framework is provided by the syndromes approach, which has been developed in the context of global change research (CasselGintz and Petschel-Held, 2000;Lüdeke et al., 2004;Petschel-Held et al., 1999; Schellnhuber et al., 1997) and is considered an appropriate method for application in dryland science (Reynolds et al., 2011). The aim of the syndromes approach is to conduct a placebased, integrated assessment by describing change processes by archetypical, dynamic, co-evolutionary patterns of human-nature interactions instead of by regional or sectoral analyses. ...
... Quantitative analyses of SMCs are understudied in the sustainability literature. However, some exceptions include benchmarking studies across large and small cities, such as the eco-efficiency study of 88 European cities (from 300,000 to over 1 million inhabitants; Gudipudi et al., 2018), the effect of city size on municipal solid waste generation in 930 cities in Poland (from less than 2000 to over 100,000 inhabitants; Wowrzeczka, 2021), and the carbon intensity variation between Beijing, China (20 million inhabitants) and Issaquah, USA (30,000 inhabitants) by Chen and Chen (2017). To date, the limited coverage of SMCs requires remedying if we are to understand their unique contexts toward dematerialization and decarbonization. ...
... They provide 50% of carbon stored in plant biomass (Abbas et al., 2020) and 32% in the soil (Pan et al., 2011). Furthermore, the interference of water balance through evapotranspiration and moisture recycling are among the major contributions of rainforests (Weng et al., 2018) and, in these ecosystems, vegetation and litter cover controls water erosion. Although the role of biodiversity (in this case forests) in supplying these and other NCPs has been demonstrated, i.e., the interdependence between biodiversity and NCPs, the effectiveness of actions to confront the impacts of current land-use trends is unclear and does not yet guarantee human well-being and the fulfillment of the sustainability agenda (Guerry et al., 2015;Manes et al., 2022). ...
... Some authors claim that larger cities emit fewer GHG emissions than smaller ones [71]. Therefore, the further analysis of urbanisation effects can be more detailed according to the structure of cities and their size in the Baltic States. ...