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4 Citations
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Publications (50)
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The literature on negative campaigning has primarily focused on electoral contests between two candidates for a single office. In multiparty contests the candidates, or parties, face more options, i.e., they not only decide whether to 'go negative' but also which candidate (or candidates) are their target. We propose a spatial model of negative campaigning in multicandidate contests in which the candidates choose whether to conduct i) a negative or positive campaign and ii) whether to campaign on policy or valence issues. The model offers a number of novel predictions, e.g. that candidates have an incentive to attack ideologically similar parties, extreme candidates have a lower incentive to go negative, and that the decision to campaign on policy or valence is influenced by the ideological proximity of the other candidates. We examine the model's prediction in the context of U.S. primary elections.
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10 Citations
We present a model in which we reformulate and extend Albert Hirschman's Exit, Voice and Loyalty (EVL) argument to examine the role of power in the relationship between states and their citizens. Our basic model and its various extensions reaffirm some of the ideas found in Hirschman's original analysis, but contradict several others. They also highlight several points that have been previously overlooked or underemphasized by scholars employing the EVL framework to substantive areas in political science. After presenting the model and discussing its general implications, we apply it to the empirical case of democratic transitions. By explaining the observed relationship between (i) economic development and democracy and (ii) the abundance of natural resources and authoritarianism, our model is able to combine the results from two largely distinct literatures within the same theoretical framework. Our model also provides important insights for the literatures addressing the role of foreign aid, inequality, and economic performance in the democratization process.
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1 Citation
What determines the number of parties in a particular country? Us-ing a new dataset that covers all legislative and presidential elections during democratic periods in 199 countries between 1946 and 2000, I analyze those factors influencing the number of parties in a given coun-try. To a large extent, this work builds on a growing empirical and theoretical literature that has developed over the last several years. I show that much of this existing research employs flawed statistical specifications that leave the results open to question. I take account of these problems and extend these studies in several new directions. I argue that social forces are the primary factor influencing the number of parties in a country and find that the accuracy with which party sys-tems reflect existing social cleavages increases as electoral institutions become more permissive.
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Do democracies and autocracies militarily intervene in di¤erent types of civil conict? Building on insights from Selectorate Theory, I derive a number of hypotheses linking third-parties'domestic institutions to the types of civil conict in which they intervene. I test these hypotheses using data on civil conicts and military interventions from 1945 to 1999. The empirical analyses strongly con…rm my theoretical predictions. Speci…cally, I …nd that an increase in the probability of a successful outcome and the existence of an ethnic-tie between the third-party and civil conict states make it more likely that democracies will intervene in civil conicts; these factors have no, or a signi…cantly smaller, e¤ect on the intervention decisions of autocracies. I also …nd evidence that autocracies are more likely to intervene when there are lootable natural resources such as diamonds in a conict state; in contrast, there is no signi…cant e¤ect of lootable resources on democracies'intervention decisions.
Citations (39)
... 18. In so doing, I follow the advice of Berry et al. (2012) and Clark and Golder (2023) to test the conditional theory at hand as much as possible from different angles. ...
- Citing Book
November 2023
... To observe any potential moderating effects of culture at the cross-national level and government policy at the subnational level, we also introduce two-and three-way interactions among human capital (education), the entrepreneurial culture of immigrants' home country, and the mandatory E-Verify requirements at the state level in the host country. Rather than existing qualitative methods for studying intersectionality, this study adopts the best practice recommendations of Block et al. (2023), who provide an excellent description of how to use an interaction method to study intersectional effects in quantitative research. ...
- Citing Article
January 2023
The Journal of Politics
... If backed up by robust oversight and civic safeguards to prevent manipulation and fraud Atkeson et al., 2009;Lewandowsky et al., 2017), technological innovations enable qualitatively better electoral reforms. Minimizing the risks associated with complex ballot procedures they can be instrumentalized in more efficient electoral systems from the PMM family to increase involvement and empowerment of voters (Bormann & Golder, 2022;Farrell, 2011;Neto & Cox, 1997). ...
- Citing Article
August 2022
Electoral Studies
... Older theories of secularization suggest that religious practice should decline in relation to human development (Gaskins et al., 2013;Gill, 2021). Although long-standing trends in state religious policy (SRP) have drastically decreased the popularity of such theories, scholars continue to find support for a less-sweeping trend toward secularization in modernizing environments (Fox, 2016;Stolz, 2020;Dhima and Golder, 2021). But while religious practice has declined in certain contexts, religious minorities have faced increased discrimination by both government and societal actors (Fox, 2013(Fox, , 2020Fox et al., 2018). ...
- Citing Article
January 2020
Politics and Religion
... (Boas and Hidalgo, 2011;Di Tella and Franceschelli, 2011;Durante and Knight, 2012;Gehlbach and Sonin, 2014;Stanig, 2015;Qian and Yanagizawa-Drott, 2017;Lai, 2025) and contributes to the burgeoning body of work on the influence of autocracies abroad (DellaVigna et al., 2014;Peisakhin and Rozenas, 2018;Bail et al., 2020). Finally, this study joins a growing body of scholarship incorporating automated sentiment analysis into applied research (Crabtree et al., 2020;Lajevardi, 2021;Osmundsen et al., 2021). ...
- Citing Article
- Full-text available
December 2019
The Journal of Politics
... At the current level, previous manifesto research related to sentiment/emotion analysis revolves around various European parities' campaign materials [Crabtree et al., 2018, Jentsch et al., 2021, Koljonen et al., 2022, of which many show evidence that the party's status in government and ideological positioning have a standing influence on these issues. Based on these findings, the study establishes two hypotheses (H) as follows: ...
- Citing Preprint
- File available
August 2018
... As argued by Hirschman (1970), citizens facing a government policy that negatively impacts their well-being respond by utilizing either "voice" or "exit." Voice refers to an individual seeking to change a dissatisfactory policy by "persuading" the government, while exit refers to an individual accepting a deleterious change but altering his or her behavior (Clark, Golder, and Golder 2017). Due to transaction costs and liquidity constraints, homeowners have lower mobility than renters, making them more inclined to attempt to influence and maintain their property's value through "voice" rather than "exit." ...
- Citing Article
March 2017
British Journal of Political Science
... The use of the L-T Index in the literature show a great variety when used to determine the party system competitiveness (Brambor et al., 2007;Chhibber and Nooruddin, 2004;Kuenzi and Lambright, 2005;Laakso and Taagepera, 1979;Lijphart, 1994;Mozaffar and Scarrit, 2005;Neto and Cox, 1997;Paskhina and Telin, 2017;Schleiter and Voznoya, 2014;Taagepera and Shugart, 1989) comparison of party systems (Lijphart et al., 1999). The index has also been employed in the following contexts: changes in a party system (Quinn, 2013); the effects of electoral misconduct on a party system (Donno and Roussias, 2012); the relationship between a party system and an electoral system (Croissant and Völkel, 2012;Ferland, 2014;Laakso and Taagepera, 1981); the relationship between ENP in the previous election and the subsequent emergence of new parties (Kselman et al., 2016); coalitions in elections (Cox and Schoppa, 2002); presidential elections (ENPRES) (Hicken and Stoll, 2017;Ordeshook and Shvetsova, 1994); and the effect of presidential elections on legislative elections, and thus on the electoral system in certain countries (Ferrara, 2011). ...
- Citing Article
January 2006
Electoral Studies
... Elections (whether organized in a modern setting or not) have been an integral part of African history and can be traced back to the precolonial era when "some [African] societies took decisions through voting either by representation or through a general assembly" (Sule & Sambo, 2019: 109). A historical study in Africa records that 321 legislative and 167 presidential elections were held both in authoritarian and democratic settings between the period of independence (1946) and 1996 (Golder & Wantcheko, 2004 Huntington's (1991) third wave of democratization in Africa. Consequently, the Beninese citizens protested against the corrupt dictatorial rule of Mathieu Kerekou and the protest yielded a "National Conference of Active Forces of the Nation" which seized power from the dictator and launched a transition to democracy (Diamond & Plattner, 1999). ...
- Citing Chapter
September 2004
... First, it primarily applies to issue stances that are widely perceived as extreme or deviant. Second, discounting is most likely among moderate conservative voters, as left-leaning voters are less likely to seriously consider supporting the far right (Golder, 2016) and extreme-right voters are unlikely to penalize extreme positions, as they may be dismissive of liberal norms surrounding those issues. This leaves moderate conservative voters, who may share some policy stances and grievances with the far right but are not primarily attracted to the party by more marginally held cultural grievances (Halikiopoulou and Vlandas, 2020), as the most likely to discount extreme positions. ...
- Citing Article
May 2016
Annual Review of Political Science