February 2006
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46 Reads
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6 Citations
Large market-wide price movements cannot be completely diversified away by investors. Consequently, expected returns should be higher for stocks that crash heavily during market crashes or stocks that have their best payoffs dur-ing market booms. Over the period 1967 to 2004, a zero-investment strategy isolating crash risk returns 6% per annum and a strategy isolating boom risk delivers 7.5%. These returns are not reward for bearing overall market, size, book-to-market or momentum risk. Intriguingly, these effects are concentrated in the period following the crash of Oct 19th, 1987 and the returns to the crash strategy can be predicted by the skew in implied volatilities for S&P 500 index put options.