Martin Gilens’s research while affiliated with University of California, Los Angeles and other places

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Publications (36)


Research design diagram.
Note. Adapted with permission from Brock‐Petroshius 2024.
(1) After being debriefed on the study, three participants requested for their data to be removed; as such, the baseline and post‐survey samples reported throughout the manuscript omit these three observations. (2) Prior to a door knock being attempted, 349 subjects (5%) were removed from the voter file either because they died or moved out of the county.
Durability of deep canvassing effects on anti‐carceral policy opinions. [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]
Note. This figure shows the estimated ITT effects on each outcome when comparing the race‐absent and race‐explicit conditions to the placebo as well as when comparing the two treatments to each other. Thick lines are one standard deviation, thin lines are 95% confidence intervals.
Durability of deep canvassing effects on carceral attitudes. [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]
Note. This figure shows the estimated ITT effects on each outcome when comparing the race‐absent and race‐explicit conditions to the placebo as well as when comparing the two treatments to each other. Thick lines are one standard deviation, thin lines are 95% confidence intervals.
Durability of deep canvassing effects on racial attitudes. [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]
Note. This figure shows the estimated ITT effects on each outcome when comparing the race‐absent and race‐explicit conditions to the placebo as well as when comparing the two treatments to each other. Thick lines are one standard deviation, thin lines are 95% confidence intervals.
Can Deep Canvassing Promote Anti‐Carceral Attitudes? A Field Experiment
  • Article
  • Publisher preview available

June 2025

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11 Reads

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Martin Gilens

Passing and implementing policies that will advance racial equity requires adequate levels of public support. Yet, interventions designed to inform citizens and cultivate such support are rarely successful, especially on highly salient, racialized issues like incarceration and policing. This challenge is further amplified when explicitly discussing racism, which often triggers adverse reactions or backlash. We conducted a pre‐registered, randomized, placebo‐controlled field experiment making use of deep canvassing conversations—an intensive intervention that has proven effective in shifting views on other highly salient issues. Half of our treatment conversations explicitly discussed anti‐Black racism in the criminal legal system, while the other half took a race‐absent approach. Outcomes were assessed across three follow‐up surveys. We found that both deep canvassing conditions increased support for jail decarceration and other anti‐carceral policies. These effects were evident 1 week after the intervention but were limited in their durability after exposure to a counter message and after 6 months post‐treatment. Given the general lack of effective persuasion methods in real‐world contexts that can endure for even a week, deep canvassing continues to prove a promising method. In contrast to prior research commonly demonstrating null or backlash results from discussing racism, these findings suggest that there are ways to discuss racism that can effectively build support for racial equity policies and change related attitudes. Deep canvassing is not a panacea. Understanding the tradeoffs and limitations of both race‐explicit and race‐absent approaches helps to inform the strategic choices of organizers, advocates, and scholars.

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Racial Attitudes and Views of Disaster

December 2024

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4 Reads

Political Research Quarterly

As disasters become more frequent and costly, understanding attitudes toward government disaster policy becomes critically important. Scholars have explored the racialized nature of specific disasters such as Hurricane Katrina. But studies of general disaster policy preferences have not attended much to race, focusing instead on dimensions like partisanship and perceived deservingness. We use two original national surveys to assess the role of racial attitudes and ethnoracial identification on support for disaster spending. We find that racial attitudes are among the most powerful predictors of disaster spending preferences. They also strongly condition support for racially-targeted reasons justifying disaster spending. We also find that support for disaster spending is highest among Black Americans and lowest among Whites. Racial attitudes account for much of this racial gap, and strongly predict preferences even with controls for political attitudes, experience with disaster, and demographics. Our findings hold across question wordings and time. Racial attitudes are important in understanding general preferences about disaster policy, beyond responses to the specific racialized disasters on which scholars of race and disaster have focused.





FIGURE 2. Average Treatment Effect (ATT) of Citizens United
FIGURE 2. (CONTINUED)
Average Treatment Effect of Citizens United On Five Policy Outcomes (Pretreatment 2000-2009, Treatment 2010-2016)
Campaign Finance Regulations and Public Policy

March 2021

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53 Reads

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36 Citations

American Political Science Association

Despite a century of efforts to constrain money in American elections, there is little consensus on whether campaign finance regulations make any appreciable difference. Here we take advantage of a change in the campaign finance regulations of half of the U.S. states mandated by the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision. This exogenously imposed change in the regulation of independent expenditures provides an advance over the identification strategies used in most previous studies. Using a generalized synthetic control method, we find that after Citizens United , states that had previously banned independent corporate expenditures (and thus were “treated” by the decision) adopted more “corporate-friendly” policies on issues with broad effects on corporations’ welfare; we find no evidence of shifts on policies with little or no effect on corporate welfare. We conclude that even relatively narrow changes in campaign finance regulations can have a substantively meaningful influence on government policy making.





Doing Well and Doing Good? How Concern for Others Shapes Policy Preferences and Partisanship among Affluent Americans

June 2018

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83 Reads

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25 Citations

Public Opinion Quarterly

Previous research has identified nonmaterial considerations as especially important in shaping the political views of affluent Americans. While other scholars have focused on social issues like abortion or gay rights, or on collective goods like environmental protection, we explore the role of altruism in shaping the economic policy preferences and partisan identification of high-income Americans. We argue that altruistic concern for the well-being of the less well-off leads many affluent Americans to support antipoverty policies and the Democratic Party. Using measures based on actual giving behavior, we document that altruism matters little for low-income Americans' preferences and partisanship, but has substantively large effects on the affluent, leading altruistic high-income Americans to be substantially more supportive of antipoverty policy and the Democratic Party than their less altruistically inclined high-income peers. These findings help explain why a government that responds primarily to the wishes of the well-off may still pursue policies designed to help the poor. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Association for Public Opinion Research.


Citations (29)


... While this condition did not maximize support among White respondents, it did not backfire either, and it appeared to resonate equally among Republican and Democratic audiences in promoting policy support. These findings are consistent with other recent studies which find no evidence of backlash to explicit centering of race in messages about social policy (15,45,46). Prior research further suggests that failure to discuss equity-enhancing outcomes of policy may contribute to broad misperceptions that race and racism are unrelated to social problems like poverty, which can distort ideas about whether equitable policy is necessary in the first place (47). ...

Reference:

Centering historically minoritized populations to design effective messages about an evidence-based policy to advance social equity
Race-and Class-Based Messaging and Anti-Carceral Policy Support
  • Citing Preprint
  • January 2024

... In the United States, one of the most distinct group boundaries is racial identity. As groups, white and Black identifying Americans often have different attitudes and beliefs on issues like law enforcement 12 , healthcare [13][14][15] , religion 16 , and political leaning 17 . At the cognitive and neural levels, the strength of the association between unique concepts can be mapped out as a graph, defining the unique "concept geometry" of representations for each person [18][19][20][21][22][23][24] . ...

Race, gender, and partisan politics in the United States

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

... Classical frameworks, such as the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model, the Vasicek model, and the Merton jump diffusion model, are widely used to characterize interest rate dynamics, volatility patterns, and financial risks. These models provide a robust mathematical foundation for capturing the temporal evolution of financial variables, elucidating mean-reversion properties, stochastic volatility behaviors, and long-term equilibrium trends (Gilens et al., 2021). For instance, the CIR model plays a crucial role in pricing interest rate derivatives and assessing credit risk, while the Vasicek model serves as a basis for modeling interest rate term structures. ...

Campaign Finance Regulations and Public Policy

American Political Science Association

... While skepticism about the extent to which the public has any substantial effect on public policy is well founded (Gilens and Page 2014;Page and Gilens 2020), it remains the case that ordinary voters are responsible for the Republican Party's clean sweep of executive and legislative elected offices at the federal level. With the outcome of the 2024 election now known, analysts must interrogate why so many more voters responded positively to the MAGA agenda and the Republican Party brand, and in particular why specific groups of people voted in favor of this ideology. ...

Democracy in America?: What Has Gone Wrong and What We Can Do about It
  • Citing Book
  • January 2020

... In other words, as social studies educators, we are targets of the indoctrination he describes. There is plentiful research demonstrating that the ruling class organizes to advance its own interests (for example, Carroll & Sapinski, 2018;Mills, 1956;Page & Gilens, 2017;Phillips, 2018;Sklair, 2002;Street, 2014). And that it does this should be considered uncontroversial (Marmol, 2024). ...

Democracy in America?: What Has Gone Wrong and What We Can Do About It
  • Citing Book
  • January 2017

... It may be evolutionarily ingrained to assist hardworking, unlucky individuals (Petersen, 2012), but both envy of those with more and compassion for those with less have also evolved in humans (Sznycer et al., 2017). Furthermore, research shows that attitudes of sympathy or empathy toward the poor and envy or other forms of antipathy toward the rich shape policy attitudes (Bayram & Holmes, 2020;Gilens & Thal, 2018;Hansen, 2023;McCall, 2013;Piston, 2018;Sznycer et al., 2017;Witko & Moldogaziev, 2023) and Kreitzer and Smith (2018) show that Americans typically view the poor as more deserving (see also Schneider and Ingram (1993)). Research focused more directly on particularized benefits from government shows that those truly in need of resources are viewed as more deserving, regardless of how hard they work (Jilke & Tummers, 2018;van Oorschot, 2000). ...

Doing Well and Doing Good? How Concern for Others Shapes Policy Preferences and Partisanship among Affluent Americans
  • Citing Article
  • June 2018

Public Opinion Quarterly

... Rather than focusing on citizens' broad ideological preferences, Gilens focuses on their preferences regarding specific proposed policy changes. Using a unique data set of close to 2,000 survey questions about national policy issues between 1981 and 2002, Gilens (2005Gilens ( , 2012 finds that the aggregate preferences of high-income respondents are much more predictive of policy change than are the preferences of median-income respondents. Gilens and Page (2014) expand this data set to test four different theories of U.S. governance. ...

Policy consequences of representational inequality
  • Citing Article
  • January 2011

... At the same time, the contrast between the finding that both men and women are well represented in terms of congruence and the fact that women's congruence often seems to be entirely driven by their agreement with men, raises issues that have previously been discussed regarding economic inequality in representation. Women, just like low-income voters, mainly seem to receive "coincidental representation" (Gilens 2015). On the one hand, one could argue that our results are of only minor concern because men and women receive the policies they want at roughly the same rate. ...

The Insufficiency of “Democracy by Coincidence”: A Response to Peter K. Enns
  • Citing Article
  • December 2015

Perspectives on Politics

... However, for the taxation of wealth more specifically, the association with left governments has faded over time. As various scholars point out, conditions such as financialization (Lierse, 2021;Piketty et al., 2023), global competition for capital (Mathisen, 2024;Saez and Zucman, 2019;Osterloh and Debus, 2012) and the efforts of the wealthy to avoid taxes (Hacker and Pierson, 2010;Gilens, 2012;Bertrand et al., 2020;Kuhner, 2014) have all pressured left governments to converge with the right and refrain from broadly increasing taxes on wealth. Complementing this perspective, the current article's findings imply that even if a blanket increase of taxes on wealth is no longer politically feasible, left governments continue to use taxes to indirectly influence the return on wealth as well as the scale of overall wealth accumulation. ...

Affluence & Influence: Economic Inequality and Political Power in America
  • Citing Article
  • July 2012