Martin Beniston's research while affiliated with University of Geneva and other places
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Publications (220)
The COVID-19 pandemic has shown the need for better global governance of pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response (PPR) and has emphasised the importance of organised knowledge production and uptake. In this Health Policy, we assess the potential values and risks of establishing an Intergovernmental Panel for One Health (IPOH). Similar to th...
The European grapevine moth (Lobesia botrana) is one of the major pests of the grapevine (Vitis vinifera) in Europe. The phenology of both the insect pest and the plant has already changed over the last decades in response to rising temperatures, with a tendency towards an earlier development. The impact of a warming climate, among other factors, c...
In this study, we analyze the linkage between atmosphere and ocean modes and winter flood variability over the 20th century based on long-term flow-discharge series, historical archives, and tree-ring records of past floods in the North Atlantic Basin (NAB). The most extreme winter floods occurred in 1936 and had strong impacts on either side of th...
Supplementary Information: On the extraordinary winter flood episode over the North Atlantic Basin in 1936
The occurrence of El Niño has been generally considered the main driver of hydro‐geomorphic processes in Peru. However, the climatic characterization of hydro‐geomorphic events (HGE) occurring in the absence of El Niño remains scarce. Information contained in the DesInventar disaster database suggests a widespread occurrence of HGE associated to co...
This paper reports on the influence that extreme values in the tails of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index probability density function (PDF) can exert on temperatures in Europe. When the NAO Index enters into its lowest (10% quantile or less) and highest (90% quantile or higher) modes, European temperatures often exhibit large negative or...
Plants and insects depend on climatic factors (temperature, solar radiation, precipitations, relative humidity and CO2) for their development. Current knowledge suggests that climate change can alter plants and insects devel- opment and affect their interactions. Shifts in tritrophic relations are of particular concern for Integrated Pest Managemen...
The mountain cryosphere of mainland Europe is recognized to have important impacts on a range of environmental processes. In this paper, we provide an overview on the current knowledge on snow, glacier, and permafrost processes, as well as their past, current, and future evolution. We additionally provide an assessment of current cryosphere researc...
In November 2016, the Paris Agreement entered into force calling Parties to strengthen their cooperation for enhancing adaptation and narrowing the gap between climate science and policy. Moreover, climate change has been identified as a central challenge for sustainable development by the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
Dat...
The influence of aerosols on climate is highly dependent on the particle size distribution, concentration, and composition. In particular, the latter influences their ability to act as cloud condensation nuclei, whereby they impact cloud coverage and precipitation. Here, we simultaneously measured the concentration of aerosols from sea spray over t...
The eruption of Samalas in Indonesia in 1257 ranks among the largest sulfur-rich eruptions of the Common Era with sulfur deposition in ice cores reaching twice the volume of the Tambora eruption in 1815. Sedimentological analyses of deposits confirm the exceptional size of the event, which had both an eruption magnitude and a volcanic explosivity i...
The mountain cryosphere is recognized to have important impacts on a range of environmental processes. This paper reviews current knowledge on snow, glacier, and permafrost processes, as well as their past, current and future evolution in mountain regions in mainland Europe. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the current state of cryosphere r...
We analyze the temporal and spatial patterns of rain-on-snow (ROS) events during the last 4 decades in Switzerland and project the future occurrence of ROS events based on atmospheric warming under the A1B greenhouse gas emissions scenario. The results indicate that ROS events occur mainly during winter months at low elevations, and during summer m...
This paper focuses on the influence of mountain rain-on-snow (ROS) events that can on occasion trigger major floods in alpine catchments. In order to assess the evolution of these events in a recent past, and the potential changes that could be experienced in a changing climate over coming decades, we have focused on a small catchment in north-east...
Among the multiple forms of freshwater pelagic cyanobacteria, the phycoerythrin-rich species Planktothrix rubescens is well adapted to temperate, deep and large lakes. In Lake Geneva, this filamentous and microcystin-producing species has been the dominant cyanobacterial species observed since the early years of this century. In addition to the tro...
Flash floods are a common natural hazard in Mediterranean mountain environments and responsible for serious economic and human disasters. The study of flash flood dynamics and their triggers is a key issue; however, the retrieval of historical data is often limited in mountain regions as a result of short time series and the systematic lack of hist...
Explosive volcanism can alter global climate, and hence trigger economic, political and demographic change. The climatic impact of the largest volcanic events has been assessed in numerous modelling studies and tree-ring-based hemispheric temperature reconstructions. However, volcanic surface cooling derived from climate model simulations is system...
A study has been undertaken to analyze the behavior of record high and low values of temperature since the early 1950s for 30 locations spread across Europe. When establishing the ratios of the number of record Tmax to record Tmin values in each year, it is seen that there is a sharp increase in these ratios in the most recent decade. This seems to...
Regional climate model (RCM) outputs are often used in hydrological modeling, in
particular for streamflow forecasting. The heterogeneity of the meteorological variables such as precipitation, temperature, wind speed and solar radiation often limits the ability of the hydrological model performance. This paper assessed the sensitivity of RCM outpu...
This paper evaluates the response of stream flow and other components of the water balance to changes in climate and land-use in a Pyrenean watershed. It further provides a measure of uncertainty in water resources forecasts by comparing the performance of two hydrological models: Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Regional Hydro-Ecological...
Observational data are essential for analyzing past and current environmental trends and for providing appropriate initial, boundary and validation conditions for numerical models used in the environmental sciences (climate, hydrology, cryosphere, biosphere, etc.), but very often access to such data needs to overcome a number of, from the sparsenes...
Little use has been made up till now of the concept of climate analogues to link the present and the past, i.e. places whose current climate (‘target’ locations) is similar to that experienced some decades ago at distant locations (‘reference’ sites). Indeed, most research up till now has focused on analogues between present and future climates. He...
We exploit the isomorphism between equation sets that govern the
evolution of surface gravity waves and optical waves in dispersive
nonlinear materials. This allows us to write down a generalised system
of equations, where the model variables have different interpretation
depending on whether the ocean or the optical material is being studied.
We u...
Aim
Climate warming and land use change represent a major challenge for both species and conservation managers. Temporally and spatially explicit projections of the future distribution of species have been extensively developed to support decision‐making in conservation. The aim of this study was to move beyond the simple projections of likely impa...
As the evidence for human induced climate change becomes clearer, so too does the realization that its effects will have impacts on numerous environmental and socio-economic systems. Mountains are recognized as very sensitive physical environments with populations whose histories and current social positions often strain their capacity to accommoda...
The long-term monitoring of Lake Geneva, which started at the end of the 1950s, highlights climate induced changes on the thermal properties and dynamics of that particular lake. More recent in-situ measurements have allowed drawing direct and indirect relationships between changes observed in the plankton community and meteorological variability....
![Fig. 2 Upstream [upper left and right] and downstream [lower left and...](profile/Kazi-Rahman-4/publication/257672700/figure/fig2/AS:297536070930437@1447949535476/Upstream-upper-left-and-right-and-downstream-lower-left-and-right-discharge_Q320.jpg)
Streamflow simulation is often challenging in mountainous watersheds because of irregular topography and complex hydrological processes. Rates of change in precipitation and temperature with respect to elevation often limit the ability to reproduce stream runoff by hydrological models. Anthropogenic influence, such as water transfers in high altitu...
Despite large scientific progress in the last two decades, many domains of uncertainty still remain as to the functioning of the climate system. The reduction of these uncertainties would be unlikely to radically change the fairly robust conclusion that contemporary climate change is to a significant degree driven by anthropogenic emissions of gree...
This paper evaluates the response of stream flow and other components of
the water balance to changes in climate and land-use in a Pyrenean
watershed. It further provides a measure of uncertainty in water
resources forecasts by comparing the performance of two hydrological
models: Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Regional
Hydro-Ecological...
Reliable estimates of future climate change in the Alps are relevant for large parts of the European society. At the same time, the complex Alpine region poses considerable challenges to climate models, which translate to uncertainties in the climate projections. Against this background, the present study reviews the state-of-knowledge about 21st c...
The aim of this study was to draw a general picture of the phytoplankton community in peri-Alpine lakes, including for the first time a broad data set of six deep peri-Alpine lakes, belonging to the same geographical region. The objective was to define the main key drivers that influence the phytoplankton community composition in this particular vu...
In this study, we assess the role of altitude in determining the
relative performance of temperature and precipitation as predictors of
snowpack variability in Switzerland. The results indicate a linear
relationship between altitude and the correlation of temperature
(precipitation) with snowpack depth and duration. We identify a
threshold altitude...
The complex topography of the Alps makes detailed hydrological modelling a real challenge. It is yet an essential task to improve the insight of hydrological processes in the context of intensification of renewable energy use and under the constraints of climate change. In this perspective and as a case study, the runoff of a small highly glacieriz...
Streamflow forecasting is often done with the help of output obtained
from Regional Climate Model (RCM) generated variables. The heterogeneity
of the meteorological variables such as precipitation, temperature, wind
speed and solar radiation often limit the ability of the hydrological
model performance. This research assessed the sensitivity of RCM...
In the context of global warming, hydrological regimes in mountain areas are likely to be modified and will therefore result in significant impacts to the supply mechanisms for hydropower and other end-uses of water, both in the mountains themselves and in the lowland regions downstream. The main objective here is to attempt a fine and continuous a...
Snowpack is a source of environmental and economic richness in the Swiss
Alps. However, duration and depth of snowpack has suffered a reduction
during the last three decades due to current climate warming. This is
especially noticable at low-to-middle elevation sites, where temperature
is the main constraint for snowpack variability. This work ass...
In a changing climate, it is likely that precipitation patterns will experience shifts in amount and seasonality, with a tendency towards increased drought in many parts of Europe. In order to investigate what could be some of the feedbacks of dry conditions on temperature, this paper has investigated close to 30 European locations to assess the in...
Understanding the complexity of earth-system processes is crucial to convey improved information on the environment to decision-makers and the general public. Addressing this need by sharing environmental data is challenging because it requires a common agreed framework that allows easy and seamless integration of data from different sources. In th...
Les données récoltées depuis la fin des années 1950 dans le cadre du suivi écologique du Léman mettent en évidence l’impact du réchauffement climatique sur la thermie de ce lac. Les campagnes de suivi plus récentes permettent d’établir des liens concrets entre certains changements au sein des communautés pélagiques et les fluctuations météorologiqu...
Understanding the complexity of earth-system processes is crucial to convey improved information on the environment to decision-makers and the general public. Addressing this need by sharing environmental data is challenging because it requires a common agreed framework that allows easy and seamless integration of data from different sources. In th...
A storm loss model that was first developed for Germany is applied to
the much smaller geographic area of the canton of Vaud, in Western
Switzerland. 24 major wind storms that struck the region during the
period 1990-2010 are analysed, and outputs are compared to loss
observations provided by an insurance company. Model inputs include
population da...
The integration of scientific knowledge about possible climate change impacts on water resources has a direct implication on the way water policies are being implemented and evolving. This is particularly true regarding various technical steps embedded into the EU Water Framework Directive river basin management planning, such as risk characterisat...
Snow cover in Spanish mountains is crucial for ensuring water availability in spring and summer months, for the success of winter tourism or for the maintenance of biodiversity in mountain ecosystems. A changing climate may affect the volume of snow cover even in high mountains, where weather conditions are usually favorable for snow accumulation....
Climate-driven changes in glacier-fed streamflow regimes have direct implications on freshwater supply, irrigation and hydropower potential. Reliable information about current and future glaciation and runoff is crucial for water allocation, a complex task in Central Asia, where the collapse of the Soviet Union has transformed previously interdepen...
Snow in a populated and economically diverse region such as the Alps plays an important role in both natural environmental systems, (e.g., hydrology and vegetation), and a range of socio‐economic sectors (e.g., tourism or hydropower). Changes in snow amount and duration may impact upon these systems in various ways. The objective of this text is to...
This paper reviews the possible future situation of the Rhone River in the Swiss part of its catchment. Physical processes in the Alps govern the behaviour of the Rhone from its source (Rhone Glacier) to the Lake of Geneva, and substantial changes are expected to occur in the amount and seasonality of precipitation, and in the response of snow and...
Cyanobacteria are of major interest in freshwater ecosystems, since they are able to produce toxins with potentially negative impacts on the environment, health and thus on economics and society. It is therefore important for water management authorities to assess the manner in which cyanobacteria may evolve under climate change, especially in the...
Snow cover and duration are very variable components of the alpine environment and are often poorly reproduced in climate models. Using joint probability temperature/precipitation distributions to categorize cold/dry, cold/moist, warm/dry (WD) and warm/moist situations in winter, this study demonstrates that one particular mode (WD) exerts the stro...
This work analyses the influence of NAO on the interannual evolution of winter temperature, precipitation and snowpack in the Mediterranean mountains. Due to lack of snow data in many mountain areas, the occurrence of four different winter modes are used as a proxy of the amount of accumulated snow. Winter modes are defined on the basis of combined...
The intensity and frequency of heavy snowfall events in the Pyrenees were simulated using data from the HIRHAM regional climate
model for a control period (1960–1990) and two greenhouse emission scenarios (SRES B2 and A2) for the end of the twenty-first
century (2070–2100). Comparisons between future and control simulations enabled a quantification...
The 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) commits signatories to achieving a "stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system", leaving unspecified the level of global warming that is "dangerous" (Oppenheimer and Petsonk 200...
Based on observational meteorological data since A.D. 1864 and tree-ring records of debris-flow activity, this paper assesses
changes in rainfall characteristics and their impact on the triggering of geomorphic events in a high-elevation watershed
of the Swiss Alps since the end of the Little Ice Age. No trends are visible in the frequency of heavy...
Climate change is affecting biodiversity worldwide inducing species to either "move, adapt or die". In this paper we propose a conceptual framework for analysing range shifts, namely a catalogue of the possible patterns of change in the distribution of a species along elevational or other environmental gradients and an improved quantitative methodo...
Understanding the complexity of earth-system processes is crucial to convey improved information on the environment to decision-makers and the general public. Addressing this need by sharing environmental data is challenging because it requires a common agreed framework that allows easy and seamless integration of data from different sources. In th...
A method to create spatial predictions of wind speeds over Switzerland
with values of the 98th percentile of daily maximum wind speeds (W98)
has been investigated. From the Swiss meteorological stations weather
data, Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) have been used to predict these
extreme wind speeds. Physical factors describing the highly
hetero...
A method to assess wind speeds over complex terrain is presented. A combination of Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) layers describing the terrain characteristics can provide spatial predictions of wind speeds even over the highly heterogeneous terrain of Switzerland. From the meteorological stations weathe...
The realization that human beings need to be concerned about the only ‘life-support system’ that the Earth and its environment provides stems perhaps in part from the fact that, until fairly recently, the evolution of humankind was largely dependent on the quality of the environment and the resources it provides in terms of water, food, and favoura...
When assessing the impacts of human activities on the climate system, it is necessary to have an insight on baseline climates where human encroachment is absent or limited, in order to determine how current and future trends may be out of the range of “natural” climate variability. In this respect, paleoclimate reconstructions have played a leading...
The European Alps are one region of the world where climate-driven changes are already perceptible, as exemplified by the general retreat of mountain glaciers over past decades. Temperatures have risen by up to 2 °C since 1900 particularly at high elevations, a rate that is roughly three times the global-average 20th century warming. Regional clima...
The most severe damage to forests in central Europe occurs during winter storms that are caused by Northern Hemispheric mid‐latitude cyclones. These winter storms have caused several catastrophic windthrows during the past four decades. Amounts of forest storm damage are believed to be a function of both the size of the forest and the storm intensi...
In this study, we report on the ability of four one-dimensional lake models to simulate the water temperature profiles of Lake Geneva, the largest water body in Western Europe, over a 10-yr period from 1996 to 2005, using lake models driven by a common atmospheric forcing. These lake models have already demonstrated their capability of reproducing...
In this study, snowpack series are modeled across the Pyrenees using data derived from the HIRHAM Regional Climate Model for both the control period (1960–1990) and two emission scenarios (SRES B2 and A2) by the end of the 21st century (2070–2100). A comparison of future and control simulations enables us to quantify the expected change in snowpack...
An analysis of several Swiss climatological sites reveals that a substantial change in the behaviour of pressure, minimum and maximum temperature extremes has occurred in the past two decades. Extreme cold tails defined by the 10% quantiles of temperature drop by a factor of 2 or 3, while the upper tails (beyond the 90% quantile) exhibit a four- or...