December 2024
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5 Reads
Journal of Financial Economics
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December 2024
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5 Reads
Journal of Financial Economics
November 2024
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7 Reads
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2 Citations
The Journal of Finance
This address reviews macrofinance from the perspective of resilience. It argues for a shift in mindset, away from risk management toward resilience management. It proposes a new resilience measure, and contrasts micro‐ and macro‐resilience. It also classifies macrofinance models in first‐ (log‐linearized) and second‐generation models, and links the important themes of macrofinance to resilience.
May 2024
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13 Reads
This paper studies how a large increase in the price level is transmitted to the real economy through firm balance sheets. Using newly digitized macro- and micro-level data from the German inflation of 1919-1923, we show that inflation led to a large reduction in real debt burdens and bankruptcies. Firms with higher nominal liabilities at the onset of inflation experienced a larger decline in interest expenses, a relative increase in their equity values, and higher employment during the inflation. The results are consistent with real effects of a debt-inflation channel that operates even when prices and wages are flexible.
May 2024
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25 Reads
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1 Citation
Review of Financial Studies
We study the run on the German banking system in 1931 to understand whether depositors anticipate which banks will fail in a major financial crisis. We find that deposits decline by around 20% during the run. There is an equal outflow of retail and nonfinancial wholesale deposits from both failing and surviving banks. In contrast, we find that interbank deposits almost exclusively decline for failing banks. Our evidence suggests that banks are better informed about which fellow banks will fail. In turn, banks being informed allows the interbank market to continue providing liquidity even during times of severe financial distress. (JEL G01, G21, N20, N24)
March 2024
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4 Reads
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5 Citations
Journal of Political Economy
January 2024
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1 Read
SSRN Electronic Journal
August 2023
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30 Reads
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123 Citations
American Economic Review
The reversal interest rate is the rate at which accommodative monetary policy reverses and becomes contractionary for lending. We theoretically demonstrate its existence in a macroeconomic model featuring imperfectly competitive banks that face financial frictions. When interest rates are cut too low, further monetary stimulus cuts into banks’ profit margins, depressing their net worth and curtailing their credit supply. Similarly, when interest rates are low for too long, the persistent drag on bank profitability eventually outweighs banks’ initial capital gains, also stifling credit supply. We quantify the importance of this mechanism within a calibrated New Keynesian model. (JEL E12, E32, E43, E44, E52, G21, L25)
January 2023
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4 Reads
SSRN Electronic Journal
January 2023
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14 Reads
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6 Citations
SSRN Electronic Journal
January 2023
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1 Read
SSRN Electronic Journal
... Interoperability enables efficient communication and data exchange across different financial systems. Regulatory elements include the implementation of rules and procedures to guarantee the protection of security, privacy, and adherence to financial legislation in various countries (Brunnermeier et al., 2023). ...
January 2023
SSRN Electronic Journal
... The reversal interest rate adalah tingkat di mana kebijakan moneter akomodatif membalikkan efek yang dimaksudkan dan menjadi kontraktif untuk pinjaman. Itu terjadi ketika revaluasi aset bank dari durasi mismatch lebih dari diimbangi oleh penurunan pendapatan bunga bersih pada bisnis baru, menurunkan kekayaan bersih bank dan memperketat batasan modal mereka (Brunnermeier & Koby, 2018). ...
August 2023
American Economic Review
... Cookson et al., 2023), or has relied on lower frequency historical data (e.g. Blickle, Brunnermeier, and Luck, 2024). ...
Reference:
Tracing Bank Runs in Real Time
January 2022
SSRN Electronic Journal
... There were several proposals for adjusting wages for inflation (for a review, Holtfrerich 1986 andKuczynski 1925), however, each was far from perfect and, moreover, each social group had an interest in imposing a method to gain an advantage in bargaining. Another important element underlined by Webb (1989), see Table 1 and Brunnermeier et al. (2023) is the shortening of the length of the wage payment period. In general, authorities undertook a middle way solution: workers should have accepted a considerable reduction in real wages to maintain the authority of collective agreements but an increase would have coincided with worsened workers' conditions. ...
January 2022
SSRN Electronic Journal
... findings are in line with the paper of 52 which document that the interdependence between hedge fund styles increases in the tails, leading to the potential for simultaneous large losses across different strategies.Billio et al. (2016) 53 motivated this higher tail risk with a higher exposure to liquidity and credit risks that affect the entire entire hedge fund industry during a crisis period. Akay, Senyuz and Yoldas (2013)54 show that both liquidity and flight to safety play a significant role in leading the hedge funds in periods of extreme volatility and large negative returns. ...
January 2013
... In this dimension, macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, unemployment, and inflation are used in modelling systemic risk. Another important contribution to the study of systemic risk is the discovery that liquidity mismatches are at the center of financial crises (Brunnermeier et al. 2014, Diamond, 2007. This liquidity risk in turn leads banks and their depositors to participate in derivative markets, which provides a hedge for their assets such as forward contracts. ...
January 2014
... The relationship between credit and asset price bubbles has been a topic of interest for economists for many decades (Fischer (1933), Galbraith (1955), Minsky (1992), Mian and Sufi (2009), and Adelino, Schoar, and Severino (2016)). Recent empirical work has shown that easy access to credit is at the root of many equity market booms and busts (Reinhart and Rogoff (2009), Brunnermeier and Schnabel (2016)), but the mechanism through which credit affects trading strategies, prices, and wealth transfers is still unclear. In this article, we study what type of equity traders take credit, how they trade, and whether they gain from their investments. ...
June 2016
... Gorton examined the relationship between financial crises and market confidence and concluded that a collapse in market confidence when a bubble bursts leads to a liquidity crunch in financial markets, further exacerbating the severity of financial crises [10]. The close interconnectedness of financial institutions is such that the failure of one institution may trigger a chain reaction leading to the destabilization of the entire financial system [11]. ...
November 2012
... Models of this channel are inBassetto and Cui (2018),Bassetto and Cui (2021),Reis (2021),Elenev et al. (2021),Brunnermeier, Merkel, and Sannikov (2022), andJiang et al. (2022). 5 For models of this channel, seeAngeletos, Collard, and Dellas (2016),Miao and Su (2021), andGorton and Ordoñez (2022). ...
January 2022
SSRN Electronic Journal
... Chinese stock market is often considered to have more policy interventions compared other major stock market in the world. The Chinese stock market use regular and intensive policy interventions to guide and maintain the financial markets, while the western stock markets are often reluctant to commit to such interventions unless for crisis diversion [1]. The logic behind intensive policy intensive is understandable. ...
December 2021
Review of Economic Studies