Markus Ahlers’s research while affiliated with Niels Bohr Institute and other places

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Publications (181)


FIG. 1. Constraints on extragalactic source populations in terms of their neutrino luminosity and effective emissivity based on IceCube's 10yr point-source discovery potential [33] for spectral index γ = 2 (left) and γ = 3 (right). Top panels: The local luminosity distribution of Eq. (23) for each source class, with peak luminosity and 50% central range indicated as vertical lines and shaded regions, respectively. Bottom panels: The red filled contours show the excluded combinations of neutrino luminosity and emissivity of standard-candle populations assuming three cases of redshift evolution for the comoving number density (see Section III). The green horizontal band shows the effective emissivity of IceCube from Eq. (7). The stars and horizontal bands show the peak luminosity and 50% central range for different source classes at the maximum emissivity consistent with the non-detection of the brightest source, NDP = 1, using Eq. (13). See Section IV and Table I for further details on the source candidates.
FIG. 2. The effect of ensemble fluctuations on the exclusion contours illustrated for the case of standard candles following the SFR evolution. The green horizontal band shows the effective emissivity of IceCube from Eq. (7). The thin red lines outline the 68% central region accounting for Poisson fluctuations of the expectation value N ⋆ DP . The dashed red line shows N ⋆ DP = 1. The dash-dotted black line shows the exclusion contour based on the expected flux of the closest source. See Section III for details.
FIG. 4. The expected flux of the kth brightest source following from a distribution in Euclidean space in Eq. (15). The bullet symbols and error bars indicate the median and central 68% range following from the distributions in Eq. (24). The crosses show the expectation value from Eq. (25).
FIG. 6. Comparison of the exclusion contours based on IceCube's 10yr point-source discovery potential [33] (dashed red line) to that expected for IceCube-Gen2 [62] (dotted red line) over the same period. We also indicate the potential reach of catalogue searches (solid black line), assuming a factor 3 improvement compared to IceCube's DP for the brightest source; see Fig. 1 and Section V for details.
FIG. 7. Flux distribution of the brightest, 3rd brightest and 10th brightest source. The solid lines show predictions from Eq. (24) and histograms the outcome of 10 4 simulations for Ntot = 10 6 sources with flux sampled from Eq. (15). Dashed lines show the median for each distribution.

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Deciphering the Sources of Cosmic Neutrinos
  • Preprint
  • File available

March 2025

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5 Reads

Kathrine Mørch Groth

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Markus Ahlers

More than a decade ago, the IceCube Neutrino Observatory discovered a diffuse flux of 10 TeV - 10 PeV neutrinos from our Universe. This flux of unknown origin most likely emanates from an extragalactic population of neutrino sources, which are individually too faint to appear as bright emitters. We review constraints on extragalactic neutrino source populations based on the non-detection of the brightest neutrino source. Extending previous work, we discuss limitations of source populations based on general neutrino luminosity functions. Our method provides more conservative but also statistically more robust predictions for the expected number of observable sources. We also show that the combined search of the brightest neutrino sources via weighted stacking searches or the analysis of non-Poissonian fluctuations in event-count histograms can improve the discovery potential by a factor of 2-3 relative to the brightest source.

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Ideas and Requirements for the Global Cosmic-Ray Observatory (GCOS)

February 2025

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40 Reads

Markus Ahlers

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Ingo Allekotte

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Jaime Alvarez-Muniz

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[...]

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Pengfei Zhang

After a successful kick-off meeting in 2021. two workshops in 2022 and 2023 on the future Global Cosmic-Ray Observatory (GCOS) focused mainly on a straw man design of the detector and science possibilities for astro- and particle physics. About 100 participants gathered for in-person and hybrid panel discussions. In this report, we summarize these discussions, present a preliminary straw-man design for GCOS and collect short write-ups of the flash talks given during the focus sessions.



Galactic diffuse neutrino emission from sources beyond the discovery horizon

February 2024

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15 Reads

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8 Citations

Physical Review D

The IceCube Neutrino Observatory has recently reported strong evidence for neutrino emission from the Galactic plane. The signal is consistent with model predictions of diffuse emission from cosmic ray propagation in the interstellar medium. However, owing to IceCube’s limited potential of identifying individual neutrino sources, it is also feasible that unresolved Galactic sources could contribute to the signal. We investigate the contribution of this quasidiffuse emission and show that the observed Galactic diffuse flux at 100 TeV could be dominated by the hard emission of unresolved sources. Particularly interesting candidate sources are young massive stellar clusters that have been considered as cosmic-ray PeVatrons. We examine whether this hypothesis can be tested by the upcoming KM3NeT detector or the planned future facility IceCube-Gen2 with about 5 times the sensitivity of IceCube.



In situ estimation of ice crystal properties at the South Pole using LED calibration data from the IceCube Neutrino Observatory

January 2024

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93 Reads

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10 Citations

The IceCube Neutrino Observatory instruments about 1 km3 of deep, glacial ice at the geographic South Pole. It uses 5160 photomultipliers to detect Cherenkov light emitted by charged relativistic particles. An unexpected light propagation effect observed by the experiment is an anisotropic attenuation, which is aligned with the local flow direction of the ice. We examine birefringent light propagation through the polycrystalline ice microstructure as a possible explanation for this effect. The predictions of a first-principles model developed for this purpose, in particular curved light trajectories resulting from asymmetric diffusion, provide a qualitatively good match to the main features of the data. This in turn allows us to deduce ice crystal properties. Since the wavelength of the detected light is short compared to the crystal size, these crystal properties include not only the crystal orientation fabric, but also the average crystal size and shape, as a function of depth. By adding small empirical corrections to this first-principles model, a quantitatively accurate description of the optical properties of the IceCube glacial ice is obtained. In this paper, we present the experimental signature of ice optical anisotropy observed in IceCube light-emitting diode (LED) calibration data, the theory and parameterization of the birefringence effect, the fitting procedures of these parameterizations to experimental data, and the inferred crystal properties.



A cosmic-ray database update: CRDB v4.1

October 2023

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97 Reads

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16 Citations

The European Physical Journal C

The cosmic-ray database, , has been gathering cosmic-ray data for the community since 2013. We present a new release, , providing many new quantities and data sets, with several improvements made on the code and web interface, and with new visualisation tools. relies on the MySQL database management system, and libraries for queries and sorting, and PHP web pages and AJAX protocol for displays. A REST interface enables user queries from command line or scripts. A new (pip-installable) CRDB python library is developed and extensive jupyter notebook examples are provided. This release contains cosmic-ray dipole anisotropy data, high-energy pˉ/p\bar{p}/p p ¯ / p upper limits, some unpublished LEE and AESOP lepton time series, many more ultra-high energy data, and a few missing old data sets. It also includes high-precision data from the last three years, in particular the hundreds of thousands AMS-02 and PAMELA data time series (time-dependent plots are now enabled). All these data are shown in a gallery of plots, which can be easily reproduced from the public notebook examples. contains 316,126 data points from 504 publications, in 4111 sub-experiments from 131 experiments.



Diffusive shock acceleration at EeV and associated multimessenger flux from ultra-fast outflows driven by Active Galactic Nuclei

September 2023

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14 Reads

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18 Citations

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society

Active galactic nuclei (AGN) can launch and sustain powerful winds featuring mildly relativistic velocity and wide opening angle. Such winds, known as ultra-fast outflows (UFOs), can develop a bubble structure characterized by a forward shock expanding in the host galaxy and a wind termination shock separating the fast cool wind from the hot shocked wind. In this work we explore whether diffusive shock acceleration can take place efficiently at the wind termination shock of UFOs. We calculate the spectrum of accelerated particles and find that protons can be energized up to the EeV range promoting UFOs to promising candidates for accelerating ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECRs). We also compute the associated gamma-ray and neutrino fluxes and compare them with available data in the literature. We observe that high-energy (HE) neutrinos are efficiently produced up to hundreds of PeV while the associated gamma rays could be efficiently absorbed beyond a few tens of GeV by the optical-ultraviolet AGN photon field. By assuming a typical source density of non-jetted AGN we expect that UFOs could play a dominant role as diffuse sources of UHECRs and HE neutrinos. We finally apply our model to the recently observed NGC1068 and we find out that under specific parametric conditions an obscured UFO could provide a sizeable contribution to the observed gamma-ray flux while only contributing up to 10%\sim 10\% to the associated neutrino flux.


Citations (53)


... However, none of these analyses have yielded conclusive discoveries of neutrino point sources at the 5σ-significance level [33,[37][38][39][40][41]. More recently, IceCube has also observed a neutrino signal from our own Milky Way Galaxy consistent with the expected glow from cosmic-ray interactions in the interstellar medium [42,43]. Despite this progress, the origin of the extragalactic diffuse neutrino flux remains uncertain. ...

Reference:

Deciphering the Sources of Cosmic Neutrinos
Galactic diffuse neutrino emission from sources beyond the discovery horizon
  • Citing Article
  • February 2024

Physical Review D

... Uncertainty in the "scattering" and "absorption" properties of the undisturbed bulk glacial ice are also included. Furthermore, a new calibration model accounting for the birefringent polycrystalline microstructure of the ice [34] has been introduced to describe the azimuthal anisotropy observed in the ice. We employed a new systematic parameter ("BFR eff.") in this analysis that interpolates between this new model and the previous baseline model where the anisotropy was accounted for by an empirical model (SPICE-3.2.1 [35]). ...

In situ estimation of ice crystal properties at the South Pole using LED calibration data from the IceCube Neutrino Observatory

... In particular, new satellite data now span energies from tens of GeV up to the PeV range, overlapping with ground-based measurements and expanding the available data. We have updated our data set accordingly, incorporating results published in the last seven years, including some from the Cosmic-Ray Data Base (CRDB) [2]. ...

A cosmic-ray database update: CRDB v4.1

The European Physical Journal C

... Topics of cost, vendor lock-in, and storage were among the most mentioned as being challenging for the MFs to navigate. The Cloud TWG was formed shortly after, consisting of staff from MFs (such as the NSF Seismological Facility for the Advancement of Geoscience (NSF SAGE)/ the NSF Geodetic Facility for the Advancement of Geoscience (NSF GAGE) [21], NSF Ocean Observatories Initiative (NSF OOI) [16], NSF IceCube Neutrino Observatory [22], NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR) [14]), cloud providers (such as Jetstream [23] and Cyverse [24]), personnel from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) archives, cloud practitioners from Internet2 [25], and NSF CI Compass staff members. Over the past two years, this diverse group engaged in in-depth discussions about the various MF's, their needs, and how best to leverage the Cloud and other national CI supported by NSF. ...

Highlights from the IceCube Neutrino Observatory
  • Citing Conference Paper
  • September 2023

... We emphasize that a low CR proton fraction on Earth does not necessarily imply an unobservable cosmogenic neutrino flux since strong radiation fields around UHECR sources can be effective proton absorbers and neutrino emitters [73,74] (for a recent review, see [75]). This is the case for high-luminosity Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) [76,77], where the photon density is high enough for trapped UHECRs to undergo photodisintegration and photopion production, boosting the neutrino emission and suppressing the observable UHE CR proton fraction. In addition, it has been pointed out that PA data does not exclude a proton fraction of O(10%) in certain CR evolution models [25]. ...

Diffusive shock acceleration at EeV and associated multimessenger flux from ultra-fast outflows driven by Active Galactic Nuclei
  • Citing Article
  • September 2023

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society

... The era of extragalactic neutrino astronomy was ushered in over a decade ago by the IceCube observatory upon detection of an astrophysical neutrino flux [1]. This neutrino flux has now been robustly observed from ∼10 TeV to ∼1 PeV [2,3] and a first point source, NGC 1068, has been identified with 4.2σ significance [4]. IceCube has achieved myriad of other remarkable discoveries including: coincident detection of an astrophysical neutrino with flaring blazar TXS-0506+056 [5,6], detection of a flux of neutrinos from the Galactic plane [7], as well as, robust detections of a Glashow resonance event [8] and tau neutrinos [9]. ...

Measurement of the Cosmic Neutrino Flux from the Southern Sky using 10 years of IceCube Starting Track Events

... These challenges can only be addressed with further multiwavelength follow-up investigations of flaring blazars in temporal and spatial coincidence with astrophysical neutrino alerts, both single high energy neutrino events and those within the framework of the GFU program. Furthermore, as seen in Schüssler et al. (2023), such studies are even more effective when we combine observations from multiple IACTs in order to provide a more complete coverage of the entire sky. This also helps to account for cases where the visibility of a source from a single observatory site is adversely affected due to factors such as bad weather, the presence of the Sun or Moon, or technical problems. ...

Joint searches by FACT, H.E.S.S., MAGIC and VERITAS for VHE gamma-ray emission associated with neutrinos detected by IceCube
  • Citing Conference Paper
  • July 2023

... The resolution of the energy reconstruction was improved substantially compared to similar previous analyses [26,27] without using any quality cuts. The resolution of the direction reconstruction was reduced by about a factor of 10 for the 'deep' stations and by about 2 degrees in space angle difference for the 'shallow' stations compared to similar previous analyses [27,28]. The results from the flavor classification were comparable to a previous analysis [13,29]. ...

Direction reconstruction performance for IceCube-Gen2 Radio

... Radio galaxy PKS 0625-35.-Reference [92] reported the association of three IceCube neutrinos with energies between 63 and 302 TeV with a flare of the radio galaxy PKS 0625-35. The pre-trial significance of this apparent association was 3.6σ. ...

H.E.S.S. realtime follow-ups of IceCube high-energy neutrino alerts

... The reported precision is similar to and consistent with measurements from accelerator and reactor [31] neutrino experiments while uniquely using neutrinos of much higher energy over longer baselines, supporting the standard 3ν paradigm of neutrino mixing. The upcoming IceCube Upgrade [32] next-generation detector implementing a denser configuration of next-generation detector modules and advanced calibration instrumentation will enable significant improvements to this measurement in the coming decade. ...

Sensitivity of the IceCube Upgrade to Atmospheric Neutrino Oscillations
  • Citing Conference Paper
  • July 2023