Marits Pieters’s research while affiliated with Significance b.v. and other places

Cross-border travel generates a substantial amount of mobility near the borders, but is not a large percentage of total Dutch mobility. However in the border regions of the country, these flows are important. For the Dutch national transport model LMS, O-D matrices are required that include cross-border car travel. This is a challenging task, due to scarcity of data. First, a production model (by travel purpose) is used to calculate the total production of car journeys. Next, these journeys are distributed over domestic and foreign destinations using a simplified destination choice model. From the resulting matrix, domestic journeys are removed and only the border crossing journeys are kept. Domestic journeys are then replaced by the results of the existing much more detailed mode-and destination choice models. The new models are estimated on the Dutch national mobility survey (MON) and are of reasonable quality. The predicted numbers of border crossing journeys to Belgium and Germany are lower than the numbers from traffic counts, and therefore an additional calibration to count data totals is carried out. The results indicate that for commuting the resistance to cross the border is equivalent to 35 (Belgium) or 46 (Germany) minutes extra travel time. Also for all other travel purposes in the model, it is found that the border resistance for journeys to Belgium is smaller than that for journeys to Germany, which can be explained by the additional factor of language difference. The smallest border resistance for both countries is found for shopping journeys.

The logsum is a measure of consumer surplus in the context of logit choice models. In spite of the very frequent use of logit models in transport, project assessment is only rarely done using logsums. Instead in project evaluation or appraisal, changes in transport costs and time (borrowing values of time from some source) are commonly used to get the traveller benefits. The paper contains a review of the theoretical and applied literature on the use of logsums as a measure of consumer surplus change in project appraisal and evaluation. It then goes on to describe a case study with the Dutch National Model System for transport in which the logsum method and the commonly used value of time method are compared for a specific project (high speed trains that would connect the four main cities in the Randstad: Amsterdam, The Hague, Rotterdam and Utrecht).

This paper provides a review of transport model applications that not only provide a central traffic forecast (or forecasts for a few scenarios), but also quantify the uncertainty in the traffic forecasts in the form of a confidence interval or related measures. Both uncertainty that results from using uncertain inputs (e.g. on income) and uncertainty in the model itself are treated. The paper goes on to describe the methods used and the results obtained for a case study in quantifying uncertainty in traffic forecasts in The Netherlands.

There has been substantial discussion among planners about the influence of transport in residential location choices. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the importance of accessibility in explaining residential location choices. The paper addresses this issue by presenting and analyzing findings from the literature and results of a housing market estimation study in the Netherlands. The research findings for the Netherlands illustrate that the transport system influences residential moves at three stages: in move-stay choice, estimation results show that households are less likely to move away from a more accessible location; travel time variables are significant for all household types, and therefore changes in the transport system will affect the size of the housing market and search area of the households; the model estimation results suggest that accessibility of a specific location for many household types is not a significant variable in their location choice. Overall, the empirical results suggest that the role of accessibility is significant but small compared with the effect of demographic factors, neighborhood amenities, and dwelling attributes in explaining residential location choices. The empirical findings are confirmed by findings in the literature; the present results are located at the lower end of findings reported in the literature. An important factor contributing to this result is that accessibility changes among regions in the Netherlands are rather small.

The logsum is a measure of consumer surplus in the context of logit choice models. In spite of the very frequent use of logit models in transport, project assessment is only rarely done using logsums. Instead in project evaluation or appraisal, changes in transport costs and time (borrowing values of time from some source) are commonly used to get the traveller benefits. The paper contains a review of the theoretical and applied literature on the use of logsums as a measure of consumer surplus change in project appraisal and evaluation. It then goes on to describe a case study with the Dutch National Model System for transport in which the logsum method and the commonly used value of time method are compared for a specific project (high speed trains that would connect the four main cities in the Randstad: Amsterdam, The Hague, Rotterdam and Utrecht).

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There has been substantial discussion among planners about the influence of transport in residential location choices. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the importance of accessibility in explaining residential location choices. The paper addresses this issue by presenting and analyzing findings from the literature and results of a housing market estimation study in the Netherlands. The research findings for the Netherlands illustrate that the transport system influences residential moves at three stages: in move–stay choice, estimation results show that households are less likely to move away from a more accessible location; travel time variables are significant for all household types, and therefore changes in the transport system will affect the size of the housing market and search area of the households; the model estimation results suggest that accessibility of a specific location for many household types is not a significant variable in their location choice. Overall, the empirical results suggest that the role of accessibility is significant but small compared with the effect of demographic factors, neighborhood amenities, and dwelling attributes in explaining residential location choices. The empirical findings are confirmed by findings in the literature; the present results are located at the lower end of findings reported in the literature. An important factor contributing to this result is that accessibility changes among regions in the Netherlands are rather small.

In this paper, car ownership models that can be found in the literature (with a focus on the recent literature and on models developed for transport planning) are classified into a number of model types. The different model types are compared on a number of criteria: inclusion of demand and supply side of the car market, level of aggregation, dynamic or static model, long-run or short-run forecasts, theoretical background, inclusion of car use, data requirements, treatment of business cars, car type segmentation, inclusion of income, of fixed and/or variable car cost, of car quality aspects, of licence holding, of socio-demographic variables and of attitudinal variables, and treatment of scrappage.