Marie-Helene Lapointe’s scientific contributions

Sea stacks like the E.T. formation at Hopewell Rocks Provincial Park, New Brunswick, Cana-da, are one of the world’s most popular geotourism landmarks. Failure of sea stacks poses a risk to public safety; this study uses 3D Finite Element geomechanics numerical models with input from UAV-based photographs, 3D Structure-from-Motion photogrammetry models, and erosion records to predict time of failure of the E.T. formation. A novel aspect of this study is the comparison between simplified symmetric and more realistic asymmetric erosion patterns, and impacts on simulated stability. Using symmetrical erosion, the predicted time of failure is within the years 2071 and 2123, but asymmetric erosion models show significantly earlier failure that may occur between the years 2056 and 2078. Ongoing work aims to address sensitivities of input properties, and possible future accelerated erosion rates due to climate change.