Malin L. Pinsky's research while affiliated with Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey and other places

Publications (141)

Article
Obtaining dispersal estimates for a species is key to understanding local adaptation and population dynamics, and to implementing conservation actions. Genetic isolation‐by‐distance patterns can be used for estimating dispersal, and these patterns are especially useful for marine species in which few other methods are available. In this study, we g...
Article
As a consequence of anthropogenic climate change, marine species on continental shelves around the world are rapidly shifting deeper and poleward. However, whether these shifts deeper and poleward will allow species to access more, less, or equivalent amounts of continental shelf area and associated critical habitats remains unclear. By examining t...
Article
Society increasingly demands accurate predictions of complex ecosystem processes under novel conditions to address environmental challenges. However, obtaining the process‐level knowledge required to do so does not necessarily align with the burgeoning use in ecology of correlative model selection criteria, such as Akaike information criterion. The...
Article
Full-text available
Interest is growing in developing conservation strategies to restore and maintain coral reef ecosystems in the face of mounting anthropogenic stressors, particularly climate warming and associated mass bleaching events. One such approach is to propagate coral colonies ex situ and transplant them to degraded reef areas to augment habitat for reef‐de...
Article
A major challenge in modern biology is to understand extinction risk from climate change across all realms. Recent research has revealed that physiological tolerance, behavioral thermoregulation, and small elevation shifts are dominant coping strategies on land, whereas large-scale latitudinal shifts are more important in the ocean. Freshwater taxa...
Article
Model predicts a mass extinction event in the oceans if climate change is uncurbed
Article
Earlier maturation of Atlantic salmon is linked to indirect effects of fisheries on its prey
Article
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Species ranges are shifting in response to climate change, but most predictions disregard food-web interactions and, in particular, if and how such interactions change through time. Predator-prey interactions could speed up species range shifts through enemy release or create lags through biotic resistance. Here, we developed a spatially explicit m...
Article
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(read-only version: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/share/author/5KWZUPEPKC4RUVWP2YCS?target=10.1002/fsh.10695) The Ten Steps to Responsible Inland Fisheries are global recommendations to address the subordinate position of inland fisheries in sustainability dialogues. Regional and local perspectives are essential for implementing global initiativ...
Article
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Given climate change threats to ecosystems, it is critical to understand the responses of species to warming. This is especially important in the case of apex predators since they exhibit relatively high extinction risk, and changes to their distribution could impact predator–prey interactions that can initiate trophic cascades. Here we used a comb...
Article
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Marine mammals have been proposed as ecosystem sentinels due to their conspicuous nature, wide ranging distribution, and capacity to respond to changes in ecosystem structure and functioning. In southern European Atlantic waters, their response to climate variability has been little explored, partly because of the inherent difficulty of investigati...
Article
As climate change accelerates, species are shifting poleward and subtropical and tropical species are colonizing temperate environments. A popular approach for characterizing such responses is the community temperature index (CTI), which tracks the mean thermal affinity of a community. Studies in marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems have...
Article
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Emerging infectious diseases are significant threats to wildlife conservation, yet the impacts of pathogen exposure and infection can vary widely among host species. As such, conservation biologists and disease ecologists have increasingly aimed to understand species‐specific host susceptibility using molecular methods. In particular, comparative g...
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Explaining large-scale ordered patterns and their effects on ecosystem functioning is a fundamental and controversial challenge in ecology. Here, we coupled empirical and theoretical approaches to explore how competition and spatial heterogeneity govern the regularity of colony dispersion in fungus-farming termites. Individuals from different colon...
Article
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As species respond to warming water temperatures, fishers dependent upon such species are being compelled to make choices concerning harvest strategies. Should they “follow fish” to new fishing grounds? Should they change their mix of target species? Should they relocate their operations to new ports? We examined how fishing communities in the Nort...
Article
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Understanding how evolutionary forces interact to drive patterns of selection and distribute genetic variation across a species' range is of great interest in ecology and evolution, especially in an era of global change. While theory predicts how and when populations at range margins are likely to undergo local adaptation, empirical evidence testin...
Article
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Corals are experiencing unprecedented decline from climate change-induced mass bleaching events. Dispersal not only contributes to coral reef persistence through demographic rescue but can also hinder or facilitate evolutionary adaptation. Locations of reefs that are likely to survive future warming therefore remain largely unknown, particularly wi...
Article
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Determining metapopulation persistence requires understanding both demographic rates and patch connectivity. Persistence is well understood in theory but has proved challenging to test empirically for marine and other species with high connectivity that precludes classic colonisation–extinction dynamics. Here, we assessed persistence for a yellowta...
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Global environmental change is challenging species with novel conditions, such that demographic and evolutionary trajectories of populations are often shaped by the exchange of organisms and alleles across landscapes. Current ecological theory predicts that random networks with dispersal shortcuts connecting distant sites can promote persistence wh...
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The mode and extent of rapid evolution and genomic change in response to human harvesting are key conservation issues. Although experiments and models have shown a high potential for both genetic and phenotypic change in response to fishing, empirical examples of genetic responses in wild populations are rare. Here, we compare whole-genome sequence...
Article
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Understanding how community composition is reshaped by changing climate is important for interpreting and predicting patterns of community assembly through time or across space. Community composition often does not perfectly correspond to expectations from current environmental conditions, leading to community‐climate mismatches. Here, we combine d...
Article
Understanding the dynamics of species range edges in the modern era is key to addressing fundamental biogeographic questions about abiotic and biotic drivers of species distributions. Range edges are where colonization and extirpation processes unfold, and so these dynamics are also important to understand for effective natural resource management...
Article
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Although different fisheries can be tightly linked to each other by human and ecosystem processes, they are often managed independently. Synchronous fluctuations among fish populations or fishery catches can destabilize ecosystems and economies, respectively, but the degree of synchrony around the world remains unclear. We analyzed 1092 marine fish...
Preprint
Full-text available
Corals are experiencing unprecedented decline from climate change-induced mass bleaching events. Dispersal not only contributes to coral reef persistence through demographic rescue but can also hinder or facilitate evolutionary adaptation. Locations of reefs that are likely to survive future warming therefore remain largely unknown, particularly wi...
Article
Full-text available
Rapid evolution of advantageous traits following abrupt environmental change can help populations recover from demographic decline. However, for many introduced diseases affecting longer‐lived, slower reproducing hosts, mortality is likely to outpace the acquisition of adaptive de novo mutations. Adaptive alleles must therefore be selected from sta...
Article
Humans have a long history of extracting seemingly abundant resources from marine ecosystems. According to Ocean Recovery, fisheries can continue to provide sustainable nourishment and support global economies far into the future. The Hilborn duo take on the complexities of the past, present, and future of marine resource management from the perspe...
Preprint
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Recent research provides an unprecedented account of the diversity and biomass of life, but the data also suggest unexplained patterns such as the co-dominance of very different life forms. We compile the planetary body size biomass spectrum across all taxa and investigate possible underlying forces. We find that small (10-14 g) and large (106 g) o...
Article
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Coral reefs are among the many communities believed to exhibit regime shifts between alternative stable states, single‐species dominance, and coexistence. Proposed drivers of regime shifts include changes in grazing, spatial clustering, and ocean temperature. Here, we distill the dynamic regimes of coral–macroalgal interaction into a three‐dimensio...
Article
Full-text available
Marine biota are redistributing at a rapid pace in response to climate change and shifting seascapes. While changes in fish populations and community structure threaten the sustainability of fisheries, our capacity to adapt by tracking and projecting marine species remains a challenge due to data discontinuities in biological observations, lack of...
Article
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Societies increasingly use multisector ocean planning as a tool to mitigate conflicts over space in the sea, but such plans can be highly sensitive to species redistribution driven by climate change or other factors. A key uncertainty is whether planning ahead for future species redistributions imposes high opportunity costs and sharp trade-offs ag...
Article
Dispersal drives diverse processes from population persistence to community dynamics. However, the amount of temporal variation in dispersal and its consequences for metapopulation dynamics is largely unknown for organisms with environmentally driven dispersal (e.g., many marine larvae, arthropods and plant seeds). Here, we used genetic parentage a...
Article
Observational evidence shows marine species are shifting their geographic distribution in response to warming ocean temperatures. These shifts have implications for the US fisheries and seafood consumers. The analysis presented here employs a two-stage inverse demand model to estimate the consumer welfare impacts of projected increases or decreases...
Preprint
Full-text available
A key problem in computational sustainability is to understand the distribution of species across landscapes over time. This question gives rise to challenging large-scale prediction problems since (i) hundreds of species have to be simultaneously modeled and (ii) the survey data are usually inflated with zeros due to the absence of species for a l...
Article
Full-text available
Marine biota are redistributing at a rapid pace in response to climate change and shifting seascapes. While changes in fish populations and community structure threaten the sustainability of fisheries, our capacity to adapt by tracking and projecting marine species remains a challenge due to data discontinuities in biological observations, lack of...
Preprint
Dispersal drives diverse processes from population persistence to community dynamics. However, the amount of temporal variation in dispersal and its consequences for metapopulation dynamics is largely unknown for organisms with environmentally driven dispersal (e.g., many marine larvae, arthropods, and plant seeds). Here, we quantify variation in t...
Article
Projections of climate change impacts on living resources are being conducted frequently, and the goal is often to inform policy. Species projections will be more useful if uncertainty is effectively quantified. However, few studies have comprehensively characterized the projection uncertainty arising from greenhouse gas scenarios, Earth system mod...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
A key problem in computational sustainability is to understand the distribution of species across landscapes over time. This question gives rise to challenging large-scale prediction problems since (i) hundreds of species have to be simultaneously modeled and (ii) the survey data are usually inflated with zeros due to the absence of species for a l...
Preprint
Full-text available
Marine biota is redistributing at a rapid pace in response to climate change and shifting seascapes. While changes in fish populations and community structure threaten the sustainability of fisheries, our capacity to adapt by tracking and projecting marine species remains a challenge due to data discontinuities in biological observations, lack of d...
Article
Rapid climate changes are currently driving substantial reorganizations of marine ecosystems around the world. A key question is how these changes will alter the provision of ecosystem services from the ocean, particularly from fisheries. To answer this question, we need to understand not only the ecological dynamics of marine systems, but also hum...
Article
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One of the aims of the United Nations (UN) negotiations on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biodiversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ) is to develop a legal process for the establishment of area-based management tools, including marine protected areas, in ABNJ. Here we use a conservation planning algorithm to integrate...
Article
Dispersal sets the fundamental scales of ecological and evolutionary dynamics and has important implications for population persistence. Patterns of marine dispersal remain poorly understood, partly because dispersal may vary through time and often homogenizes allele frequencies. However, combining multiple types of natural tags can provide more pr...
Preprint
Full-text available
Multiple attractors and alternative stable states are defining features of scientific theories in ecology and evolution, implying that abrupt regime shifts can occur and that outcomes can be hard to reverse. Here we describe a statistical inferential framework that uses independent, noisy observations with low temporal resolution to support or refu...
Article
Species around the world are shifting their ranges in response to climate change. To make robust predictions about climate‐related colonizations and extinctions, it is vital to understand the dynamics of range edges. This study is among the first to examine annual dynamics of cold and warm range edges, as most global change studies average observat...
Preprint
Full-text available
Coral reefs are among the many communities believed to exhibit regime shifts between alternative stable states, single-species dominance, and coexistence. Proposed drivers of regime shifts include changes in grazing, spatial clustering, and ocean temperature. Here we distill the dynamic regimes of coral-macroalgal interaction into a three-dimension...
Article
The geographic distributions of marine species are changing rapidly, with leading range edges following climate poleward, deeper, and in other directions and trailing range edges often contracting in similar directions. These shifts have their roots in fine-scale interactions between organisms and their environment—including mosaics and gradients o...
Article
Fishing communities are increasingly required to adapt to environmentally driven changes in the availability of fish stocks. Here, we examined trends in the distribution and biomass of five commercial target species (dover sole, thornyheads, sablefish, lingcod, and petrale sole) on the US west coast to determine how their availability to fishing po...
Article
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As ocean temperatures rise, species distributions are tracking towards historically cooler regions in line with their thermal affinity1,2. However, different responses of species to warming and changed species interactions make predicting biodiversity redistribution and relative abundance a challenge3,4. Here, we use three decades of fish and plank...
Article
The world is rapidly changing, and biotic resources and their users are adapting. Determining how ecological and economic interactions determine the outcomes of this adaptation is critical to understanding the future of natural resources. We model a two-species fisheries as a stylized system to investigate the adaptation strategies of a harvester f...
Article
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Szuwalski argues that varying age structure can affect surplus production and that recruitment is a better metric of productivity. We explain how our null model controlled for age structure and other processes as explanations for the temperature-production relationship. Surplus production includes growth, recruitment, and other processes and provid...
Article
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Ecosystems around the world are reorganizing due to climate change¹, motivating management responses to facilitate species persistence and maintain ecological functions. Spatial management actions are generally undertaken to relieve local stressors on populations and have recently been suggested as an approach to facilitate species range shifts, pr...
Article
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Climate change is expected to have a profound impact on the distribution, abundance and diversity of marine species globally1,2. These ecological impacts of climate change will affect human communities dependent on fisheries for livelihoods and well-being³. While methods for assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change are rapidly devel...
Article
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Understanding which species and ecosystems will be most severely affected by warming as climate change advances is important for guiding conservation and management. Both marine and terrestrial fauna have been affected by warming1,2 but an explicit comparison of physiological sensitivity between the marine and terrestrial realms has been lacking. A...
Article
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Climate change is altering habitats for marine fishes and invertebrates, but the net effect of these changes on potential food production is unknown. We used temperature-dependent population models to measure the influence of warming on the productivity of 235 populations of 124 species in 38 ecoregions. Some populations responded significantly pos...
Article
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In this period of environmental change, understanding how resource users respond to such changes is critical for effective resource management and adaptation planning. Extensive work has focused on natural resource responses to environmental changes, but less has examined the response of resource users to such changes. We used an interdisciplinary...
Article
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Change, adaptation, and resilience have emerged as central concerns in the study of natural resource governance. The mobility of fisheries makes them particularly dynamic and susceptible to long term drivers of movement, such as changing climatic conditions and human pressures. To explore how movement impacts resource systems, this paper presents a...
Article
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Understanding why some renewable resources are overharvested while others are conserved remains an important challenge. Most explanations focus on institutional or ecological differences among resources. Here, we provide theoretical and empirical evidence that conservation and overharvest can be alternative stable states within the same exclusive-r...
Preprint
Full-text available
Evolutionary rescue can in theory help populations avoid extinction after abrupt environmental change through the rapid evolution of advantageous traits that promote population growth. However, evolutionary rescue is thought to be rare in taxa with long generation times because demographic declines towards extirpation are likely to outpace the acqu...
Article
Full-text available
Rapid environmental change is altering the selective pressures experienced by marine species. While adaptation to local environmental conditions depends on a balance between dispersal and natural selection across the seascape, the spatial scale of adaptation and the relative importance of mechanisms maintaining adaptation in the ocean are not well...
Article
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The ocean is a critical source of nutrition for billions of people, with potential to yield further food, profits, and employment in the future (1). But fisheries face a serious new challenge as climate change drives the ocean to conditions not experienced historically. Local, national, regional, and international fisheries are substantially underp...
Poster
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The ability to detect synchrony in marine time-series is important because of portfolio effects and population stability. The use of non-linear methods to detect synchrony is useful because synchrony can occur on different timescales (i.e. frequencies), which may obscure detection from traditional linear methods. We show that wavelet analysis is us...
Data
List of projected species. The proportion of deviance explained for each GAM habitat model (presence-absence and biomass) along with the geographic region used to group each species, the level of projection uncertainty, and the mean and standard deviation of projections in both distance shifted (km) and change in habitat availability (%) over the c...