Madison M. Douglas’s research while affiliated with Massachusetts Institute of Technology and other places

The rate of river migration affects the stability of Arctic infrastructure and communities1,2 and regulates the fluxes of carbon3,4, nutrients⁵ and sediment6,7 to the oceans. However, predicting how the pace of river migration will change in a warming Arctic⁸ has so far been stymied by conflicting observations about whether permafrost⁹ primarily acts to slow10,11 or accelerate12,13 river migration. Here we develop new computational methods that enable the detection of riverbank erosion at length scales 5–10 times smaller than the pixel size in satellite imagery, an innovation that unlocks the ability to quantify erosion at the sub-monthly timescales when rivers undergo their largest variations in water temperature and flow. We use these high-frequency observations to constrain the extent to which erosion is limited by the thermal condition of melting the pore ice that cements bank sediment¹⁴, a requirement that will disappear when permafrost thaws, versus the mechanical condition of having sufficient flow to transport the sediment comprising the riverbanks, a condition experienced by all rivers¹⁵. Analysis of high-resolution data from the Koyukuk River, Alaska, shows that the presence of permafrost reduces erosion rates by 47%. Using our observations, we calibrate and validate a numerical model that can be applied to diverse Arctic rivers. The model predicts that full permafrost thaw may lead to a 30–100% increase in the migration rates of Arctic rivers.

Rapid warming in the Arctic threatens to destabilize mercury (Hg) deposits contained within soils in permafrost regions. Yet current estimates of the amount of Hg in permafrost vary by ∼4 times. Moreover, how Hg will be released to the environment as permafrost thaws remains poorly known, despite threats to water quality, human health, and the environment. Here we present new measurements of total mercury (THg) contents in discontinuous permafrost in the Yukon River Basin in Alaska. We collected riverbank and floodplain sediments from exposed banks and bars near the villages of Huslia and Beaver. Median THg contents were 49⁺¹³/−21 ng THg g sediment⁻¹ and 39⁺¹⁶/−18 ng THg g sediment⁻¹ for Huslia and Beaver, respectively (uncertainties as 15th and 85th percentiles). Corresponding THg:organic carbon ratios were 5.4+2.0/−2.4 Gg THg Pg C⁻¹ and 4.2 +2.4/−2.9 Gg THg Pg C⁻¹. To constrain floodplain THg stocks, we combined measured THg contents with floodplain stratigraphy. Trends of THg increasing with smaller sediment size and calculated stocks in the upper 1 m and 3 m are similar to those suggested for this region by prior pan-Arctic studies. We combined THg stocks and river migration rates derived from remote sensing to estimate particulate THg erosional and depositional fluxes as river channels migrate across the floodplain. Results show similar fluxes within uncertainty into the river from erosion at both sites (95⁺¹²/−47 kg THg yr⁻¹ and 26⁺¹⁵⁴/−13 kg THg yr⁻¹ at Huslia and Beaver, respectively), but different fluxes out of the river via deposition in aggrading bars (60⁺⁴⁰/−29 kg THg yr⁻¹ and 10+5.3/−1.7 kg THg yr⁻¹). Thus, a significant amount of THg is liberated from permafrost during bank erosion, while a variable but generally lesser portion is subsequently redeposited by migrating rivers.

Vegetation is thought to be a main source of riverbank cohesion, enabling meandering and a deposit architecture characterized by sandy channel belts isolated in mudstone. However, early Earth and Mars had meandering rivers without vegetation, implying that other sources of bank strength can allow meandering with potentially different deposit characteristics. Here we studied the Amargosa River in Death Valley, California, USA, as a modern analog of meandering rivers without vegetation. We monitored flow and erosion at two bends and used radiocarbon dating of strandlines to quantify flood frequency. We also sampled cutbank mud and constrained an erosion theory using flume experiments. Cutbank erosion occurred for floods with >2 yr recurrence intervals, and 18 cm occurred for an ∼6 yr reoccurrence, bankfull event. Mud set the rate of meander migration: salt crusts rapidly and completely dissolved during floods, vegetation was absent, and mud entrainment theory matched observed erosion rates. Flood-frequency analysis showed that most bank erosion occurs at flows below bankfull, challenging the threshold channel hypothesis. We used meander migration rates to constrain the time scale of channel-belt formation and compared it to the time scale of avulsion. These calculations, combined with floodplain facies mapping and core sedimentology, indicated a likely deposit architecture of sandy point bar accretion sets intermixed with muddy overbank facies. This deposit architecture is characteristic of vegetated meandering rivers, but due to muddy banks, occurred for the Amargosa River in the absence of plants.

Permafrost influences 25% of land in the Northern Hemisphere, where it stabilizes the ground beneath communities and infrastructure and sequesters carbon. However, the coevolution of permafrost, river dynamics, and vegetation in Arctic environments remains poorly understood. As rivers meander, they erode the floodplain at cutbanks and build new land through bar deposition, creating sequences of landforms with distinct formation ages. Here we mapped these sequences along the Koyukuk River floodplain, Alaska, analyzing permafrost occurrence, and landform and vegetation types. We used radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating to develop a floodplain age map. Deposit ages ranged from modern to 10 ka, with more younger deposits near the modern channel. Permafrost rapidly reached 50% areal extent in all deposits older than 200 years then gradually increased up to ∼85% extent for deposits greater than 4 Kyr old. Permafrost extent correlated with increases in black spruce and wetland abundance, as well as increases in permafrost extent within wetland, and shrub and scrub vegetation classes. We developed an inverse model to constrain permafrost formation rate as a function of air temperature. Permafrost extent initially increased by ∼25% per century, in pace with vegetation succession, before decelerating to <10% per millennia as insulating overbank mud and moss slowly accumulated. Modern permafrost extent on the Koyukuk floodplain therefore reflects a dynamic balance between widespread, time‐varying permafrost formation and rapid, localized degradation due to cutbank erosion that might trigger a rapid loss of permafrost with climatic warming.

Mars has many well‐exposed fluvial ridges and fluvio‐deltaic basins; in two of these locations, the Curiosity and Perseverance rovers are currently searching for signs of habitability. The distribution of organic carbon that might persist in ancient fluvial deposits present on Mars is not well understood. In this study, we set out to assess the preservation potential of organic carbon in a hyperarid fluvial environment with observations and analyses of the Amargosa River in Death Valley, California (United States). The lower reaches of the Amargosa River in Badwater Basin are nearly devoid of plants and contain low gradient, meandering channels, making them a valuable terrestrial analog for early martian fluvial systems. We analyzed sediment taken from fluvial deposits exposed in cutbanks of two bends of a meandering channel. We found total organic carbon abundances that were on average 0.15% up to a meter below the surface. X‐ray diffraction and electron microscopy analyses revealed a suite of high redox potential mineral phases (including iron and manganese oxides) mixed with detrital and authigenic silicates, carbonate, and sulfate salts at or close to redox equilibrium with pore fluids in contact with the atmosphere. This finding highlighted that organic carbon can persist in fluvial deposits at low abundance despite oxidizing conditions and saturated sediments and suggested that ancient fluvial deposits on Mars may retain traces of organics in fine‐grained deposits if they are present during deposition.

How will bank erosion rates in Arctic rivers respond to a warming climate? Existing physical models predict that bank erosion rates should increase with water temperature as permafrost thaws more rapidly. However, the same theory predicts much faster erosion than is typically observed. We propose that these models are missing a key component: a layer of thawed sediment on the bank that buffers heat transfer and slows erosion. We developed a 1D model for this thawed layer, which reveals three regimes for permafrost riverbank erosion. Thaw‐limited erosion occurs in the absence of a thawed layer, such that rapid pore‐ice melting sets the pace of erosion, consistent with existing models. Entrainment‐limited erosion occurs when pore‐ice melting outpaces bank erosion, resulting in a thawed layer, and the relatively slow entrainment of sediment sets the pace of erosion similar to non‐permafrost rivers. Third, the intermediate regime occurs when the thawed layer goes through cycles of thickening and failure, leading to a transient thermal buffer that slows thaw rates. Distinguishing between these regimes is important because thaw‐limited erosion is highly sensitive to water temperature, whereas entrainment‐limited erosion is not. Interestingly, the buffered regime produces a thawed layer and relatively slow erosion rates like the entrainment‐limited regime, but erosion rates are temperature sensitive like the thaw‐limited regime. The results suggest the potential for accelerating erosion in a warming Arctic where bank erosion is presently thaw‐limited or buffered. Moreover, rivers can experience all regimes annually and transition between regimes with warming, altering their sensitivity to climate change.

Permafrost degradation is altering biogeochemical processes throughout the Arctic. Thaw‐induced changes in organic matter transformations and mineral weathering reactions are impacting fluxes of inorganic carbon (IC) and alkalinity (ALK) in Arctic rivers. However, the net impact of these changing fluxes on the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (pCO2) is relatively unconstrained. Resolving this uncertainty is important as thaw‐driven changes in the fluxes of IC and ALK could produce feedbacks in the global carbon cycle. Enhanced production of sulfuric acid through sulfide oxidation is particularly poorly quantified despite its potential to remove ALK from the ocean‐atmosphere system and increase pCO2, producing a positive feedback leading to more warming and permafrost degradation. In this work, we quantified weathering in the Koyukuk River, a major tributary of the Yukon River draining discontinuous permafrost in central Alaska, based on water and sediment samples collected near the village of Huslia in summer 2018. Using measurements of major ion abundances and sulfate (SO42− ${{\text{SO}}_{4}}^{2-}$) sulfur (³⁴S/³²S) and oxygen (¹⁸O/¹⁶O) isotope ratios, we employed the MEANDIR inversion model to quantify the relative importance of a suite of weathering processes and their net impact on pCO2. Calculations found that approximately 80% of SO42− ${{\text{SO}}_{4}}^{2-}$ in mainstem samples derived from sulfide oxidation with the remainder from evaporite dissolution. Moreover, ³⁴S/³²S ratios, ¹³C/¹²C ratios of dissolved IC, and sulfur X‐ray absorption spectra of mainstem, secondary channel, and floodplain pore fluid and sediment samples revealed modest degrees of microbial sulfate reduction within the floodplain. Weathering fluxes of ALK and IC result in lower values of pCO2 over timescales shorter than carbonate compensation (∼10⁴ yr) and, for mainstem samples, higher values of pCO2 over timescales longer than carbonate compensation but shorter than the residence time of marine SO42− ${{\text{SO}}_{4}}^{2-}$ (∼10⁷ yr). Furthermore, the absolute concentrations of SO42− ${{\text{SO}}_{4}}^{2-}$ and Mg²⁺ in the Koyukuk River, as well as the ratios of SO42− ${{\text{SO}}_{4}}^{2-}$ and Mg²⁺ to other dissolved weathering products, have increased over the past 50 years. Through analogy to similar trends in the Yukon River, we interpret these changes as reflecting enhanced sulfide oxidation due to ongoing exposure of previously frozen sediment and changes in the contributions of shallow and deep flow paths to the active channel. Overall, these findings confirm that sulfide oxidation is a substantial outcome of permafrost degradation and that the sulfur cycle responds to permafrost thaw with a timescale‐dependent feedback on warming.

Permafrost thaw is hypothesized to increase riverbank erosion rates, which threatens Arctic communities and infrastructure. However, existing erosion models have not been tested against controlled flume experiments with open‐channel flow past an erodible, hydraulically rough permafrost bank. We conducted temperature‐controlled flume experiments where turbulent water eroded laterally into riverbanks consisting of sand and pore ice. The experiments were designed to produce ablation‐limited erosion such that any thawed sediment was quickly transported away from the bank. Bank erosion rates increased linearly with water temperature, decreased with pore ice content, and were insensitive to changes in bank temperature, consistent with theory. However, erosion rates were approximately a factor of three greater than expected. The heightened erosion rates were due to a greater coefficient of heat transfer from the turbulent water to the permafrost bank caused by bank grain roughness. A revised ablation‐limited bank erosion model with a heat transfer coefficient that includes bank roughness matched our experimental results well. Results indicate that bank erosion along Arctic rivers can accelerate under scenarios of warming river water temperatures for cases where the cadence of bank erosion is set by pore‐ice melting rather than sediment entrainment.

Whether permafrost systematically alters the rate of riverbank erosion is a fundamental geomorphic question with significant importance to infrastructure, water quality, and biogeochemistry of high‐latitude watersheds. For over four decades, this question has remained unanswered due to a lack of data. Using remotely sensed imagery, we addressed this knowledge gap by quantifying riverbank erosion rates across the Arctic and subarctic. To compare these rates to non‐permafrost rivers, we assembled a global data set of published riverbank erosion rates. We found that erosion rates in rivers influenced by permafrost are on average nine times lower than non‐permafrost systems; erosion rate differences increase up to 40 times for the largest rivers. To test alternative hypotheses for the observed erosion rate difference, we examined differences in total water yield and erosional efficiency between these rivers and non‐permafrost rivers. Neither of these factors nor differences in river sediment loads provided compelling alternative explanations, leading us to conclude that permafrost limits riverbank erosion rates. This conclusion was supported by field investigations of rates and patterns of erosion along three rivers flowing through discontinuous permafrost in Alaska. Our results show that permafrost limits maximum bank erosion rates on rivers with stream powers greater than 900 Wm⁻¹. On smaller rivers, however, hydrology rather than thaw rate may be the dominant control on bank erosion. Our findings suggest that Arctic warming and hydrological changes should increase bank erosion rates on large rivers but may reduce rates on rivers with drainage areas less than a few thousand km².

Plain Language Summary Riverbank erosion in the Arctic is a major hazard for riverside communities and infrastructure. Arctic rivers flow through regions of permanently frozen ground, and this ground is thawing as the climate warms. Therefore, there is major concern that riverbank erosion will accelerate in the future because the ground loses its strength when thawed. However, in order for a riverbank to erode, the river must satisfy two conditions: it must thaw the frozen ground and entrain the thawed sand and mud. Our model and analyses suggest that riverbank erosion in many Arctic rivers can be limited by the river's ability to entrain and transport the sand and mud, rather than the canonical view that erosion is limited by the rate of ground thaw. Applying our model to the Yukon River indicates that thaw rates are so fast that they cannot set the rate of erosion for the melt season. Instead, bank erosion for part of the time is controlled by the ability of the river to move the bank sediment, making riverbank erosion less sensitive to warming river waters.