MANUEL HIDALGO’s research while affiliated with University Carlos III de Madrid and other places

This article analyzes the case of an electoral autocracy, that of Venezuela, which is moving between seeking formal legitimacy through the re-election of its leader and greater autocratization in the face of the risk of losing power as a consequence of losing electoral competitiveness. In this situation, when leaders lose much of their popularity, the question of the availability of economic resources to maintain the electoral machinery and feed patronage networks becomes more important. When the above fails, as it did in Venezuela in 2023, the government becomes much more dependent on repression and its progressive autocratization in order to survive. This opens up a not very encouraging dynamic for the maintenance of Chavismo in power in the medium term, especially when there are upcoming critical elections, such as the presidential elections to be held in Venezuela in 2024, although in the short term the outcome will largely depend on how Chavismo and the opposition play their cards.