M. Ch. Zalikhanov’s research while affiliated with The Mountain Institute and other places

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Publications (4)


About the ice-rock collapse from the northern slope of Mt. Dykhtau on August 12, 2023 and the potential threat of collapse from the slope of Mt. Dzhangitau (Cherek-Bezengiysky River basin, Central Caucasus)
  • Article

November 2024

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12 Reads

Journal Ice and Snow

M. Yu. Bekkiev

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M. Ch. Zalikhanov

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[...]

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A. R. Akaev

The causes and consequences of the ice-rock fall that occurred in 2023 on the Mount Dykhtau (Side ridge of the Greater Caucasus) are analyzed. This happened in the early morning of August 12, 2023 on the northern slope of Mt. Dykhtau (5.204.7 m a.s.l.) in the upper reaches of the Mizhirgi River valley of the Cherek Bezengiysky River basin at the altitude of about 4.400 m. The analysis of Sentinel-2 and Landsat-7 ETM+ satellite images of different times made possible to reveal the place where a block of ice had fallen from the hanging glacier, and to determine the area affected by this ice-rock block which volume was estimated as close to 0.9-1.0 million m3 and a distance of the runout about 2.3 km. As a result of the collapse, a group of tourists were injured, one of whom died. Investigation of the dynamics of the collapse site for the period 2015–2023 showed that earlier in the period September 3 – November 12, 2015 a crack formed on the same hanging glacier massif, which continued to grow until January 2016. This was followed by several ice-rock falls, the largest of which happened in the period April 10 – June 19, 2016. In total, all collapses of 2016 were comparable in volume to the collapse of 2023. By this time, the hanging glacier had been fully restored and occupied the same position it had in 2015. We next investigated a part of the slope of the Dzhangitau Zapadnaya mountain (5059 m a.s.l.) on the Bezengi Wall massif, on the hanging glacier of which the formation of a crack with a length of about 400 m was revealed in the summer of 2023. By September, the crack width had increased to 40 m. Leyer on, the crack became stable. But in the period of September ‒ December a certain surge of the glacier at the foot of Dzhangitau Zapadnaya mountain was revealed at a speed of about 1 m per day with the formation of a prominent frontal bank overlying the Bezengi Glacier. This research confirmed the activation of the landslide processes in the high-altitude zone and showed the need for continuous monitoring based on the analysis of satellite images for the timely revealing areas with a potential threat of any ice-rock falls and warning about the danger.


Debris flow processes on lateral moraines of mountain glaciers (analytical review)

August 2024

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11 Reads

As a result of climate change there have been high rates of degradation of mountain glaciers in recent years. During deglaciation in the territories previously occupied by glaciers, moraines of various morphogenetic types remain deposited by them, connected with massifs of glacial-colluvial and other deposits. The most actively involved in debris flow processes are massifs of terminal moraines with extended steep ledges, on which debris flow cuts and furrows develop. Much less often, debris flow original sites are formed on lateral moraines, but debris flows can reach catastrophic proportions. The analysis of publications and of multi-time satellite images revealed data on the formation of debris flow original sites of various types in the areas of lateral moraines of mountain glaciers, pockets of lateral moraines filled with slope and glacial deposits, as well as lakes and streams inside them. Similar debris flow original sites have been characterized for the Central Caucasus, the Andes, the Hindu Kush, the Himalayas and Tibet. The largest debris flow disasters with original sites in areas of lateral moraines were outbursts of Palcacocha lakes in Peru in 1941 and Chorabari in India in 2013 with a death toll of up to 6054, as well as the outburst of South Lhonak Lake in Sikkim (India) in 2023. In areas of lateral moraines of valley glaciers connected with moraine pedestals of former tributary glaciers, the volume of mass transport of debris flows can reach 6.5 million m3 (lateral moraine of the Gangotri glacier in the Himalayas in 2017). The progress of debris flow processes on lateral moraines of mountain glaciers must be taken into account when developing mountain territories both in areas near lateral moraines and at a considerable distance from them.


Analysis of the dynamics of mudflows amid climate changes in the high mountain zone of Kabardino-Balkaria

January 2024

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1 Citation

Nauka Innovatsii Tekhnologii

The object of the study is a dangerous slope phenomenon (mudflow) in the mountains of the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic (KBR) against the background of changing climatic conditions of the warm season (May-September). The paper presents the results of statistical, frequency and regression analysis of the dynamics of the number of mudflows, precipitation amounts, and average temperatures in the high-mountain zone of the KBR in the period 1953–2015. Statistical analysis of time series was carried out using the SPSS 20.0 software package. Linear trends were generated using Excel built-in LINEST worksheet function. The efficiency (coefficient of determination R2 ) and quality of regression models in general and by parameters were assessed using the Fisher test (F) and their significance (Sig.). The t-test was used to identify statistical equality or inequality of means between two periods. It was found that in the period 1953–2015 there was a slight increase in precipitation and average temperature. When analyzing the statistics of series in two periods 1953–1984 and 1984–2015, it was found that the average and total characteristics of the number of mudflows, precipitation and temperatures increase in the second period. Frequency analysis showed that out of 499 cases of mudflows over 63 years, 32% occurred in 9 cases per season (May-September). Frequency analysis confirmed the homogeneity of the distribution of precipitation amounts: in almost 60% of cases, the precipitation amount varies in a narrow range from 92.7 mm to 104.1 mm. For a number of temperatures, the most common (37%) was the average temperature of the warm season t = 10.2 °C; 31% corresponded to the temperature range from 10.7 °C to 11.8 °C. The analysis allows us to talk about an increase in the frequency of dangerous slope phenomena against the background of modern climate change, including in the high mountains.


POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTH OF THE EUROPEAN TERRITORY OF RUSSIA
  • Article
  • Full-text available

January 2021

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3 Reads

Успехи современного естествознания (Advances in Current Natural Sciences)

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Citations (1)


... Как известно, модели временных рядов применяются в исследованиях динамики значительного числа реальных процессов различной природы. В статье [6] были определены некоторые количественные характеристики рядов селевых сходов, средней температуры и сумм осадков в высокогорной зоне КБР, построены линейные тренды, характеризующие долговременную изменчивость исследуемых рядов в теплые сезоны 1953-2015 гг. Под долговременной изменчивостью понимается вклад в процесс изменения параметров ряда либо тренда, либо долговременного колебания, то есть колебания с периодом, гораздо больше одного года. ...

Reference:

Sinusoidal regression model for assessment of mudflows dynamics
Analysis of the dynamics of mudflows amid climate changes in the high mountain zone of Kabardino-Balkaria
  • Citing Article
  • January 2024

Nauka Innovatsii Tekhnologii