M. B. Ashabokova’s scientific contributions

The results of analyzing the impact of climate change on crop production conditions in the foothill and plain climatic zones of the North Caucasus are presented. For this purpose, using data from meteorological stations located in these climatic zones, the values of the hydrothermal coefficient of hydration for the time period 1961-2022 were determined. The results of analysis and forecasting of time series of this coefficient showed that the consequence of climate change in the region is a rapid deterioration of agricultural production conditions, namely, a decrease in soil moisture content.

The increase in mean and extreme temperatures against the background of almost unchanged precipitation in the south of the European territory of Russia (ETR) leads to a number of changes affecting agricultural production. The combination of such unfavorable environmental factors as high temperature and water shortage can have a relatively short-term, but strong impact on the crop industry with long-term consequences. It is expected that, taking into account current trends in climate change, the foothill and plane zones in the south of the ETR will be in an arid zone. Thus water scarcity has been and remains a critical factor in determining crop production in the region. The paper discusses the mechanisms of the impact of climate change on agriculture. It is noted that the relevance of developing effective and cost-effective for practical use methods to reduce risks in this industry associated with extreme weather events, including droughts, is increasing and becoming an essential condition for ensuring the country's food security. The features of information support of the problem of developing models for reducing risks associated with droughts are noted. A method for reducing agricultural losses associated with this weather event is outlined. It is based on exploiting the different vulnerabilities of crops by hazardous weather events. The possibilities of practical use of the method under conditions of climate change are touched upon, and the main tasks arising along this path are discussed. The results of model calculations, which were carried out in order to study the effectiveness of the method, are presented. It is noted that, on the basis of the proposed approach, flexible and quickly responding to changes in the conditions for the functioning of agriculture, systems can be created to reduce the loss of agriculture from adverse weather events.

An analysis of the mechanisms of climate change impact on demographic processes and human health is presented. An approach to studying the sensitivity of demographic processes to variations in indicators characterizing the state of the economy, social sphere and environment is outlined. It is based on the construction of integral functions for demographic indicators and the study of their sensitivity to variations in the indicators. The results of model calculations carried out to study the feasibility of the approach are presented.

Ключевыми проблемами обеспечения условий развития общества в настоящее времястановятся адаптация различных сфер деятельности к изменению климата и снижениерисков, связанных с опасными погодными явлениями. В статье обсуждаются возможныеподходы к снижению рисков в сельском хозяйстве, связанных с градобитиями, затронутыособенности их информационного обеспечения. Предложены один метод решения даннойзадачи и модель для его реализации, разработанная в рамках теории принятия решений. Ме-тод решения задачи отнесен нами к "пассивным" методам, которые не предполагают вме-шательства в процессы формирования градовых осадков в облаках. В качестве механизмаснижения рисков в предложенном методе используется тот факт, что уязвимость сельско-хозяйственных культур градом различна для различных культур. Соответственно, управле-ние рисками осуществляется путем подбора структуры производства сельскохозяйствен-ных культур с учетом особенностей их уязвимости данным погодным явлением, а такжеусловиями, наложенными на объемы производства сельскохозяйственной продукции. В ста-тье обсуждаются основные задачи, возникающие на пути практического использования дан-ного метода. Для анализа эффективности метода для производственно-экономических усло-вий степной климатической зоны Кабардино-Балкарской республики проведены модельныерасчеты. При этом для определения возможных состояний градовых процессов была исполь-зована частота выпадения града (число дней с градом на рассматриваемой территории загод). Пользуясь временным рядом данного показателя за период 1958-2018 гг., частота выпа-дения града в рассматриваемой климатической зоне была представлена в виде дискретнойслучайной величины с известным законом распределения. Это дало возможность рассматри-вать задачу снижения потерь сельского хозяйства как задачу принятия решений в условияхриска. Результаты модельных расчетов показали высокую эффективность метода для сни-жения потерь сельского хозяйства от градобитий. Важным достоинством метода являет-ся то, что практическое его использование будет связано с незначительными затратами.

It is noted that the peculiarity of the current stage of society development is that it is under the influence of such a global factor as global climate change, which poses a threat not only to the development, but also to the existence of society. The possible consequences of this factor for the development of society are noted. It is proposed to consider the problem of confronting the effects of climate change as a problem of creating a hierarchical life support system. The algorithms for creating such systems are discussed, and it is noted that they should be based on the use of strategies for the development of systems of different levels (federal, regional and sectoral). The elements of systems of different hierarchical levels are defined. It is noted that when creating such systems it is important to take into account the interaction of elements of different levels, as well as its optimisation.

Introduction. The article analyzes the changes in moisture content of the soil in the south of the European territory of Russia (ETR) associated with climate warming. It is shown that both in the foothill and steppe climatic zones there is a tendency to decrease this parameter, which greatly increases the relevance of developing methods to reduce risks in agriculture associated with droughts. A model based on different vulnerability of agricultural crops to this dangerous weather phenomenon is presented, the results of model calculations for the conditions of the steppe zone of the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic (KBR) are presented. Materials and research methods. When conducting research, the Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient was used as an indicator characterizing the moisture content of the soil. The values of this coefficient were calculated using data from 13 weather stations on the amount of precipitation and air temperature for 1961-2018. The development of a risk reduction model in this paper is considered within the framework of decision theory. As a target in the problem, you can use a function that describes the gain or loss of agriculture. Using this method of choosing an action to reduce risks avoids the formation of a set of actions from which it is necessary to choose the most appropriate one. Research results and their discussion. The results of the calculations carried out in the work showed that the consequence of climate change in the south of the EPR will be a significant deterioration in the conditions for the production of agricultural products. The consequences of such a trend will be extremely negative for agricultural production in the area. As a result of solving the problem, it is possible to determine the optimal structure of crop production from the point of view of the criterion used, taking into account the probability of droughts. As such a criterion, the maximum expected volume of crop production was used, taking into account the impact of droughts. Conclusions. A method has been proposed to reduce the losses of agriculture from droughts, taking into account their different vulnerability to various crops. The model was written in the framework of linear programming, which makes it possible to determine the optimal structure of agricultural production in terms of the criterion used. The method can be used in regions with different production and economic conditions.

The purpose of the work is to analyze the problem of adaptation of various fields of activity to climate change, to formulate the tasks of adapting the agro-industrial complex (AIC) and to analyze the features of information support and methods for solving the tasks of its adaptation plan, to develop a method for solving one of the tasks of this plan the formation and coordination of target indicators of the development of the agro-industrial complex. To solve the above problems, the results of the analysis of climate change in the territory of the North Caucasus, the model for optimizing the functioning of the “crop industry—processing industry” system, developed to form and agree on target indicators for the development of the regional agro-industrial complex, were used. It is noted that at the regional level it is not advisable to limit adaptation to climate change only to agriculture, this problem at this level should be considered for the “agriculture—processing industry” system, taking into account the relationship between its elements, the goals of adapting this system to climate change are formulated. The formulations of the tasks of the adaptation plan for the regional agro-industrial complex are given, the approach to solving the problem of forming and coordinating the target indicators of the agro-industrial complex is outlined, some calculation results are given. The main results of the work are: the formulation of the tasks of adapting the agro-industrial complex to climate change, the model for optimizing the functioning of the “crop industry—processing industry” system, developed to solve the problem of forming and coordinating target indicators for the development of the regional agro-industrial complex.KeywordsClimate changeAgro-industrial complexObjectives of the adaptation planFormation and coordination of target indicators

Object: to analyze the mechanisms of the impact of climate change on demographic processes and to determine methods for reducing their consequences for the demographic state of society. Methods: review of literature data on the results of analysis and forecast of climate change, as well as its consequences for human health. Also, analysis of the influence of other global factors on the demographic state of society. Results: the analysis of the problem of adaptation to climate change of demographic processes was carried out. Conclusions: under the influence of climatic factors, powerful migration flows from the islands and coastal zones of the oceans will be formed. Due to the rise in the level of the world ocean and the increase in the power of hurricanes, the likelihood of the disappearance of island nations in the oceans will increase significantly. Also, under the influence of these phenomena, there will be an expansion of the area of the coastal zone along the oceans with unfavorable living conditions. With the frequent and intense impact of these factors, the flows that will be directed to neighboring countries that are less affected by these factors.KeywordsChanging of the climateAgricultureAgro-industrial complexAdaptationGoals, objectives of the adaptation planInformation supportMethods and results of the solution