Luke O'Grady’s research while affiliated with University of Nottingham and other places

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Publications (95)


Example of best worst scaling weightings for a single question on investigation of a clinical disease outbreak.
An example of an animal introduction summary figure from a BioscoreDairy report. Animal introductions are based on the number of animals bought in (first frame) and the number of source herds (frames two and three). For each farm, these metrics are compared to 50 other similar comparable herds in the same herd category [(27) classification system). The distribution of these data for the comparator herds are shown as grey bars in the three frames. The position of the individual example herd in each graph frame is indicated by the yellow bar. The green line represents the position of the lowest-risk (10th percentile) herds, the black line indicates the position of the average herd, and the red line indicates the position of the highest-risk (90th percentile) herds, nationally.
An example of a biosecurity score summary, from a farm BioscoreDairy report. The example farm score percentages for disease diagnosis, infection introduction risk and speed of infection spread risk, are a percentage of the maximum score percentage possible for each of these sections. These example farm score percentages are benchmarked against other comparable herds in the BioscoreDairy database. Higher score percentages indicate lower risk. The distribution of score percentages for the comparator herds are colour-coded into low risk [<33rd percentile (green); average risk between the 33rd and 67th percentile (amber); and high risk >67th percentile (red)].
Use of conjoint analysis to weight biosecurity practices on pasture-based dairy farms to develop a novel audit tool—BioscoreDairy
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  • Full-text available

December 2024

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25 Reads

Siobhan M. O Donovan

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Conor G. McAloon

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Luke O'Grady

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[...]

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John F. Mee

Risk assessments are important tools to identify deficits in biosecurity management practices. A major strength of some existing tools is that they facilitate cross-country comparisons. However, a weakness is their failure to account for unique intra-national farming enterprise structures such as, for example, pasture-based dairying. Currently, there are no suitable biosecurity risk assessment tools applicable to pasture-based dairying as practiced in Ireland. In addition to a need for enterprise-specific biosecurity risk assessment tools, the weighting of risk scores generated by these tools needs to be context-specific to ensure validity in assessing biosecurity risks in the farming sector of interest. Furthermore, existing biosecurity audits rely exclusively on respondent recall to answer questions about management practices. To address each of these limitations of existing biosecurity risk assessment tools we developed and optimised a new biosecurity risk assessment tool (BioscoreDairy) designed to assess the biosecurity status of pasture-based dairy farms in Ireland. It consists of two parts, a biosecurity questionnaire and a cattle movement records audit. A questionnaire was developed on biosecurity management practices appropriate for a pasture-based dairy system. Multiple national expert groups were leveraged to provide weightings for the different management practices in the questionnaire using the best-worst scaling methodology of MaxDiff. The results of this process provided a numerical categorisation that could then be used to assign scores to the individual biosecurity management practices. These practices were grouped into three biosecurity areas; risk of disease entry, speed of disease spread and diagnosis of infection. Within each of these three areas, a traffic light system was used to compare a farm’s biosecurity risks to other similar farms—least risk (green; within the top third of farms), concerning practice (amber; middle third) and worst practice or greatest risk (red; lowest third). In addition to these scores, the cattle introduction profile of a herd over the previous 3 years, based on nationally recorded data, was audited, compared amongst dairy farm enterprise subtypes, and included in the BioscoreDairy report. BioscoreDairy is therefore the first biosecurity risk assessment tool tailored to pasture-based dairy farm systems, both for individual farm reporting and for benchmarking against comparable farms.

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Herd-Level Risk Factors Associated with Mycoplasma bovis Serostatus in Youngstock on Irish Dairy Farms

October 2024

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10 Reads

Mycoplasma bovis is a globally significant pathogen of cattle associated with a wide range of clinical syndromes, including respiratory disease, mastitis, arthritis, otitis, and reproductive failure. Since its detection in Ireland in 1994, M. bovis has become a significant contributor to morbidity and mortality in Irish cattle. This study aimed to investigate herd-level risk factors associated with M. bovis seropositivity in replacement dairy heifers, using data from 105 Irish dairy herds. Ten heifers per herd were sampled on three occasions: spring 2018, spring 2019, and autumn 2019. Seropositivity was evaluated using two thresholds: ≥1 positive heifer (Model ≥ 1POS) and ≥3 positive heifers (Model ≥ 3POS). M. bovis seropositivity varied over time, with at least one positive heifer in 50.4% (95% confidence interval (CI): 40.5–60.3) of herds in spring 2018, 35.2% (95% CI: 26.2–45.1) in spring 2019, and 45.7% (95% CI: 36.0–55.7) in autumn 2019. Herds with three or more positive heifers increased from 31.4% (95%CI: 22.7–41.2) in spring 2018 to 42.9% (95% CI: 33.2–52.9) by autumn 2019. Risk factors for M. bovis seropositivity included the purchase of cattle, which significantly raised the odds of seropositivity across multiple visit periods (Model ≥ 1POS: Odds ratio (OR) 3.84, p = 0.02; Model ≥ 3POS: OR 3.69, p = 0.02). Managing more than three land parcels, housing heifer calves separately from bull calves, and sharing airspace between calves and older animals also increased seropositivity risks. Conversely, more colostrum feeds reduced the risk of seropositivity (Model ≥ 1POS: OR 0.81, p = 0.05), while colostrum quality assessment and feeding waste milk showed a trend toward increased risk. These findings suggest the importance of robust biosecurity measures, including limiting cattle purchases, improving calf management, and enhancing colostrum feeding practices, to control the spread of M. bovis. This study provides valuable insights into the epidemiology of M. bovis in Irish dairy herds, emphasising the need for targeted biosecurity and surveillance to safeguard herd productivity.




Simulated scenarios by input prevalence and duration parameters used in the simulation.
Using Object-Oriented Simulation to Assess the Impact of the Frequency and Accuracy of Mobility Scoring on the Estimation of Epidemiological Parameters for Lameness in Dairy Herds

June 2024

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58 Reads

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2 Citations

Simple Summary The standard method for monitoring lameness in U.K. dairy herds is mobility scoring. Data from mobility scoring can be used to estimate the proportion of cows in the herd that are lame (prevalence), the rate at which cows become lame (incidence), and how long cows remain lame (duration). It is unknown how the frequency and accuracy of mobility scoring impact the accuracy of measurement of these parameters. We developed a model to simulate lameness in a range of herd scenarios with different prevalences and durations of lameness. We used this model to understand how the frequency and accuracy of mobility scoring affected the accuracy of lameness parameters calculated from mobility scoring data. Our results showed that reduced accuracy of mobility scoring results in an over-estimation of lameness incidence and an under-estimation of lameness duration. This effect increased with more frequent scoring. Lameness prevalence and the average number of days to first lameness best identified lameness patterns when simulating monthly mobility scoring. We conclude that the frequency and accuracy of mobility scoring should be considered when using mobility scoring data to inform on lameness patterns on farms. Abstract Mobility scoring data can be used to estimate the prevalence, incidence, and duration of lameness in dairy herds. Mobility scoring is often performed infrequently with variable sensitivity, but how this impacts the estimation of lameness parameters is largely unknown. We developed a simulation model to investigate the impact of the frequency and accuracy of mobility scoring on the estimation of lameness parameters for different herd scenarios. Herds with a varying prevalence (10, 30, or 50%) and duration (distributed around median days 18, 36, 54, 72, or 108) of lameness were simulated at daily time steps for five years. The lameness parameters investigated were prevalence, duration, new case rate, time to first lameness, and probability of remaining sound in the first year. True parameters were calculated from daily data and compared to those calculated when replicating different frequencies (weekly, two-weekly, monthly, quarterly), sensitivities (60–100%), and specificities (95–100%) of mobility scoring. Our results showed that over-estimation of incidence and under-estimation of duration can occur when the sensitivity and specificity of mobility scoring are <100%. This effect increases with more frequent scoring. Lameness prevalence was the only parameter that could be estimated with reasonable accuracy when simulating quarterly mobility scoring. These findings can help inform mobility scoring practices and the interpretation of mobility scoring data.




Quantification of the effect of in-utero events on lifetime resilience in dairy cows

February 2024

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34 Reads

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1 Citation

Journal of Dairy Science

Currently, the dairy industry is facing many challenges that could affect its sustainability, including climate change and public perception of the industry. As a result, interest is increasing in the concept of identifying resilient animals, those with a long productive lifespan, as well as good reproductive performance and milk yield. There is much evidence that events in utero, that is, the developmental origins of health and disease hypothesis, alter the life-course health of offspring and we hypothesized that these could alter resilience in calves, where resilience is identified using lifetime data. The aim of this study was to quantify lifetime resilience scores (LRS) using an existing scoring system, based on longevity with secondary corrections for age at first calving and calving interval, and to quantify the effects of in utero events on the LRS using 2 datasets. The first was a large dataset of cattle on 83 farms in Great Britain born from 2006 to 2015 and the second was a smaller, more granular dataset of cattle born between 2003 and 2015 in the Langhill research herd at Scotland's Rural College. Events during dam's pregnancy included health events (lameness, mastitis, use of an antibiotic or anti-inflammatory medication), the effect of heat stress as measured by temperature-humidity index, and perturbations in milk yield and quality (somatic cell count, percentage fat, percentage protein and fat:protein ratio). Daughters born to dams that experienced higher temperature-humidity indexes while they were in utero during the first and third trimesters of pregnancy had lower LRS. Daughter LRS were also lower where milk yields or median fat percentages in the first trimester were low, and when milk yields were high in the third trimester. Dam LRS was positively associated with LRS of their offspring; however, as parity of the dam increased, LRS of their calves decreased. Similarly, in the Langhill herd, dams of a higher parity produced calves with lower LRS. Additionally, dams that recorded a high maximum locomotion score in the third trimester of pregnancy were negatively associated with lower calf LRS in the Langhill herd. Our results suggest that events that occur during pregnancy have lifelong consequences for the calf's lifetime performance. However, experience of higher temperature-humidity indexes, higher dam LRS, and mothers in higher parities explained a relatively small proportion of variation in offspring LRS, which suggests that other factors play a substantial role in determining calf LRS. Although “big data” can contain a considerable amount of noise, similar findings between the 2 datasets indicate it is likely these findings are real.


Citations (73)


... Despite these encouraging results, the application of mastitis-prediction ML models in real-life conditions remains limited because of a discrepancy between the performance on the training and validation datasets and the actual data. The nature of data recording by sensor systems and the low occurrence of the disease appear as major reasons for the difference [18]. ...

Reference:

Influence of Preprocessing Methods of Automated Milking Systems Data on Prediction of Mastitis with Machine Learning Models
Predictive modelling of deviation from expected milk yield in transition cows on automatic milking systems
  • Citing Article
  • February 2024

Preventive Veterinary Medicine

... Lameness in cattle is a clinical sign caused by a variety of disease processes [1], all inducing pain, hyperalgesia and compromising welfare, but with many of the causes able to be mitigated by timely treatment [2,3]. Foot lesions are the most common cause of lameness in cattle, but the presence of lesions is poorly correlated with lameness [4]. Some foot lesions are always associated with lameness and are termed 'alarm lesions' [5]. ...

Sensitivity and specificity of mobility scoring for the detection of foot lesions in pasture based Irish dairy cows

Journal of Dairy Science

... Nevertheless, the season of the year considerably affects the food intake [29]. SCC is influenced by many factors, such as cattle breed, level of milk production, stage and order of lactation, season, month of measurement, individual and environmental factors, teat and udder morphology, as well as management practices [30,31,32,33]. ...

The use of machine learning to predict somatic cell count status in dairy cows post-calving

... Biosecurity implementation is a priority in many larger calf-rearing facilities to control bovine respiratory disease (BRD), and vaccination programs for BRD have reduced the severity and morbidity attributed to this disease (Lehenbauer, 2014). Finally, in Ireland, calf mortality rates were seen to decrease in dairy herds that implemented biosecurity protocols to prevent paratuberculosis, through the Irish Johne's Control Program (McAloon et al., 2023). ...

An observational study of ear-tagged calf mortality (1 to 100 days) on Irish dairy farms and associations between biosecurity practices and calf mortality on farms participating in a Johne's disease control program
  • Citing Article
  • May 2023

Journal of Dairy Science

... However, during testing, we found that retaining features selected in anywhere from 40% and 50% of subsamples produced nearly identical model outcomes. Recent studies have demonstrated stability selection to work well in a range of different data sets (e.g., Ahmed et al., 2011;Gilhodes et al., 2020;Hofner et al., 2015;Hyde et al., 2022;Lu et al., 2017;Ryali et al., 2012;Yin et al., 2022). ...

Stability selection for mixed effect models with large numbers of predictor variables: A simulation study
  • Citing Article
  • July 2022

Preventive Veterinary Medicine

... Telecontact with these farmers resulted in a database of 120 SDFs and 85 CFs. A total of 66 SDFs and 54 CFs were recruited from the database to participate in a longitudinal study of the animal health and production implications of contract-rearing [18][19][20][21][22]. The recruited farms were distributed across all 4 provinces and 19 of the 26 counties of the Republic of Ireland, with the largest density of farms located in County Cork, reflecting the distribution of the national dairy cow population. ...

Growth rates of contract-reared versus home-reared replacement dairy heifers
  • Citing Article
  • July 2022

animal

... In previous research, the historical baseline data has been defined after the removal of extreme data points after visual inspections of time series [40]. In some studies, the preprocessing consisted of removing data associated with known disease outbreaks or positive laboratory results for pathogens [41][42][43][44]. Other studies determined cutoffs for the removal of aberrational data based on quantiles of a fitted model using the whole dataset, and that can account, for instance, for seasonality or other response variables [36,43,45]. ...

Development of a syndromic surveillance system for Irish dairy cattle using milk recording data
  • Citing Article
  • May 2022

Preventive Veterinary Medicine

... In similar studies where the diagnosis of endometritis was solely based on the observation of purulent vaginal secretions, endometritis led to an increase in days open (Giuliodori et al., 2013;LeBlanc et al., 2002;McDougall et al., 2020). Contrary to our study Kelly et al. (2022) found ultrasonography to be a suitable method for diagnosing endometritis, so that Irish grazing dairy cows that had intrauterine fluid during ultrasound examination had lower chance of pregnancy within the subsequent breeding season than normal cows. Of course, in the present study by Day 143 postpartum, 50% of the clinical endometritis-negative cows were pregnant, however, but this time was 161 days postpartum for the positive-endometritis group. ...

Reproductive tract disease in Irish grazing dairy cows: Retrospective observational study examining its association with reproductive performance and accuracy of 2 diagnostic tests
  • Citing Article
  • April 2022

Journal of Dairy Science

... New approaches like selective DCT are encouraged due to concerns about the use of antimicrobials on farms and the introduction of the new Veterinary Medicines legislation (Regulation (EU) 2019/6) to prevent the development of AMR. However, this poses new challenges, particularly in herds with suboptimal mastitis control, and a better understanding of the epidemiology of mastitis pathogens present in a particular farm is, therefore, key [15]. We found that the seasonality patterns and antimicrobial resistance results obtained in previous years on the same herd can be useful tools for private veterinary practitioners (PVP) to decide on appropriate therapeutic treatment of mastitis cases. ...

Mastitis Control and Intramammary Antimicrobial Stewardship in Ireland: Challenges and Opportunities

... In this study, none of the variables was statistically significant. However, in other conducted studies, some other variables were checked, such as herd size and the number of neighbouring farms (19), corporation-type farms, and purchased cattle (21), which were significant risk factors for seropositivity to M. bovis. ...

Seroprevalence of Mycoplasma bovis in bulk milk samples in Irish dairy herds and risk factors associated with herd seropositive status
  • Citing Article
  • March 2022

Journal of Dairy Science